WPAC: 01W - Post-Tropical

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TyphoonNara
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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#101 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:31 pm

mrbagyo wrote:12 days and counting


Another long-living invest like Usagi (98C) last year which struggles to develop at first. :lol:

Not sure if it will become a cat 1 like Usagi though.
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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#102 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:34 pm

Upgraded to medium again.

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.4N 155.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 153.5E, APPROXIMATELY 170
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 142321Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT WEAK, SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#103 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:35 pm

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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#104 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:42 pm

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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#105 Postby TyphoonNara » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:26 am

The system becomes much more organised, with obvious spiral bands.

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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#106 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:06 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.0N 153.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 152.2E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTH OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
PARTIAL 150136Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION
STARTING TO WRAP INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) FROM
THE NORTH. THE LLC IS CURRENTLY UNDER A LARGE REGION OF LOW (5-15KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO BROAD
WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (30-32C)
IN THIS REGION OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT RMNTS 01W WILL REGAIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STRENGTH BETWEEN 160000Z AND 180000Z AS IT CONTINUES ON A WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#107 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:12 am

HWRF also having a hard time with this. 00Z had a strong typhoon approaching Palau/Yap. 06Z just a weak tropical storm...
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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#108 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:01 am

12Z JMA update still has it as Low Pressure and almost in the same spot as 24 hours ago:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 152E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#109 Postby TyphoonNara » Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:08 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.0N 153.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 152.2E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTH OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
PARTIAL 150136Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION
STARTING TO WRAP INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) FROM
THE NORTH. THE LLC IS CURRENTLY UNDER A LARGE REGION OF LOW (5-15KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO BROAD
WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (30-32C)
IN THIS REGION OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT RMNTS 01W WILL REGAIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STRENGTH BETWEEN 160000Z AND 180000Z AS IT CONTINUES ON A WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#110 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:15 am

EURO continues to show minor development. Nothing significant.
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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#111 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:26 am

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.6N 152.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ARC OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER 100 NM
NORTH OF A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. A 152334Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS
SHOWS LARGELY STRAIGHT-LINE SURFACE FLOW EAST OF THE 160000Z JTWC BEST
TRACK POSITION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE
WITH LOW (5-10KT) VWS AND BROAD WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS
REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30C) IN THIS REGION OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.
THERE REMAINS STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN TAU 24-48 AS TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
PHILIPPINES. THE JGSM IS THE SOLE OUTLIER, FORECASTING NO
DEVELOPMENT BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#112 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:28 am

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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#113 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:29 am

JMA's update:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 149E WEST SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#114 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:55 pm

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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#115 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:12 pm

01W ONE 190117 0000 6.4N 147.1E WPAC 20 1005

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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#116 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:50 am

JMA is forecasting the system to become a tropical depression in 24 hours for the first time.
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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#117 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:53 am

JMA's update:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 06N 144E WEST SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#118 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:55 am

Latest ASCAT scan is showing 25-30 knot winds and a brief LLCC.

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Last edited by TyphoonNara on Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#119 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:55 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.7N 149.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 144.0E, APPROXIMATELY 565
NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ON THE NORTH
PERIPHERY. A 162311Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT)
VWS AND STRONG DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
(28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED WESTWARD
TRACK AND SLOW SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#120 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:57 am

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