WPAC: CIMARON - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

Deep convection still limited south of the center.

[euro6208]

Much weaker on approach towards the Northern Marianas and overall...

WDPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM EAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY OF T3.0 (45
KTS). WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29-30 C) AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW HAVE ENABLED 23W TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DESPITE STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH VWS CONTINUES TO BE OVERCOME BY GOOD OUTFLOW.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STORM TRACK, WITH 80
NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS THE STR CONTINUES
TO BE THE PREDOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BEGIN TURNING MORE
NORTHWARD AS THE CYCLONE RECURVES AROUND THE STR AXIS. THE SPREAD IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE INCREASES TO 500 NM BY TAU 120 DUE TO DIFFERENCES
IN TRACK SPEED AND DIRECTION AS THE CYCLONE RECURVES. THE MAXIMUM
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE 75 KTS AT TAU 96, BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL OVER HONSHU. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED
ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS BUT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE HWRF AND
COAMPS-NAVGEM INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Very deep convection...

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1031039049572777984

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 190901
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (23W) Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP232018
701 PM ChST Sun Aug 19 2018

...TROPICAL STORM CIMARON MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan.
Destructive winds of 74 mph or more are expected Monday afternoon
or evening.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian.
Damaging winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the next 24 to
36 hours.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location...15.9N 150.6E

About 330 miles east of Saipan
About 335 miles east-southeast of Alamagan
About 340 miles east of Tinian
About 350 miles east-southeast of Pagan
About 380 miles east-southeast of Agrihan
About 425 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...50 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...295 degrees at 14 mph

Discussion and outlook
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Cimaron
was located near Latitude 15.9 degrees North and Longitude 150.6
degrees East. Tropical Storm Cimaron is moving toward the west-
northwest at 14 mph. It is expected to make a slight turn toward
the northwest with little change in forward speed over the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50 mph. Tropical Storm
Cimaron is forecast to intensify through Monday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
145 miles on the eastern semicircle and up to 100 miles on the
western semicircle.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM followed by the next scheduled advisory at 200
AM early Monday morning.

$$

Simpson

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 191042
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
842 PM CHST SUN AUG 19 2018

...TROPICAL STORM CIMARON NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...


NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE ON SAIPAN AND TINIAN.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

EVERYONE IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLAN
AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR
AREA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT
BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST ...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CIMARON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE
150.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 330 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN...340
MILES EAST OF TINIAN...335 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN...380
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN AND 425 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CIMARON WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH MONDAY.
WHILE IT HAS MOVED WESTWARD...CIMARON IS NOW MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST...AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR TYPHOON DISASTER PLAN SPECIFIC TO
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION
FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS SHOULD MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO
PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. MAKE PREPARATIONS
ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR
WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN
FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 5 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-192000-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.A.4023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
842 PM CHST SUN AUG 19 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ADJACENT WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN
AND ADJACENT WATERS. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ON MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CIMARON WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH MONDAY.
CIMARON IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST- NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE ON SAIPAN AND TINIAN SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. SMALL BOATS ON ALL ISLANDS SHOULD
BE WELL SECURED. AVOID INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY BOAT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH MONDAY MORNING SHIFTING TO
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT.


...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SURF COULD EASILY BUILD UP TO 10 OR 12 FEET AS CIMARON
PASSES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS
LIKELY ALONG WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.


.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CIMARON WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH MONDAY.
CIMARON IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST- NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY.


.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE ON AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. SMALL BOATS ON ALL
ISLANDS SHOULD BE WELL SECURED. AVOID INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY BOAT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY
TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH MONDAY MORNING
TO MONDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING MONDAY
NIGHT. NEAR-TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.


...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SURF COULD EASILY BUILD UP TO 15 OR 20 FEET AS CIMARON
PASSES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. INUNDATION OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS LIKELY
ALONG WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ON ALL
THREE ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


$$

[euro6208]

Up to 55 knots...

23W CIMARON 180819 1200 16.0N 150.5E WPAC 55 989

[mrbagyo]

Cimaron has some extremely cold cloud tops.

[mrbagyo]

Developing mv eye

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON INFLOW WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY,
AND IN A 191813Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SSMIS IMAGE HIGHLIGHTS THE IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS),
BASED ON IMPROVING OUTFLOW, AND AGREES WITH A 191538Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 62 KTS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO 15-20
KTS HAVE ENABLED INTENSIFICATION. A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST IS
ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FUELING CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED AS VWS HAS EASED OVER THE SYSTEM AND AS THE TUTT CELL TO
THE EAST CONTINUES TO ENHANCE OUTFLOW, WITH 23W REACHING A PEAK OF
80 KTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, 23W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
AFTER TAU 48, AS 23W MOVES AWAY FROM THE TUTT CELL AND ITS OUTFLOW
IS REDUCED. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STORM
TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN NORTHWARD
AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120 AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS
AND BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK CONTINUES TO GROW AS THE DEGREE OF TURNING AND THE ALONG-
TRACK SPEED VARIES CONSIDERABLY AMONG THE MODELS, ALTHOUGH THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS. 23W WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER HONSHU INTO
COOLER WATER IN THE SEA OF JAPAN AND INTERACTS WITH A PASSING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF TY 22W. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PLACED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

***TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN**

TYPHOON WARNING remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan Islands.

[mrbagyo]

BT now at 65 knots

23W CIMARON 180820 0000 17.0N 148.9E WPAC 65 981

[cycloneye]

JMA still is at STS.

STS 1820 (Cimaron)
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 20 August 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 20 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°00' (17.0°)
E149°20' (149.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 500 km (270 NM)
NW 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 20 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°00' (18.0°)
E147°25' (147.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 21 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°25' (19.4°)
E145°40' (145.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 22 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°25' (23.4°)
E140°50' (140.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 23 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°10' (29.2°)
E135°25' (135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/JN4lLDM



https://imgur.com/of8uN7e

CIMARRON still affected by shear.

[NotoSans]

Does not look like a 65-knot system to me right now. Looks like a clear-cut T3.5 to me.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON INFLOW WRAPPING INTO A SMALL FLARE OF CENTRAL
CONVECTION IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 192120Z GMI 91GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE LLCC,
AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS, IN LINE WITH THE KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KTS) AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
PGTW ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS). 22W TO THE NORTHWEST HAS LARGELY
MOVED TOO FAR WEST TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT 23W WITH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW,
LEADING TO REDUCED (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH ALONG WITH
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, AND OUTFLOW TOWARDS A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST, HAS ALLOWED
23W TO INTENSIFY. HOWEVER, IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THE
CENTER IS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED AT TIMES DUE TO THE MODERATE VWS.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LOWER VWS AND ENHANCED OUTFLOW, WITH 23W
REACHING A PEAK OF 85 KTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, 23W WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, AS 23W MOVES AWAY FROM THE TUTT CELL AND ITS
OUTFLOW IS REDUCED. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
STORM TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN NORTHWARD
AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120 AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS
AND BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK CONTINUES TO GROW AS THE DEGREE OF TURNING AND THE ALONG-
TRACK SPEED VARIES CONSIDERABLY AMONG THE MODELS, WITH 435 NM OF
SPREAD AT TAU 96. TY 23W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER
HONSHU INTO COOLER WATER IN THE SEA OF JAPAN AND INTERACTS WITH A
PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF TY 22W. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. THE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) MODELS NOTABLY INCREASED
IN FORECAST INTENSITY THIS RUN, REACHING A PEAK OF 90-100 KTS BY TAU
48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 200309
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CIMARON Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP232018
109 PM ChST Mon Aug 20 2018

...TROPICAL STORM CIMARON IS NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian.
Damaging winds of 39 to 73 mph are expected within the next 6 to
12 hours.

A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and
Alamagan. Destructive winds of 74 mph or more are expected this
afternoon or evening.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location...17.3N 148.5E

About 175 miles east of Alamagan
About 185 miles east-southeast of Pagan
About 210 miles east-southeast of Agrihan
About 235 miles northeast of Saipan
About 250 miles northeast of Tinian
About 310 miles northeast of Rota
About 365 miles northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...75 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...300 degrees at 7 mph

Discussion and outlook
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Typhoon Cimaron was
located near Latitude 17.3 degrees North and Longitude
148.5 degrees East. Typhoon Cimaron is moving toward the west-
northwest at 7 mph. It is expected to make a slight turn toward
the northwest with an increase in forward speed over the next
24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 75 mph. Typhoon Cimaron
is forecast to intensify through Tuesday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 35 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
220 miles to the south and up to 155 miles to the north.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 PM ChST.

$$

Ziobro

[Twisted-core]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 AUG 2018 Time : 061000 UTC
Lat : 17:36:13 N Lon : 148:03:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 988.3mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.3 3.3

Center Temp : -65.0C Cloud Region Temp : -66.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 152km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.3 degrees

[Twisted-core]

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 AUG 2018 Time : 081000 UTC
Lat : 18:05:47 N Lon : 147:26:16 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 970.1mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 2.7

Center Temp : -43.6C Cloud Region Temp : -44.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 153km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.5 degrees

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
ALAMAGAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 200525Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE WHICH SHOWS
CYCLONIC CURVATURE SURROUNDING COOLER BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS
BASED ON THE KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KTS)
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW AND 192050Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 55
KTS. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH
MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TY 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED UNTIL TAU 36 WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 80 KTS. AFTER TAU 48, OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
TY 23W MOVES AWAY FROM A TUTT CELL THAT IS CURRENTLY AIDING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STORM TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48 BUT SPREAD INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY TAU 72 WHEN TY
23W BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AT TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN NORTHWARD
UNTIL ATTAINING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AT
TAU 120. TRACK UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO GROW DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
RATE OF TURNING AND ALONG-TRACK SPEED. LAND INTERACTION AND HIGH VWS
WILL CAUSE TY 23W TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER HONSHU INTO
COOLER WATER AND INTERACTS WITH A PASSING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE AND
THE REMNANTS OF TY 22W. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE HWRF MODEL BUT IS UP TO 25 KNOTS BELOW
THE COAMPS-NAVGEM INTENSITY FORECAST AT TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AFTER ROUNDING THE STR AXIS.//
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