WPAC: WUTIP - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 17, 2019 5:45 am

From the Guam NWS:

.Tropical systems...
Invest 92W looks somewhat better organized than 24 hours ago, but the
center is exposed, with the main mass of deep convection sheared out
northwest of the center. The center itself has drifted a bit south
since yesterday evening, and is currently near 2N 166E. The models
are still developing 92W over the next few days and moving it west
or west-northwest. The GFS is most aggressive, putting 92W about
100 miles SW of Guam next Sunday as a typhoon. The latest ECMWF also
has it passing SW of Guam on Sunday, but as a tropical storm to
within 200 miles. In the real world, 92W has moved little, is still
not favorably organized, and mid-to-upper level moisture remains
limited out west and northwest of 92W, where it will likely track
in the days ahead. Much uncertainty remains about the future of 92W,
and we will be watching closely for signs of better development over
the next few days. While February is not normally a good month for
typhoons to develop, it can happen, and remains a possibility in
this case.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#42 Postby euro6208 » Sun Feb 17, 2019 6:19 am

92W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 17, 2019:

Location: 2.2°N 166.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#43 Postby euro6208 » Sun Feb 17, 2019 6:24 am

UKMET on hyper mode...

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 5.0N 162.0E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 19.02.2019 5.5N 160.4E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.02.2019 5.4N 157.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.02.2019 5.2N 155.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.02.2019 6.3N 153.7E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.02.2019 7.3N 151.5E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.02.2019 8.3N 149.8E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.02.2019 9.4N 148.1E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.02.2019 10.1N 146.7E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.02.2019 10.8N 145.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#44 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 17, 2019 8:11 am

JTWC upgrades to Medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.2N 166.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.2N 166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 264
NM SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. A
170712Z WINDSAT 37GHZ SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION EXTENDING
NORTH FROM THE LLC WITH FORMATIVE MID-LEVEL BANDIND. A 171040Z METOP-
B ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 20
KNOT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W
WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE CURVING TO
THE NORTH AND BEGINNING QUICKER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#45 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Feb 17, 2019 8:55 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#46 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Feb 17, 2019 9:12 am

The track of 92W as of now.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#47 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:34 pm

According to JMA,in 48 hours it will be a TD.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#48 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 17, 2019 5:08 pm

This is the Monday mornings NWS Guam discussion of 92W.

.Tropical systems...
Scatterometer showed a circulation southeast of Kosrae near 3N167N
late Sunday night. All models bring this circulation to the vicinity
of the Marianas next weekend. GFS...ECMWF and ICON have it south of
Guam Saturday while the CMC shows it at that position on Monday.
These models have it passing west of the Marianas. NAVGEM takes the
circulation on a different track...passing east of Guam Monday. The
intensity of the circulation as it passes near the Marianas is still
uncertain...although expect windy and gusty conditions the coming
weekend.

Models have the habit of progressing the development of a weather
feature too rapidly. While the probability of the circulation passing
near the Marianas seems high the exact timing and intensity is not as
clear. With this said...residents of the Marianas should keep up on
the latest information.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#49 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Feb 17, 2019 8:48 pm

GFS weakens the system to 919mb.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#50 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Feb 17, 2019 9:03 pm

JTWC issued TCFA on the system.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#51 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 17, 2019 9:36 pm

TyphoonNara wrote:JTWC issued TCFA on the system.

https://i.imgur.com/a5oGOdf.gif


THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.4N
166.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 164.4E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING SEVERAL WEAK, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTERS (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. A
172208Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED,
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION
CENTER. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST, AS IT FURTHER INTENSIFIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY REACHES
WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
INTENSIFICATION WITH GFS, THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, SHOWING THE SYSTEM
REACHING WARNING STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#52 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Feb 17, 2019 10:46 pm

I'm thinking that's a little early.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#53 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:34 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#54 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:59 am

Given the support by models, at least a weak typhoon seems plausible.

00Z ECM ensembles:

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#55 Postby euro6208 » Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:28 am

92W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 18, 2019:

Location: 4.5°N 163.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#56 Postby euro6208 » Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:30 am

Shear is decreasing and an anticyclone has developed right over the LLC.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#57 Postby euro6208 » Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:33 am

UKMET loses this and develops another system out west.

LOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.02.2019



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92W ANALYSED POSITION : 3.5N 166.0E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 18.02.2019 3.5N 166.0E WEAK

12UTC 18.02.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 5.5N 159.0E




VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 19.02.2019 5.3N 157.1E WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 20.02.2019 5.0N 154.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.02.2019 5.5N 152.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.02.2019 6.8N 150.4E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.02.2019 8.0N 148.3E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.02.2019 9.0N 146.5E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.02.2019 9.7N 144.6E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.02.2019 10.3N 143.6E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.02.2019 11.1N 143.4E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.02.2019 11.7N 143.5E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#58 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:07 am

TPPN10 PGTW 180944

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (SE OF POHNPEI)

B. 18/0900Z

C. 4.99N

D. 160.07E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#59 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:17 am

euro6208 wrote:UKMET loses this and develops another system out west.

LOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.02.2019



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92W ANALYSED POSITION : 3.5N 166.0E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 18.02.2019 3.5N 166.0E WEAK

12UTC 18.02.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 5.5N 159.0E




VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 19.02.2019 5.3N 157.1E WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 20.02.2019 5.0N 154.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.02.2019 5.5N 152.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.02.2019 6.8N 150.4E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.02.2019 8.0N 148.3E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.02.2019 9.0N 146.5E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.02.2019 9.7N 144.6E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.02.2019 10.3N 143.6E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.02.2019 11.1N 143.4E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.02.2019 11.7N 143.5E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE


Image

As you can see from the 850mb vorticity graph, the system has developed two centers of circulation. The one UKMET develops is the secondary center though. It will be interesting to see how the system progresses later.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#60 Postby euro6208 » Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:20 am

GFS shifted east slightly towards Guam.


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