WPAC: TRAMI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.09.2018



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92W ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 144.4E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 20.09.2018 13.2N 144.4E WEAK

00UTC 21.09.2018 13.9N 142.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.09.2018 14.9N 140.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.09.2018 15.1N 138.7E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.09.2018 15.7N 136.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.09.2018 16.3N 134.1E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.09.2018 17.5N 132.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.09.2018 18.7N 130.4E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.09.2018 19.7N 129.0E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.09.2018 20.0N 128.9E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 25.09.2018 20.6N 128.5E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 26.09.2018 20.3N 128.9E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 26.09.2018 20.7N 129.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

[Highteeld]

[Highteeld]

Could be the 6th category 5 of the year worldwide. Tropics are bangin' in 2018

[dexterlabio]

This time around, I'm more convinced that this potential typhoon won't be heading west towards Philippines and South China Sea, unlike Mangkhut. Trough in higher latitudes is pretty strong at this point, compared to the setup last week where the strong subtropical ridge was dominating Northeast Asia.

Unfortunately, it might still end up affecting the Japanese population, which is the last thing that they need after Jebi, the strongest cyclone to affect the country in decades.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Flash Flood Warning
GUC100-210645-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FF.W.0011.180921T0050Z-180921T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1047 AM ChST Fri Sep 21 2018

The National Weather Service in Tiyan Guam has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Rota
* Until 445 PM ChST.

* At 1047 AM ChST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the
warned area. Two to three inches of rain have already fallen. Flash
flooding is occurring or will begin shortly.

Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 are possible in the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are low water crossings which are potentially
dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find
an alternate route.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 1416 14516 1420 14524 1419 14528 1416 14528
1415 14524 1411 14521 1411 14517 1414 14515
1412 14511

$$

Kleeschulte

[euro6208]

Peak upwards to 140 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
75 NM NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) WHICH DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND BANDING FROM ALL
QUADRANTS, PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST, WRAPPING IN TO THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). LOW (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) MAKE FOR A PRIME
ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. TD 28W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN OTHERWISE EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 28W IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD A WESTWARD
TRACK AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE STR. AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN
THE STR AND, BY TAU 72, TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A POLEWARD TURN
AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. FOR THIS PERIOD, THE FORECAST INTENSITY
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON 140 NM OF
SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS AT TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE STR
AXIS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INCREASES AS DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MEMBERS RESOLVE THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE STR AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSLATE INTO
DIFFERENCES IN DIRECTION OF MOTION AND ALONG TRACK SPEED. THE
INTENSITY IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, DESPITE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, BECAUSE THE ORIENTATION OF THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AID POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEFORE
INCREASING VWS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. BY TAU 120, SPREAD IN THE
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE LARGE, THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

140-kt forecast at first advisory??? If that holds, Trami would be the third typhoon to be a category 5 in a row. Another >30 ACE storm in the making.

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 210605

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTY EIGHT)

B. 21/0530Z

C. 15.10N

D. 143.38E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 2.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RICHARDSON

[euro6208]

Upgraded to a TS.

WDPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121
NM NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TS 28W CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE WITH EXCELLENT
LOW LEVEL BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 210600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND AN ADT
ESTIMATE OF T2.4 (34 KNOTS). THIS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND A 210337Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 28W IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) ALONG WITH
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 28W
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY
STEERING FEATURE THROUGH TAU 72. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL,
OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALL CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN
CAPTURED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT, TS 28W WILL QUICKLY REACH AN
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AND 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MODEL SPREAD OF 135 NM BY
TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTH WILL ERODE AS A
RESULT OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A STR TO THE WEST WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD AT THIS TIME. THE POSITIONING OF THE STRS WILL
ALLOW FOR TS 28W TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED. BY TAU 96, STRS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEST WILL COMPETE TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
FEATURE. THE PLACEMENT OF THE STRS MAY ALLOW TS 28W TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY BEGINNING NEAR TAU 108. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
ALLOWING TS 28W TO REACH AND INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AND UP
TO 140 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
POOR AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK SPREAD OF 500 NM BY TAU 120. HWFI, CTCI,
AND COTI ARE THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS, INDICATING A FASTER TRACK SPEED
TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST T RACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE
SPREAD IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
ABOVE THE CONSENSUS BASED ON THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

The Tropical Storm Watch for Rota, Tinian and Saipan
has been canceled.

[Highteeld]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL STORM 28W
Friday 21sep18 Time: 0642 UTC
Latitude: 15.17 Longitude: 143.31
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 23 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 997 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 38 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.98101
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.06
RMW: 120 km
RMW Source is: JTWC
Environmental Pressure: 1006
Satellite: NOAA-19
ATCF data for Month: 09 Day: 21 Time (UTC): 0600

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

[euro6208]

28W TWENTYEIGH 180921 1200 15.6N 142.5E WPAC 40 1000

12Z went with 40 knots.

[Hayabusa]

Now TS Trami



TS 1824 (Trami)
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 21 September 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 21 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°20' (15.3°)
E142°40' (142.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 330 km (180 NM)
SW 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 22 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°05' (16.1°)
E140°40' (140.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 22 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°35' (16.6°)
E138°25' (138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 23 September>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°30' (17.5°)
E133°25' (133.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 24 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N18°40' (18.7°)
E130°20' (130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1043083687040958465

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (TRAMI)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBSCURATION OF THE LLCC.
A 211737Z SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDED ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO
THE INITIAL POSITION, SHOWING A SMALL CORE WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM ON ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) BASED ON AN
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 47 KNOTS. TS 28W LIES IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW
VWS, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SSTS. TS 28W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST
PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 130 KNOTS AND THE TAU 120
FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 120 KNOTS.
B. TS 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED STR. ALL
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS (VWS, SST AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW) ARE ALL
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS, SUPPORTED BY RI-SPECIFIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE INDICATING
A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT RI EVENT IN THE NEAR TERM.
BEYOND TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE, AS OUTFLOW BECOMES
SLIGHTLY LESS ROBUST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A MODEL SPREAD OF 120NM BY TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX AND
UNCERTAIN AS THE STEERING PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. BY TAU 96,
THE STEERING RIDGE BECOMES ERODED AND MOVED EASTWARD BY A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SECOND STR WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CHINA, WITH A LARGE COL AREA
BETWEEN THE STRS, RESULTING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR TS
28W. AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THIS REGION, IT WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY,
BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY BY TAU 96. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 96, ALLOWING TS 28W TO REACH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS AT TAU 96. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS
FORECAST AFTER THIS POINT, AS THE OHC IN THIS AREA IS RELATIVELY
LOW, AND UPWELLING LEADS TO A REDUCTION IN THE AVAILABLE ENERGY TO
SUPPORT THE SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY AS IT IS FORECAST TO BE QUASI-
STATIONARY IN THIS AREA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH A TRACK SPREAD OF 535NM BY TAU 120. CTCI AND JGSI ARE THE
PRIMARY OUTLIERS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST, RESPECTIVELY, WITH
THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD FAIRLY EQUALLY BETWEEN THE
OUTLIERS. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN, WITH OVER 900NM SPREAD BETWEEN THE NAVGEM SOLUTION TO THE
WEST OVER COASTAL CHINA, AND THE COAMPS-TC SOLUTION TO THE EAST OF
OKINAWA.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

2018SEP21 214000 3.5 989.9 55.0 3.5 3.6 3.8 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -75.21 -77.13 UNIFRM N/A -0.0 16.24 -140.68 FCST HIM-8 19.0

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

TS 1824 (Trami)
Issued at 00:40 UTC, 22 September 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 22 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°55' (15.9°)
E141°00' (141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 330 km (180 NM)
SW 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 23 September>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°00' (17.0°)
E136°35' (136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 24 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N18°10' (18.2°)
E132°20' (132.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 25 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N19°05' (19.1°)
E129°40' (129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 410 km (220 NM)