WPAC: SOULIK - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

99W INVEST 180813 0000 12.0N 153.0E WPAC 15 0

[mrbagyo]

This disturbance is still alive but im not sure if this or 90W will develop into a TC which would probably threaten the Marianas

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0N
150.5E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140346Z AMSR2 89 GHZ
PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE
TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH CONSOLIDATION
LIKELY SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 46 AND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

99W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 14, 2018:

Location: 9.4°N 149.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

[mrbagyo]

Consolidating

[euro6208]

WTPN22 PGTW 142230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/142200Z AUG 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
142200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 147.6E TO 15.2N 139.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 146.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N
148.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 148.0E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 142047Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEPENING
CONVECTION ABOVE A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH
A BROAD REGION OF CONVECTION EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. VWS IS FAVORABLY LOW (5-10 KTS). A TUTT TO THE
NORTH IS AIDING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SSTS ARE VERY WARM (27-29 CELSIUS)
IN THE MARIANAS REGION AND ARE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A COMPLICATED PICTURE, AS 99W INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER ILL-
DEFINED DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST. THE NEAR TERM TRACK IS GENERALLY
WESTWARD, THEN NORTHWARD THEREAFTER AS THE TWO SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO
INTERACT AS DIFFERENT MODELS DEPICT THE TWO DISTURBANCES EITHER
MERGING OR DEVELOPING INDEPENDENTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
152230Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 127.5E.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 142351
SPSMY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
951 AM ChST Wed Aug 15 2018

GUZ001>004-160000-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
951 AM ChST Wed Aug 15 2018

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 220 MILES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM IS CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A
LARGE AREA FROM THE MARIANA ISLANDS ACROSS YAP AND CHUUK STATES.

THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY SO MONSOON WINDS
AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
FOR THE MARIANA ISLANDS. ALSO...SEA CONDITIONS COULD BECOME ROUGH
AND HAZARDOUS BY THURSDAY IN THE MARIANA COASTAL WATERS.

WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET ARE LIKELY AS THIS
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. THE CIRCULATION IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TCFA
(TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT) FROM JTWC (JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER). DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE MARIANAS AS THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY BEFORE DEVELOPING ENOUGH.

RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANAS
SHOULD KEEP INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

SIMPSON/STANKO

[Yellow Evan]

14/2030 UTC 10.6N 146.5E T1.0/1.0 99W -- West Pacific

[1900hurricane]

This appears it will develop, although it'll be moving north pretty quickly early in its life.

[euro6208]

TPPN14 PGTW 150924

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (S OF GUAM)

B. 15/0830Z

C. 11.68N

D. 144.62E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 148.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY
140 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 142324Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
FLARING CONVECTION NEAR A BROAD, BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED REGION OF CONVECTION
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), AND IN WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27-29 CELSIUS) THROUGH THE MARIANAS REGION THAT ARE
CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH IS AIDING OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A COMPLICATED PICTURE, AS 99W INTERACTS
WITH ANOTHER ILL-DEFINED DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST. THE NEAR TERM
TRACK IS GENERALLY WESTWARD, THEN NORTHWARD THEREAFTER AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO INTERACT. DIFFERENT MODELS DEPICT THE TWO
DISTURBANCES EITHER MERGING, WHICH IS MORE FAVORED, OR DEVELOPING
INDEPENDENTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 150957
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 15/0830Z

C. 10.9N

D. 143.7E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. IN
THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY, NOT ABLE TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED LLCC
EXISTS. POSITION BASED ON CSC. DT OF 1.5 IS BASED ON GT 0.2 W BANDING. MET
AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

22W TWENTYTWO 180815 1200 12.6N 144.5E WPAC 25 1003

Upgraded to 22W...

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM
WEST OF ANDERSEN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A MOSTLY EXPOSED LLCC JUST WEST OF GUAM.
THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES TO ASSIST WITH THE
OVERNIGHT TRACKING OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, HIGH QUALITY RADAR
IMAGERY IS GIVING US AN EXCELLENT LOCATION OF THE LLCC, PROVIDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN INITIAL POSITION AT 1800Z. BASED ON THE RADAR AND
INFRARED IMAGERY, DEEP CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PERIPHERY IN AN ELONGATED BAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM BOTH RJTD AND PGTW, AN AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T2.1 (31 KNOTS) AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ANDERSEN
AB OF 20-25 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS. TD 22W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A GENERALLY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 22W IS FORECAST JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, FORWARD SPEED WILL DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM
ENTERS INTO A WEAK STEERING PATTERN, IN AN UPPER LEVEL COL REGION.
AFTER TAU 48, TD 22W WILL TURN ONTO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE
STEERING PATTERN SWITCHES TO A BROAD WEST-EAST ORIENTED DEEP-LAYER
STR TO THE NORTHEAST. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AROUND TAU 12 AND CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36, AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TRANSITING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS AT
TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM SSTS, HIGH
OHC, STRONG OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 48, WITH
SOME CROSS-TRACK ERROR OF ABOUT 200NM AT TAU 48 BETWEEN HWRF ON THE
RIGHT AND ECMWF ON THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS PLACED ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ENVELOPE, HEDGED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THE OVERALL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 22W IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTED
STR. AFTER TAU 72, TD 22W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN, AS UPPER-
LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE PINCHES OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW ALOFT.
WHILE VWS AND SSTS WILL REMAIN RELATIVE FAVORABLE, THE CONSTRICTION
OF THE OUTFLOW WILL OFFSET THESE POSITIVE FACTORS AND CONTRIBUTE TO
THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY POOR
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH A BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL
TRACKERS. THE GFS, GALWEM, EGRR, ECMWF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS INDICATE
THE TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST, IN LINE WITH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE, HWRF, COAMPS-TC REPRESENT THE ALTERNATE
SCENARIO, TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME, AS MENTIONED,
THE JTWC TRACK LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK, WHICH FAVORS THE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS AND HIGH
UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Visioen]

This is just a GFS run 120-240 hours out (so can still change a lot) and I really hope it doesn't come true..

[euro6208]

What an incredible season for Japan.

WDPN35 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC, AND RADAR FIX DATA FROM
GUAM. A 160003Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE LOCATION
OF THE LLCC AND THE WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE CURRENTLY EXHIBITED BY
THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND
PRESENTS AN OVERALL RAGGED APPEARANCE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
RISEN TO 35 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM BOTH RJTD AND PGTW, AN AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T2.3 (33 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 41 KNOTS. TS
22W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK
BEYOND TAU 72 HAS SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE LEFT (SOUTH) FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE IWO TO AREA, IT WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW, AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL COL AREA. A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH OF TS 22W DURING THIS TIME, BUT IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED
TO PULL TS 22W NORTHWARD. A STRONG, EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND AFTER TAU 48, WILL TURN TS 22W ONTO A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72, UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS,
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS. A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 72 AS DUAL-CHANNEL
OUTFLOW SETS UP AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AFOREMENTIONED COL
AREA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 HAS IMPROVED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH ONLY A 120 NM SPREAD BETWEEN
OUTLIERS. THEREAFTER THE MODELS START TO SPREAD AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY BIFURCATED BETWEEN A WEST TRACK TOWARDS OKINAWA
REPRESENTED BY NAVGEM, AND A TURN TO THE NORTH REPRESENTED BY HWRF.
BY TAU 72, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TO 250 NM BETWEEN THESE OUTLIERS.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, THERE IS
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW STR THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE MAIN JAPANESE ISLANDS. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO REACH
ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS AT TAU 96 AND MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW VWS AND WARM SSTS WILL
BE OFFSET BY A REDUCTION IN UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL
MASS CONVERGENCE ON TOP OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
INCREASINGLY POOR AGREEMENT BEYOND TAU 72 AS ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
INDICATE A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY AROUND TAU 96, AHEAD OF ANOTHER
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE NAVGEM AND GALWEM MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY AND TAKE THE SYSTEM TOWARDS OKINAWA BY TAU 120,
AND THE REMINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS LIE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS TRACK IN LIGHT OF THE LARGER NUMBER OF TRACKERS TRENDING
THIS DIRECTION AND ANALYSIS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DUE TO THE
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

This is just a GFS run 120-240 hours out (so can still change a lot) and I really hope it doesn't come true..

Pretty similar with the ECMWF...

[doomhaMwx]

ECMWF ensemble tracks

[1900hurricane]

Looking pretty good. It might be developing a little faster than guidance has indicated at this point. A splitting poleward outflow channel looks very impressive.