WPAC: JONGDARI - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

A new invest has been declared in the monsoon trough SE of Guam.

96W INVEST 180719 1200 11.0N 149.0E WPAC 15 0

[euro6208]

A weak circulation to the southeast of Guam has brought scattered
showers to Guam and Rota this morning. As the disturbance slowly
drifts toward the northwest over the next few days, slow development
is expected. this circulation will maintain increased showers over
Guam and Rota thru tonight, with isolated showers expected to return
by Saturday morning. At this time, the majority of the showers and
the risk of thunderstorms is expected to remain south of Tinian and
Saipan. Current model guidance shows little development with this
disturbance until it is well northwest of the Marianas.

As the circulation tracks further northwest, it will drag the
monsoon trough farther north over the Marianas. This will bring
another round of scattered showers to the Marianas Sunday and
continue thru Monday night. Latest GFS run shows quite a bit of rain
over the islands for the beginning of next week. If this holds true,
shower coverage may need to be increased for Monday and Monday night.
A much drier pattern is then likely to return to the region around
the middle of next week.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1N 146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 180002Z MHS METOP-A
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LLC. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
SEVERAL 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) WILL AID FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS EXPRESS THAT 96W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE NEXT 48-72HRS AND TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, SKIRTING GUAM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

96W INVEST
As of 12:00 UTC Jul 20, 2018:

Location: 11.3°N 143.9°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb

[euro6208]

Well the EURO has this getting absorbed by 97W as a 1000 mb system while GFS goes bonkers with this. No interaction deepens to 889 mb just east of the Marianas.

[euro6208]

Invest 96W is now to the south-southwest of Guam and continuing to
drift westward. Another Invest area, 97W, is northeast of Guam near
19N159E. A third weak disturbance is identified on the latest ASCAT
analysis near 13N159E. these systems will drift westward over the
next few days. Latest model guidance shows 97W developing after it
moves northward, to the east of Minami Tori Shima. 96W looks to
develop further once it moves west and northwest of the islands.

[mrbagyo]

Consolidating...


Looks this could spin up fast.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 141.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 141.1E, APPROXIMATELY
245 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION
AND LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO APPEAR. A 210042Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT
SHALLOW CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE,
LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME MODELS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST
BEFORE HEADING NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 210903
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 21/0830Z

C. 11.7N

D. 140.6E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. GREATER THAN 0.2 CURVED BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT
ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[euro6208]

WTPN22 PGTW 211300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210721Z JUL 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 210730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 140.8E TO 17.2N 137.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.6N 140.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 141.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 140.5E, APPROXIMATELY
190 NM NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND
LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. A 210837Z 91GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER AND SHALLOW
CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE,
LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AS TO THE EXACT
TRACK THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE, SHOWING A NORTH-NORTHWESTERN OR
NORTHWESTERN TRACK, WITH A FEW OUTLIERS TAKING THE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 105.6E.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN34 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE EAST
OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP. A 211746Z 91GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL LOW REFLECTIVITY
AREA WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE DEEPEST OF
WHICH IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND T1.0 (25 KNOTS) FROM KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
TD 14W HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED DUE EAST OF THE LLCC, INHIBITING
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (27-28 CELSIS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. TD 14W IS TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT
OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INITIALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH
TAU 36 BEFORE THE TRACK SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM TAU 36 TO 48 BEFORE
FINALLY TRUNING BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48. ALONG
TRACK SPEED WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 KNOTS DURING THE FIRST 72
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EXTENSION OF THE STR LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY UNDER MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGH, HOWEVER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES ARE LOW. DUE TO THE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM OHC
VALUES ARE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH TAU
72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72.
THERE ARE SLIGHT VARIATIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES
SEVERAL MINOR DIRECTION SHIFTS BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTH-
NORTHWEST. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS EGRR WHICH IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST OF THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS. DUE TO THE VARIATIONS
BETWEEN CONSENSUS MEMBERS AND THE EGRR OUTLIER, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 14W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AS THE STEERING STR BUILDS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 70 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96.
AFTER PEAKING AT TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST, INTRODUCING
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, AFTER
TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO AN AREA OF COOLER (< 26 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL INCREASE THE WEAKENING TREND.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENREAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK DIRECTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN GUIDANCE BY TAU 96, AND AN EVEN GREATER SPREAD
AT TAU 120. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

Wrong system. 14W is 97W. 96W is the one near Guam.

[cycloneye]

Fixed it.

[Yellow Evan]

Both GFS and ECMWF seem to agree on something respectable coming out of this as it drifts north.

[euro6208]

Upgraded to 15W...

15W FIFTEEN 180722 0000 12.9N 138.3E WPAC 25 1005

[1900hurricane]

I'm not quite sure this is ready for classification yet. ASCAT should be coming in soon, so maybe that will give some clarity.

[cycloneye]

JTWC forecasts a Typhoon from this.

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CIRRUS COMPLETELY
OBSCURING THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED MSI AND A 211921Z GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE THAT SUGGESTS SOME
FORMATIVE BANDING MAY BE STARTING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT IT
IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THE LLCC IS LOCATED. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR TD 15W ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM SSTS (29-30C). TD 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED STR THROUGH TAU 120. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE AND TD 15W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO
70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS TWO POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS. THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM DEVELOP A STRONG NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE WHICH DOMINATES THE STEERING AND BRINGS THE TRACK MORE
EASTERLY WHILE GFS, UKMET, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND HWRF FOLLOW MORE
CLOSELY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. THE MORE WESTWARD SOLUTION WAS
CHOSEN BECAUSE MORE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AND MORE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FAVORED THIS TRACK. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST AND THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AT 65 KNOTS. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN WITH OVER 1000 NM SEPARATING THE HWRF AND NAVGEM MODEL BY
TAU 120. FOR THIS REASON, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

This is NOT a tropical depression. JTWC unofficial. JMA calling it a low pressure area. From their text

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 23N 160E NORTH SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 15N 140E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1008 HPA AT 44N 138E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 30N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 56N 143E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/MlV9OgJ
GFS thinks this is the disturbance that will go on to flourish.

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST AND OBSCURE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TD 15W. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 220600Z
HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING WEAK LOW LEVEL CLOUD
BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 15W HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT LIMITED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE.
VWS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH RANGES FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS WHICH IS CURRENTLY
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 15W
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN COMPETING
STEERING FEATURES WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST DUE TO A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE.
B. TD 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STRS. THERE IS A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TD 15W WILL
STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THROUGH TAU 72,
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, NAVGEM AND GFS, INDICATE
A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, WHILE COAMPS AND AFUM INDICATE A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE GROUPING OF MODELS THAT
INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC FORECAST IS
HEDGED TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS SKEWED TO
THE EAST DUE TO THE COAMPS AND AFUM OUTLIERS. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD
IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TD
15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE STR TO THE EAST BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN. TD 15 WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE. BEYOND TAU
72, ECMWF, WHICH HAD BEEN IN LINE WITH NAVGEM AND GFS PRIOR TO TAU
72, FORECASTS A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST WITH POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH
TS 14W. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN