WPAC: WUTIP - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Is the GUAM radar already working again?

Yes radar has been working.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=gua&product=N0R&overlay=11100111&loop=no

[euro6208]

The Tropical Storm Watch for Guam is upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Agrihan and Pagan in the
northern Mariana Islands.

[cycloneye]

As of 00:00 UTC Feb 22, 2019:

Location: 8.2°N 147.1°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 962 mb

[TyphoonNara]

You can the eye is getting more and more defined

[TyphoonNara]

Up to 95 knots.

[TyphoonNara]

LG ring (surrounded by B) + OW eye

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A STEADILY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, WITH A FORMATIVE
10NM WIDE EYE FEATURE BECOMING VISIBLE BY 220100Z. A 212334Z AMSU
89GHZ AND A 212026 SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWED A RING OF
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 25NM MICROWAVE EYE, AND CONVECTIVE
BANDING EXTENDING APPROXIMATELY 200NM TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T5.0 (90 KNOTS) BASED ON THE APPEARANCE OF THE STRONG MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 02W IS TRACKING
THROUGH A REGION FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHORT TERM, WITH ROBUST WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS. RELATIVELY SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT
LESS, AROUND 10 KNOTS, AS THE STORM MOTION AND SHEAR VECTOR ARE IN
PHASE. SSTS OF 29 CELSIUS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
TY 02W CONTINUES TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
B. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR CENTERED TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER THIS POINT, THE STEERING RIDGE
REORIENTS TO THE EAST, AS IT ERODES FROM THE WEST DUE TO THE LOSS OF
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX
TRANSITING TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE WEST OF THE MARIANAS, ALLOWING TY 02W TO TURN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY TAU 72. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION TREND, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AT TAU
36 AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST. BEYOND THIS POINT,
THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE WITH INCREASING VWS, LOWER
MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND COOLER SSTS NEAR 26 CELSIUS, LEADING
TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A SPREAD OF 55NM AT TAU 36,
INCREASING TO 155NM AT TAU 72. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE TURN POLEWARD
AROUND TAU 48 WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE SHARPNESS OF THE TURN.
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH THIS
RUN AND THE JTWC TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 NOW LIES VERY NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE GUIDANCE BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN,
DEPICTING EITHER A SHARP RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST OR DISSIPATION
WITH REMNANTS TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
A BLEND OF THE TWO, FAVORING ULTIMATE DISSIPATION BUT NOT THE TURN
TOWARDS THE WEST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
POLEWARD INTO THE COL AREA BETWEEN STRÂ’S LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA
AND NEAR 170E, FORWARD SPEED WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY. CAUGHT IN THE
WEAK STEERING IN THE COL, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE CAPTURED BY A FAST-
MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS IT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH BUT WILL
RATHER DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS VWS INCREASES AND DRY,
STABLE AIR PUSHES DOWN ON IT FROM THE NORTH. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BEYOND TAU 72, WITH A SPREAD OF 510NM BETWEEN THE
GFS TO THE NORTHEAST AND NAVGEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK LIES JUST WEST OF A GROUPING OF MODELS AND NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[TyphoonNara]

Now a cat 3 typhoon.

02W WUTIP
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 22, 2019:

Location: 9.0°N 146.1°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 mb

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 291 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY AS EVIDENCED BY A
MORE SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A RAGGED 15-NM FORMATIVE EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
FORMATIVE EYE WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR A POLEWARD TILT
AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 220347Z 36GHZ AMSR2
IMAGE. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY
A ROBUST WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 29 CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
B. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, TY 02W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THEN, AFTER TAU 48, MORE NORTHWARD AS
THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU
12 AS THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 72, TY 02W WILL BE REDUCED TO 80 KNOTS.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 THEN SPREADS
OUT TO 245NM BY TAU 72 WITH NAVGEM AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY LEFT OF
THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE LEFT OUTLIERS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY WUTIP WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE REDUCED VERTICAL
EXTENT WILL RESULT IN A SLOWER STORM MOTION UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A LOWER REFLECTION OF THE STR. BY TAU 120, TY 02W WILL
WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ERODE
AND WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE RESULTING IN AN EVEN SLOWER, WESTWARD, OR
QUASI-STATIONARY STORM MOTION AFTER TAU 72, AS PROPOSED BY SOME OF
THE NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF, EEMN, AND CTCX. IN VIEW OF THE
SIGNIFICANT VARIANCE AMONG THE NUMERICAL MODELS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

06Z GFS kills Wutip like the Euro, after how many countless consecutive runs of recurving this TC

[euro6208]

Up to 105 knots...As usual, JMA (80 knots) will always be behind for strong typhoons because they use 10 min average.

02W WUTIP 190222 1200 9.8N 145.1E WPAC 105 944

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 221208

A. TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP)

B. 22/1140Z

C. 9.93N

D. 145.13E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 5.5. MET 5.5 PT 5.5 DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/0725Z 9.40N 145.70E SSMS
22/0915Z 9.58N 145.58E SSMS


DAVIS

[euro6208]

Wait this is February right?

[1900hurricane]

The backing shear has certainly lessened over the past 12 hours. Looks like the limiting factor right now is dry air.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 221243
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Wutip (02W) Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP022019
1043 PM ChST Fri Feb 22 2019

...TYPHOON WUTIP MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DUE SOUTH OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
The Typhoon Warning for Satawal in Yap State is cancelled.
The Tropical Storm Watch for Woleai in Yap State is cancelled.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Guam and Rota in
the Mariana Islands and for Faraulep in Yap State.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Tinian and Saipan in
the Mariana Islands and Agrihan and Pagan in the Northern Mariana
Islands.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...9.9N 145.0E

About 95 miles north-northeast of Faraulep
About 245 miles south of Guam
About 290 miles south of Rota
About 355 miles south of Tinian
About 365 miles south of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds...115 mph
Present movement...northwest...310 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...the eye of Typhoon Wutip was located
by both satellite and the Guam radar at Latitude 9.9 degrees North
and Longitude 145.0 degrees East. TY Wutip is moving northwest at
15 mph. It is expected to maintain this general course with a
decrease in forward speed over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 115 mph...a Category 3 Major
Typhoon. Typhoon Wutip is forecast to remain at or near this
intensity through Saturday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 190 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM early Saturday morning followed by
an intermediate advisory at 500 AM.

$$

Edson

[euro6208]

Not much to report here. WInds has certainly become stronger and rains have been off and on. Expecting the worst of this passing storm tomorrow.

[euro6208]

One study (see PDF) by the U.S. Navy examined 162 tropical cyclones that came within 180 nautical miles (about 205 miles) of Guam between 1945 and 1990. Of those 162 events, just one (a tropical storm) occurred in February, making it the most placid month of the year on average.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Early-Start-2019-Typhoon-Season-Category-2-Wutip-Heads-Towards-Guam?cm_ven=cat6-widget

[NotSparta]

Very good structure. Conditions look favorable for a day or so, then it gets pulverized

[euro6208]

That outflow is incredible.