WPAC: CIMARON - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: 23W - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 17, 2018 11:25 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525
NM EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT BUT STRUGGLING CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED
AWAY FROM A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CENTER POSITION
IS FIXED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
LOOP AND A 172321Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS), IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
KNES ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS), AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE RJTD
ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW FROM TY 22W TO THE NORTHWEST
IMPINGING ON CONVECTION, LEADING TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
NOW 25-30 KTS, WHICH IS DISRUPTING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TD 23W
FEATURES ONLY MARGINAL EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AT THIS TIME.
SSTS ARE VERY WARM (28-30 CELSIUS), SUPPORTING THE FLARING
CONVECTION. TD 23W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR RIDGE CURRENTLY TO ITS NORTH, PASSING WELL
NORTH OF THE MARIANAS ISLANDS BY TAU 72. OUTFLOW FROM TY 22W TO ITS
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING NORTHERLY VWS INTO THE AREA AND
WILL SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF TD 23W. DUE TO THE SUSTAINED
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WIND RADII ARE FORECAST TO BE
EXPANSIVE AND SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC. THE HWRF MODEL TRACK REMAINS THE
SOUTHERN OUTLIER, ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
OTHERWISE, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STORM MOTION, WITH 170 NM
OF SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED CLOSED TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, AND
THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY ALSO CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 23W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHWEST. BY TAU 96, A LONGWAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH
NEAR JAPAN, ERODING THE STR. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES IN LATER TAUS,
DEPENDING ON THEIR DEPICTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH AND HOW
MUCH IT ERODES THE STEERING RIDGE, WITH 400 NM OF SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST SPREAD AT TAU 120. MODELS ALSO DIFFER IN HOW THEY DEPICT
THE ORIENTATION OF TD 23W WITH RESPECT TO TY 22W AT LATER TAUS, WITH
NAVGEM AND ECMWF MAINTAINING A STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
FOR TY 22W, THEN KEEPING TD 23W MORE EASTWARD, WHILE GFS PULLS TD
23W BEHIND THE TRACK OF TY 22W. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS DO SHOW
NORTHWEST MOTION AND RELATIVELY CONSISTENT STORM MOTION. THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS HAS DROPPED FROM THE LAST MODEL RUN, WITH TD 23W
NOW REACHING 95 KTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INTENSIFICATION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE
RELATIVE POSITION OF TY 22W, AND IF TD 23W CAN TAP INTO THE JET AND
IMPROVE ITS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AT THAT TIME. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE,
AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 23W - Tropical Depression

#22 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 17, 2018 11:27 pm

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 180338
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP232018
138 PM ChST Sat Aug 18 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A typhoon watch is now in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A typhoon watch is now in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan.

A typhoon watch means that damaging winds of 74 mph or more are
possible within 36 to 48 hours.

People in the Mariana Islands should monitor the progress of
Tropical Depression 23W.


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location...13.9N 154.3E

About 580 miles east of Saipan
About 615 miles east-southeast of Alamagan
About 635 miles east-southeast of Pagan
About 660 miles east-southeast of Agrihan
About 640 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...290 degrees at 17 mph

Discussion and outlook
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 23W
will be located near Latitude 13.9 degrees North and Longitude
154.3 degrees East. Tropical Depression 23W is moving toward the
west-northwest at 17 mph. It is expected to make a slight turn
toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed over the
next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 35 mph. Tropical
Depression 23W is forecast to intensify through tonight possibly
becoming a tropical storm Sunday morning and a typhoon Monday
morning.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 PM ChST this afternoon followed by the next
scheduled advisory at 800 PM ChST.

$$

Ziobro
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Re: WPAC: 23W - Tropical Depression

#23 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:11 am

23W TWENTYTHRE 180818 0600 14.3N 154.1E WPAC 35 1004

Upgraded to the 19Th TS of the season.
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Re: WPAC: 23W - Tropical Depression

#24 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:56 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM
NORTH OF OROLUK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE USING
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION THAT IS PARTIALLY OBSCURING, BUT ROTATING AROUND, THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 35 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS), BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE KNES AND RJTD
DVORAK INTENSITIES OF T2.0 (30 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, NO
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (29-30 C) SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION. TS 23W IS TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72. OUTFLOW FROM
TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO BRING NORTHWESTERLY VWS AND HAMPER
INTENSIFICATION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STORM MOTION, WITH
170 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE MESOSCALE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED CLOSED TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
C. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD BY TAU
120 AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH 275 NM IN SPREAD BY TAU 120. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB
AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, AS DEPICTED BY THE MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE, TO A PEAK OF 95 KTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 23W - Tropical Depression

#25 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2018 5:08 am

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
GUZ001>004-190800-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
125 PM ChST Sat Aug 18 2018

...SHOWERY WEATHER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR THE MARIANAS
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...|

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ITS ASSOCIATED MONSOON TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE FEATURES WILL GENERATE SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
MARIANAS AT THAT TIME.

THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND
FLOOD WATCHES AND ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN NECESSARY. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING
AREAS...AND IN THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.

NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO CLEAR DRAINAGE AREAS AND UN-BLOCK CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS IN YOUR AREA TO MINIMIZE THE CHANCE OF FLOODING. RESIDENTS
LIVING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS NEED TO REVIEW PLANS FOR PROTECTING
PROPERTIES.

THIS PRODUCT WILL NOT BE UPDATED AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE
ISSUED AS REQUIRED.

$$

ZIOBRO
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Re: WPAC: 23W - Tropical Depression

#26 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 18, 2018 7:01 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: 23W - Tropical Depression

#27 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2018 8:14 am

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 181051
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM 23W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
851 PM CHST SAT AUG 18 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W NOW A TROPICAL STORM...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT DAMAGING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 23W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.7 EAST. THIS IS
605 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN...580 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
PAGAN...AND 565 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN. TROPICAL STORM 23W
IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM 23W SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MAY
BECOME A TYPHOON ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM 23W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT
9 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL COURSE AND SPEED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 300 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE ON AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN SHOULD PREPARE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. SMALL BOATS ON BOTH ISLANDS SHOULD BE SECURED.
AVOID INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY BOAT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH MONDAY MORNING
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 MPH.
SOUTH WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TAKES 23W TO THE NORTH OF AGRIHAN BUT A SHIFT OF THE TRACK SOUTHWARD
COULD BRING TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE OVER ANY OF THESE
ISLANDS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 11 AND 13 FEET BY MONDAY AND 12
TO 15 FEET OR HIGHER BY TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF TD 23W.
INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS LIKELY ALONG WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ON ALL
THREE ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$

ZIOBRO
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Re: WPAC: 23W - Tropical Depression

#28 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Aug 18, 2018 8:58 am

TS 1820 (Cimaron)
Issued at 13:30 UTC, 18 August 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 18 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°35' (13.6°)
E154°25' (154.4°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 19 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°50' (15.8°)
E151°05' (151.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 20 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°40' (18.7°)
E146°30' (146.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 21 August>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°55' (21.9°)
E142°40' (142.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)
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Re: WPAC: CIMARON - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:18 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SHOWS INFLOW WRAPPING INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION COVERING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 181633Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND DEPICTS COALESCING DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A STILL-BROAD LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY UNDER THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) BUT ABOVE THE KNES AND RJTD
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND (25 KTS), RESPECTIVELY. A 181109Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS A SWATH OF 30-34 KT WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
AREA OF 35-39 KT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTH, AND 25-29 KT WINDS WRAPPED
AROUND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM THAT WAS CAPTURED IN THE
PASS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND IMPROVED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAVE ENABLED 23W TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DESPITE HIGH NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-30 KNOTS). TS 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. OUTFLOW FROM TY 22W WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT TS 23W BY PROVIDING A CONSISTENTLY HIGH VWS
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GOOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STORM TRACK, WITH 75
NM OF CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED CLOSED TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TAU 72.
C. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWARD BY TAU 120 AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RECURVE.
NAVGEM, COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM), AND COAMPS-TC (GFS) DISSENT, AND
CONTINUE MOVING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD, WITH NO RECURVE EVIDENT.
NAVGEM DOES NOT PREDICT THE TROUGH BEING AS DEEP OR CAUSING THE STR
TO RECEDE AS MUCH AS IS PORTRAYED IN THE OTHER MODELS. THE SPREAD IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE INCREASES TO 330 NM BY TAU 120. MESOSCALE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE LATER TAUS, AND THUS
THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE 85 KTS AT TAU 120,
BEFORE 23W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON SHIKOKU. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: CIMARON - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:19 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 181758

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON)

B. 18/1730Z

C. 14.75N

D. 152.35E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVTN WRAPS LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING
DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.


DARLOW
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Re: WPAC: CIMARON - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:24 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: CIMARON - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 18, 2018 7:38 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: CIMARON - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 18, 2018 7:40 pm

18/2030 UTC 14.9N 153.0E T3.0/3.0 CIMARON -- West Pacific
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Re: WPAC: CIMARON - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 18, 2018 8:06 pm

That monsoon tail intensifying and about to get parked over the Guam and the Marianas. Looking like another wonderful days ahead for heavy rains.
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Twisted-core
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Re: WPAC: CIMARON - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby Twisted-core » Sat Aug 18, 2018 8:18 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/AA0xnsa

llcc looks exposed some shear about atm
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: CIMARON - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 18, 2018 8:47 pm

Bombarded by strong northerly shear.

Image
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Re: WPAC: CIMARON - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby NotoSans » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:21 pm

JMA up to 40 knots, consistent with ASCAT data.
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Re: WPAC: CIMARON - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:37 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: CIMARON - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:52 am

WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON A 182302Z ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWS 40 KT WINDS TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAVE ENABLED 23W TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY,
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS NOW BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE LLCC DUE TO
THE STRONG VWS. TS 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. VWS FROM THE OUTFLOW FROM TY
22W, LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST, IS CURRENTLY HIGH AND IMPEDING
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION FOR TS 23W, BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS
TY 22W MOVES FURTHER TO THE WEST. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GOOD, AND TS 23W WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO A TUTT CELL TO ITS
EAST, INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TREND. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
STORM TRACK, WITH 125 NM OF CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSED TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72.
C. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWARD BY TAU 120 AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AND ALLOWS THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RECURVE. NAVGEM,
COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM), AND COAMPS-TC (GFS) DEPICT A SLOWER TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST, BUT NO RECURVE. NAVGEM DOES NOT PREDICT THE TROUGH
BEING AS DEEP OR CAUSING THE STR TO RECEDE AS MUCH AS IS PORTRAYED
IN THE OTHER MODELS. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE INCREASES TO
580 NM BY TAU 120 DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND DEGREE
OF RECURVATURE BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS. THE STORM MOTION WILL
ACCELERATE AT LATER TAUS, AND 23W IS NOW FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
AFTER TAU 96. PASSAGE OVER HONSHU WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH
IT MAY TAP INTO THE PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR ENHANCED OUTFLOW. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE 75 KTS AT TAU 96, JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT LATER
TAUS, IN LINE WITH THE COAMPS-TC MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: CIMARON - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:02 am

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN
AND ADJACENT WATERS.


A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN.


A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT
BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.
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