WPAC: Tropical Depression 13W - Dissipated

[doomhaMwx]

98W INVEST 180720 0600 18.5N 115.0E WPAC 15 0

[euro6208]

That was fast.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.5N 115.0E, APPROXIMATELY 217 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 98W IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PERSISTENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. A RECENT
ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODEL INDICATE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPACT SYSTEM WITHIN 48-72 HOURS WITH A NORTHEAST
TRAJECTORY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[doomhaMwx]

[doomhaMwx]

This is now a weak TD by JMA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 19N 116E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[euro6208]

98W INVEST
As of 12:00 UTC Jul 20, 2018:

Location: 18.3°N 116.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

[mrbagyo]

98w is developing fast - I can see a TCFA in the next advisory, I also won't be surprised if this got numbered by JTWC

[euro6208]

EURO brings this inland Taiwan while GFS is further east...Okinawa, Miyako yet again...

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 200907
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 20/0830Z

C. 18.8N

D. 116.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SHEARED PATTERN WITH ILL DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER VERY CLOSE
TO A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5.
FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN CENTER POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[mrbagyo]

13W

13W THIRTEEN 180720 1800 17.8N 117.2E WPAC 25 1000

[euro6208]

WOW

WDPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
291 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND
TO THE EAST. A 201353Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A CLEAR LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AREAS OF 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH,
EAST, AND SOUTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS
AND THE 201800Z PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25
KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR TD 13W ARE FAVORABLE, WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS (29-30C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 13W IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO THE EAST
BY THE REVERSE-ORIENTED MONSOON TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS, TD 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FOLLOWING THE MONSOON TROUGH, GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INTENSIFYING TO 65 KNOTS AS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. BEYOND
TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER JAPAN WILL TAKE OVER
STEERING AND TURN THE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
OVERALL MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK WITH THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INTENSIFYING THE CYCLONE MORE AND TRACKING IT MORE
TO THE WEST THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE FORECAST TRACK MORE CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODELS WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST MORE CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE MESOSCALE MODELS. BASED ON THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR OVER JAPAN WILL CONTINUE TO STEER 13W
TO THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING IT ASHORE OVER CHINA BETWEEN TAU 72 AND
96 AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM BEFORE DISSIPATING IT OVER LAND BY TAU
120. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY, LENDING TO LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC
FORECAST.
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Imagine if this is about 4° to 5° south of its current location.

[1900hurricane]

That would be a not fun time for the Manilla area. Even as it stands now, they could get socked with a bunch of rain in the southwest monsoon tail trailing 13W if it orients itself in just the right (wrong) way.

[Twisted-core]

WTPQ20 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 18.2N 118.8E FAIR
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 20.6N 121.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[euro6208]

Big change. No longer expected to become a typhoon.

WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION STARTING TO APPEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SUSTAINED CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 202257Z SSMIS 91 GHZ CONFIRMS THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND INDICATES THE BANDING TO THE SOUTH IS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
210000Z PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS).
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR TD 13W ARE FAVORABLE, WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS (29-30C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 13W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD IN THE
REVERSE-ORIENTED MONSOON TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE BUT THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER PEAK INTENSITIES IN THE MESOSCALE
MODELS.
B. TD 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND BEGIN TURNING TO THE NORTH THROUGH TAU 36. DURING THIS PERIOD,
THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY TO 45 KNOTS BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AS
IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH. BEYOND TAU 36, THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR, NEARING LANDFALL IN
CHINA BY TAU 72. THE MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT TD
13W WILL BE A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
INTENSITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE LIMITED FORECAST GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR OVER JAPAN WILL CONTINUE TO STEER 13W
TO THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING IT ASHORE OVER CHINA JUST AFTER TAU 72
AS A 30 KNOT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 96. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, THE
LIMITED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HIGH UNCERTAINTY, LENDING TO
LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Heavy rain accompanied by strong winds here in Baguio/Benguet due to 13W+SW Monsoon.

[euro6208]

The flooding in the Philippines is massive. Knee deep around the metro.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO A LARGE
CLOUD SHIELD WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 210550Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE TIGHTLY DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0
(30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 13W IS
DEVELOPING BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 5 TO
10 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 13W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE AFOREMENTIONED NER WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
FEATURE THROUGH TAU 24. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME TD 13W WILL EXPERIENCE
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KNOTS DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. TD 13W WILL TRACK TO
THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR. TD 13W WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA SHORTLY
BEFORE TAU 72. THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 13W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AND ALSO REMAIN OVER LAND. TD 13W WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 OVER
EASTERN CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 211229

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (NW OF LUZON)

B. 21/1200Z

C. 19.12N

D. 120.52E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/18HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES WITH DT WHILE MET YIELDS A 1.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/0736Z 18.62N 120.33E GPMI
21/0938Z 18.60N 120.53E WIND
21/1010Z 18.92N 120.72E SSMS


LEMBKE


TXPQ24 KNES 210916
TCSWNP

A. 13W (NONAME)

B. 21/0830Z

C. 18.8N

D. 120.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/GMI

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CONVECTION WRAPS 0.8 ON LOG10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF 3.5. MET=2.5 AND
PT=3.0. FT IS BASED ON PT AS CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

21/0736Z 18.8N 120.3E GMI


...KIM

DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20180721 0830 18.8 -120.4 T3.0/3.0 13W NONAME
20180721 0230 17.7 -119.2 T3.0/3.0 13W NONAME
20180720 2030 18.0 -117.8 T2.0/2.0 13W NONAME
20180720 1430 18.3 -117.7 T1.5/1.5 98W 98W

[euro6208]

Mmm...

[euro6208]

Big difference between JTWC and SSD. JT at 1.5 while SSD is at 2.5. SSD went as high as 3.5...