WPAC: CIMARON - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Does not look like a 65-knot system to me right now. Looks like a clear-cut T3.5 to me.

Looks aren't everything. See Lane. Recon found a Cat 3 despite it's looks...

[euro6208]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 08200611
SATCON: MSLP = 972 hPa MSW = 72 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 71.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 74 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 180 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 970 hPa 75 knots Scene: CDO Date: AUG200840
CIMSS AMSU: 975 hPa 63 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 08200611
ATMS: 975.8 hPa 73.0 knots Date: 08200337
SSMIS: 975.8 hPa 73.0 knots Date: 08200337
CIRA ATMS: hPa knots Date:

[1900hurricane]

Cimaron would probably be a much stronger storm if it were outside of the shear from Soulik's blasting outflow.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/rHWuawR
little ball looks like a mid-level eye

[euro6208]

Agreed. Cimaron should have been stronger if not for Soulik. Just look at that outflow...

[euro6208]

Very important for those in the Northern islands...

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 201144
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
944 PM CHST MON AUG 20 2018

...TYPHOON CIMARON MOVING NORTHWEST ...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS ON
SAIPAN...TINIAN...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

ALL PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE PREPARATIONS
UNDERWAY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN. PLEASE
LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR
YOUR AREA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CIMARON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2N...LONGITUDE 147.3E. THIS WAS ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN...235 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND
370 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS NORTHWEST.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 75 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON CIMARON WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TUESDAY. CIMARON IS
MOVING NORTHWEST...AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK THROUGH
TUESDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN
AND TINIAN.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR THOSE IN SAIPAN AND TINIAN...NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR DISASTER PLAN FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS
SPECIFIC TO YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. SMALL BOATS ON ALL ISLANDS
SHOULD BE WELL SECURED. AVOID INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY BOAT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR THOSE IN AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...PREPARATIONS FOR THE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE NEAR COMPLETION. SMALL BOATS
ON ALL ISLANDS SHOULD BE WELL SECURED. AVOID INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY
BOAT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCY.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN
FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO
THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 5 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-202100-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.W.4023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
944 PM CHST MON AUG 20 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.

KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. STRONGLY
CONSIDER EVACUATING IF ORDERED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE BEST
STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
AND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SURF COULD HAS ALREADY BUILT TO 10 FEET AND WILL RISE
FURTHER TO 10 OR 12 FEET AS CIMARON PASSES TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS LIKELY ALONG WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

...INLAND FLOODING...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. SEE
LATEST FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING RAINS
OCCUR.

&&

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


PEOPLE ON AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. SMALL BOATS ON ALL
ISLANDS SHOULD BE WELL SECURED. AVOID INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY BOAT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASING TONIGHT. NEAR- TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SURF COULD EASILY BUILD UP TO 15 OR 20 FEET AS CIMARON
PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY. INUNDATION OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS LIKELY ALONG
WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ON ALL
THREE ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


$$

NIERENBERG

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 202124
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CIMARON (23W) Advisory Number 13
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP232018
724 AM ChST Tue Aug 21 2018

...TYPHOON CIMARON Moving northwest...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
The tropical storm warning for Tinian and Saipan is canceled.
Damaging winds are no longer expected.

A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and
Alamagan. Destructive winds of 74 mph or more are expected or
are occurring.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location...19.9N 145.6E

About 75 miles north of Agrihan
About 125 miles north of Pagan
About 155 miles north of Alamagan
About 240 miles north of Anatahan
About 330 miles north of Saipan
About 435 miles southeast of Iwo To Island
About 450 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...75 mph
Present movement...northwest...310 degrees at 16 mph

Discussion and outlook
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Typhoon Cimaron was located
near Latitude 19.9 degrees North and Longitude 145.6 degrees East.
Typhoon Cimaron is moving toward the northwest at 16 mph. It is
expected to maintain this general course and speed over the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 75 mph. Typhoon Cimaron is
forecast to intensify through Wednesday night.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 80 miles
east and up to 60 miles west. Tropical storm force winds extend
outward from the center up to 260 miles to the east and up to 200
miles to the west.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 AM this morning followed by the next scheduled
advisory at 200 PM.

$$

Kleeschulte

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 202239
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON CIMARON (23W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
839 AM CHST TUE AUG 21 2018

...TYPHOON CIMARON MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN CNMI...

.NEW INFORMATION...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS ON SAIPAN...TINIAN...
AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN. PLEASE
LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR
YOUR AREA.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CIMARON (23W) WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9N...LONGITUDE 145.6E. THIS WAS ABOUT 75 MILES NORTH
OF AGRIHAN...ABOUT 330 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN AND ABOUT 450 MILES
NORTH OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 75 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON CIMARON WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CIMARON IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH...AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN CNMI.
CIMARON IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN.
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE IN SAIPAN AND TINIAN...BE SMART AND USE CAUTION. CONTINUE
TO HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AS THEY CONDUCT RESCUE AND
RECOVERY EFFORTS. WAIT FOR THE ALL-CLEAR SIGNAL BEFORE RE-ENTERING
EVACUATION ZONES OR ANY AREA THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OR
FLOODING.

PAY ATTENTION FOR POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES AND STAY AWAY FROM
DOWNED POWER LINES. LISTEN FOR ANY BOIL WATER ALERTS.

MARINERS SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST BEFORE
MAKING ANY DEFINITE PLANS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-202345-
/O.CAN.PGUM.TR.W.4023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
839 AM CHST TUE AUG 21 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU OR SOMEONE ELSE NEEDS EMERGENCY HELP, CALL 9 1 1.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON STORM IMPACTS.

STAY OUT OF FLOODED AREAS AS THE WATER MAY BE CONTAMINATED OR THE
ROAD MIGHT HAVE BEEN WASHED AWAY. TEST DRINKING WATER BEFORE USING,
PARTICULARLY FROM WELLS. STAY AWAY FROM DOWNED POWER LINES TOO.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT OR SAFE HARBOR UNTIL WINDS AND
SEAS SUBSIDE. FOR ANY SMALL CRAFT WHO ARE IN DISTRESS, OR IF YOU SEE
SOMEONE ELSE IN DISTRESS...RADIO YOUR SITUATION ACCORDING TO
MARITIME PROTOCOL. IF APPROPRIATE...DEPLOY YOUR EMERGENCY DISTRESS
BEACON.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY STILL
OCCUR. MONSOON WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEE
LATEST FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR.

&&

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ON AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN SHOULD REMAIN IN SHELTER UNTIL
WINDS AND RAIN SUBSIDE. SMALL BOATS ON ALL ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN
WELL SECURED. AVOID INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY BOAT THROUGH TONIGHT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE OCCURRING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEAR-TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY AS
CIMARON MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN CNMI.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 12 OR 15 FEET IS LIKELY TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS
CIMARON CONTINUES NORTHWEST. INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS LIKELY
ALONG WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ON ALL THREE ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 51 NM NORTHEAST
OF AGRIHAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
201740Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (ABOUT 29 CELSIUS). THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR UNTIL ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS AT
ABOUT TAU 72. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND
SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL 23W REACHES A PEAK INTENSITY OF
85 KTS AROUND TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS TY 23W MOVES AWAY FROM A TUTT CELL THAT IS
CURRENTLY AIDING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 BUT SPREAD INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY AS TY 23W ROUNDS THE STR AXIS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TO
EASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. LAND INTERACTION AND HIGH VWS WILL
CAUSE TY 23W TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER WATER AND
INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE GALWEM MODEL IS THE
PRIMARY OUTLIER WITH AN ERRONEOUS TRACK INTO AN OCCLUDED LOW OVER
MANCHURIA. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN HIGHLY ERRATIC AND NOW SHOWS A
NORTHWARD TRACK NEAR VLADIVOSTOK AS OPPOSED TO A RECURVE TRACK IN
THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED, THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 202120

A. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON)

B. 20/2050Z

C. 19.82N

D. 145.44E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. TIGHTLY CURVED
CNVCTN WRAPS 1.10 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
20/1524Z 19.00N 146.67E AMS2
20/1609Z 18.88N 146.65E ATMS
20/1740Z 19.45N 146.28E SSMI
20/1847Z 19.53N 145.98E MMHS
20/2001Z 19.60N 145.68E SSMS


LOWE

TXPQ26 KNES 202125
TCSWNP

A. 23W (CIMARON)

B. 20/2030Z

C. 19.6N

D. 145.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 13/10 BANDING INFERRED FROM THE 2001Z SSMIS IMAGE YIELDS A DT OF
4.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/1740Z 19.3N 146.3E SSMI
20/2001Z 19.6N 145.7E SSMIS


...TURK

[euro6208]

Looking very good this morning.

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

Upgraded by JMA to Typhoon status.



TY 1820 (Cimaron)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 21 August 2018
<Analysis at 06 UTC, 21 August>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N21°10' (21.2°)
E144°05' (144.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 560 km (300 NM)
W 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 21 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°00' (23.0°)
E141°25' (141.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 22 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°25' (25.4°)
E138°50' (138.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 23 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°30' (31.5°)
E133°55' (133.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 24 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N40°30' (40.5°)
E134°55' (134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 45 km/h (23 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 560 km (300 NM)

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/mkfcIui

nice look for ri with this one.

[mrbagyo]

23W CIMARON 180821 0600 21.2N 144.0E WPAC 75 971


SATCON

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 08210601
SATCON: MSLP = 952 hPa MSW = 97 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 94.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 99 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 200 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0.4 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 961 hPa 85 knots Scene: CDO Date: AUG210850
CIMSS AMSU: 945 hPa 102 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 08210601
ATMS: 945.1 hPa 104.4 knots Date: 08210319
SSMIS: 945.1 hPa 104.4 knots Date: 08210319
CIRA ATMS: 971 hPa 70 knots Date: 08191538

[mrbagyo]

Up to 80 knots
23W CIMARON 180821 1200 22.0N 142.8E WPAC 80 967

[BYG Jacob]

Looks much healthier today

[NotoSans]

Up to 75 knots from JMA and 90 knots from JTWC, consistent with a T5.0/5.0 Dvorak. Cold wakes caused by Typhoon Soulik may limit intensification though.

[mrbagyo]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 08211638
SATCON: MSLP = 941 hPa MSW = 114 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 111.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 107 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 210 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 1.5 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 939 hPa 110 knots Scene: CDO Date: AUG211900
CIMSS AMSU: 941 hPa 104 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 08210914
ATMS: 940.0 hPa 110.2 knots Date: 08211638
SSMIS: 942.8 hPa 109.2 knots Date: 08211638
CIRA ATMS: 945 hPa 108 knots Date: 08211639

All SatCon members are now above 100 knots

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

Morning visible image