WPAC: WUKONG - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: WUKONG - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:44 pm

97W INVEST 180720 0000 16.7N 158.4E WPAC 15 1010



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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:05 am

EURO deepens this to 966 mb after swallowing 96W just south of Japan.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 21, 2018 5:16 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.3N 158.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 158.5E, APPROXIMATELY
1008 NM EAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS COMPLETED
EXPOSED WITH CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE EAST. A 210300Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. A 202220Z OSCAT
PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10-15 KNOT
WINDS WITH SOME 20 KNOT WINDS PRESENT TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD DIVERGENCE,
LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME MODELS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST
BEFORE HEADING NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:05 am

TXPQ25 KNES 210929
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 21/0830Z

C. 20.0N

D. 158.8E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SHEARED PATTERN WITH LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LESS
THAN 75 NM FROM A SMALL AREA OF COLD CONVECTION YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM
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WPAC: 14W - Tropical Depression

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:28 pm

Image

WDPN34 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE EAST
OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP. A 211746Z 91GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL LOW REFLECTIVITY
AREA WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE DEEPEST OF
WHICH IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND T1.0 (25 KNOTS) FROM KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
TD 14W HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED DUE EAST OF THE LLCC, INHIBITING
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (27-28 CELSIS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. TD 14W IS TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT
OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INITIALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH
TAU 36 BEFORE THE TRACK SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM TAU 36 TO 48 BEFORE
FINALLY TRUNING BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48. ALONG
TRACK SPEED WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 KNOTS DURING THE FIRST 72
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EXTENSION OF THE STR LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY UNDER MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGH, HOWEVER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES ARE LOW. DUE TO THE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM OHC
VALUES ARE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH TAU
72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72.
THERE ARE SLIGHT VARIATIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES
SEVERAL MINOR DIRECTION SHIFTS BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTH-
NORTHWEST. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS EGRR WHICH IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST OF THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS. DUE TO THE VARIATIONS
BETWEEN CONSENSUS MEMBERS AND THE EGRR OUTLIER, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 14W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AS THE STEERING STR BUILDS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 70 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96.
AFTER PEAKING AT TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST, INTRODUCING
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, AFTER
TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO AN AREA OF COOLER (< 26 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL INCREASE THE WEAKENING TREND.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENREAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK DIRECTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN GUIDANCE BY TAU 96, AND AN EVEN GREATER SPREAD
AT TAU 120. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 14w - Tropical Depression

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:28 am

Image

Upgraded to a TS

WDPN34 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 338 NM EAST
OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
EAST OF AN EXPOSED AND ELONGATED (EAST-WEST) LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO
THE ELONGATION OF THE EXPOSED LLCC SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP, SUPPORTED
BY A 220501Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 IS HEDGED JUST HIGHER THAN A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30
KNOTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (32
KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 14W HAS STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WHICH IS ENHANCED BY A LARGE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL THAT IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE (20-25 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WHICH IS CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO SHEAR INTO THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (27-28 CELSIUS). TS
14W IS TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INITIALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH
TAU 48 BEFORE THE TRACK SHIFTS MORE NORTHWESTWARD. INITIAL ALONG
TRACK SPEED WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 6 AND 8 KNOTS DURING THE FIRST
72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 14W WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 72. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 72; HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES
ARE LOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
TAU 72, AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BY
THE TUTT CELL TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 14W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 65 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU
72 AND TAU 96. AFTER PEAKING AT TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST, INTRODUCING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, AFTER TAU 80, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF 35
DEGREES LATITUDE, WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME UNFAVORABLE
(< 26 CELSIUS) AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. AFTER TAU 72, THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS BEGIN TO SPREAD, LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BY TAU 96,
AND AN EVEN GREATER SPREAD AT TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND DUE TO THE SPREAD IN
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 14w - Tropical Depression

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:50 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: 14w - Tropical Depression

#8 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 22, 2018 6:55 am

EURO deepens this to 978 mb as it tracks to the north well to the east of Japan.
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Re: WPAC: 14w - Tropical Depression

#9 Postby NotoSans » Sun Jul 22, 2018 12:54 pm

JMA now expects it to become a tropical storm within 24 hours.
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Re: WPAC: 14w - Tropical Depression

#10 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:50 pm

WDPN34 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST
OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A PERSISTENT, EXPANSIVE REGION OF CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) BASED ON AN ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.4 (34 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT TS 14W HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS ENHANCED BY A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT IS LOCATED DUE
EAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE (20-30 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY ANOTHER,
WEAKER, TUTT CELL THAT IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE TUTT
TO THE WEST IS SHEARING THE CONVECTION COMPLETELY INTO THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO EXHIBIT SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LIKE THE EXPANSIVE ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) AND
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. TS 14W IS TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF AN EXTENSION OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INITIALLY NORTH THROUGH TAU 24
BEFORE THE TRACK BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE TUTT CELL TO THE WEST,
CAUSING VWS TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ALONG TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE (26-27 CELSIUS) AND
14W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GOOD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 72. THE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES A PEAK OF 60
KNOTS AROUND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, HOWEVER, OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD WHILE THE FORECAST CALLED FOR A DUE NORTH
TRACK. DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TRACK AND THE FORECASTED
TRACK BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 14W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER PEAKING
AT TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND, THE
RESULT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE
NORTH OF 35 DEGREES LATITUDE, WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME
UNFAVORABLE (< 26 CELSIUS) WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING
TREND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST; HOWEVER, THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS BEGIN TO SPREAD
BY TAU 72 LEADING TO A LARGE SPREAD BY TAU 96. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, HOWEVER, THE
SPREAD IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 14w - Tropical Depression

#11 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:05 am

Image

Now forecast to become a typhoon...

WDPN34 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION COVERING UP THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND EXTENDING 450 NM EASTWARD IN THE SHAPE OF A
COMMA-CLOUD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE ASYMMETRIC AND OBSCURED NATURE OF THE LLCC EVIDENT IN THE MSI
LOOP. THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 230635Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWING THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED
ON IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SUPPORTED BY A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 14W
HAS A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH IS ENHANCED BY A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (10-20 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WHICH HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
AS THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL. THIS
TUTT CELL HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN CAUSING HIGH VWS AND PREVENTING
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO EXHIBIT
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LIKE THE EXPANSIVE ASYMMETRIC WIND
FIELD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE (27-29
CELSIUS) FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. TS 14W IS TRACKING NORTH
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF AN EXTENSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 AT WHICH TIME THE TRACK BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
NORTH OF THE TUTT CELL TO THE WEST, CAUSING VWS TO FURTHER DECREASE.
ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27-28
CELSIUS) AND 14W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GOOD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU
48. THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
REACHES A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS AROUND TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND, THE RESULT OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
ADDITIONALLY, BY TAU 60 THE SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH OF 35 DEGREES
LATITUDE, WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME UNFAVORABLE (< 26
CELSIUS) WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND HAS ACCELERATED THE ETT AS THE
APPROACHING TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM EARLIER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INITIAL POSITION
DUE TO THE ASYMMETRIC LLCC, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 14w - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:05 am

TPPN11 PGTW 231210

A. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NE OF GUAM)

B. 23/1140Z

C. 27.88N

D. 159.38E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .75 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING A 3.0.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/0635Z 26.48N 158.90E SSMS
23/0721Z 26.57N 158.95E WIND
23/0803Z 26.65N 159.13E SSMS


LEMBKE
TXPQ25 KNES 230901
TCSWNP

A. 14W (NONAME)

B. 23/0830Z

C. 26.8N

D. 159.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SHEARED PATTERN WITH TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER
VERY CLOSE TO A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET=2.0
AND PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM
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Re: WPAC: 14w - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:07 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: 14w - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:27 am

Finally JMA upgrades...TS 14W gets a name...Wukong...
Last edited by euro6208 on Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: 14w - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:28 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: 14w - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:31 am

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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby NotoSans » Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:50 pm

Looks like a T3.0 and a severe tropical storm to me. JMA has been lagging behind for the active tropical systems these few days.
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:53 pm

Image

WDPN34 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG)
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM
NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, WRAPPING FROM THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE INTO A LARGE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS THAT IS LOCATED
OVER TOP OF AND OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR
LOOP AND A 231741Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL LOW REFLECTIVITY AREA THAT LOOKS TO BE A
FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED
ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A
231740Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
TS 14W HAS A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH IS ENHANCED BY A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WHICH HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, AND IS
TRACKING THOUGH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS
14W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF AN
EXTENSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH TIME THE TRACK BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STEERING STR TRANSITS TO
THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 CELSIUS) REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE
TRACK, VWS IS LOW, AND OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG. THE SYSTEM WILL
REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AS IT TRACKS INTO UNFAVORABLE
(<26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36 AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AT WHICH TIME IT WILL BE A COLD
CORE LOW WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:46 pm

Reminds me a bit of Conson '16.
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Re: WPAC: Wukong - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby Twisted-core » Tue Jul 24, 2018 12:57 am

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