WPAC: 01W - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#61 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:04 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#62 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jan 07, 2019 4:23 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N
172.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR N E, APPROXIMATELY NM NORTH OF .
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED, FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 070619Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
SOME BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. 01W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HIGH
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) OFFSET BY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 01W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT, REMAINING
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#63 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:43 pm

ECMWF is back

Image

GFS and CMC are calling for a high-end TS (mid-grade STS?). Stronger than yesterday's runs

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#64 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:02 am

Strongest run from the ECMWF so far

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#65 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:35 am

Pretty similar to Tembin but further north in 6z
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#66 Postby TyphoonNara » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:45 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS TD 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.4N 171.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.9N 171.8E, APPROXIMATELY 190
NM SOUTH OF MAJURO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK, DISORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 072224Z METOP-B MHS 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO A POORLY DEFINED
LLCC. HOWEVER, A 072118Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 10-15
KT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE REMNANTS ARE CURRENTLY IN
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS) AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE OFFSET BY HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER TAU 96, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 15-20 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#67 Postby TyphoonNara » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:46 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#68 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:37 am

This would be already approaching the Marianas as a typhoon from the GFS run 5 days ago, and yet this struggling invest is still at 165E+
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#69 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:34 am

Remains MEDIUM Reasoning and discussion. :wink:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.4N 171.7E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 167.8E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH OF
KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FRAGMENTED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY. A 082237Z
PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED AND
WEAK WITH 10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND 15-20 KT
WINDS ACROSS ITS NORTHERN FLANK. THE REMNANTS ARE CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE OFFSET BY HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE
TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER TAU
96. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#70 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:01 pm

stubborn :cheesy:

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#71 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:18 pm

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.4N 171.7E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 167.8E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH OF
KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FRAGMENTED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY. A 082237Z
PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED AND
WEAK WITH 10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND 15-20 KT
WINDS ACROSS ITS NORTHERN FLANK. THE REMNANTS ARE CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE OFFSET BY HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE
TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER TAU
96. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#72 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:19 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 01W

#73 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:37 pm

Just out of curiosity, why is the 90W designation still being used? No agency has identified this as 90W for almost a week now.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#74 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:56 pm

The Model Wars begin!! *grabs popcorn*

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#75 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:02 pm

It is quite interesting that the models are getting more bullish on the system despite its recent failures.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#76 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:37 am

90W now getting its act together, with much better outflow, bursts of convection, and improved overall organization. I'm puzzled why the JMA hasn't even upgraded this to a low pressure area.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#77 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 10, 2019 3:51 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 01W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 167.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0N 164.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY
OBSCURED BY ISOLATED, FLARING CONVECTION. A 100410Z SSMI F-15 85 GHZ
AND 100226Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DIFFUSE AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLC. THE REMNANTS OF 01W ARE IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 CELSIUS), AND LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THERE IS HIGHER WIND SHEAR TO THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF 01W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#78 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:15 pm

18Z JMA

Code: Select all

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 161E WEST SLOWLY.

BT

Code: Select all

01W ONE 190110 1800 5.3N 162.0E WPAC 20 1006

Down to low chance

Code: Select all

ABPW10 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102100Z-110600ZJAN2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS TD 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.0N 164.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 250
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 101855Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY
BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BELOW A LARGE AREA OF
FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED
BY STRONG UL DIVERGENCE DUE TO GENERALLY WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW-MODERATE (10-20 KTS), WITH A LARGE
EXPANSE OF LOW SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN VERY WARM (30-32C) IN THIS PORTION OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT, WITH GFS AND JGSM PREDICTING NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT, WHILE THE UKMO, NAVGEM, AND ECMWF SHOW DEVELOPMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE MODEL RUN. HOWEVER, THE UKMO AND NAVGEM BOTH
KEEP DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE 14TH AND 15TH, WHILE THE EC HOLDS OFF
UNTIL THE 17TH. ALL GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE DISTURBANCE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED THE AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 01W

#79 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:43 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Just out of curiosity, why is the 90W designation still being used? No agency has identified this as 90W for almost a week now.

Yeah, 01W should be used in the thread title. "01W - Remnants".
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Re: WPAC: 01W - Remnants

#80 Postby TyphoonNara » Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:46 pm

Downgraded to Low

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS TD 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.0N 164.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 250
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 101855Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY
BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BELOW A LARGE AREA OF
FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED
BY STRONG UL DIVERGENCE DUE TO GENERALLY WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW-MODERATE (10-20 KTS), WITH A LARGE
EXPANSE OF LOW SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN VERY WARM (30-32C) IN THIS PORTION OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT, WITH GFS AND JGSM PREDICTING NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT, WHILE THE UKMO, NAVGEM, AND ECMWF SHOW DEVELOPMENT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE MODEL RUN. HOWEVER, THE UKMO AND NAVGEM BOTH
KEEP DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE 14TH AND 15TH, WHILE THE EC HOLDS OFF
UNTIL THE 17TH. ALL GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE DISTURBANCE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
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