WPAC: WUTIP - Post-Tropical

[TyphoonNara]

It is rare to see EURO so bullish on an early season system.

[TyphoonNara]

JMA is forecasting the system to strengthen into a typhoon in 48 hours.

[euro6208]

We now have Tropical Depression 02W.

02W TWO 190219 0600 4.3N 158.1E WPAC 25 1001

[Hayabusa]

[doomhaMwx]

First JTWC warning, 90kts peak.


https://imgur.com/a/0i7bt90

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 970 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED,
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 190812Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE (MI) DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CORE
CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING. BASED ON THE MI, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25
KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES, WARM SST (29 TO 30C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES.
TD 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY, NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 165NM
AT TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH A BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS (AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE)
AND NAVGEM INDICATE A RECURVE SCENARIO JUST WEST OF GUAM, WHICH
APPEARS UNLIKELY (LOW PROBABILITY). BOTH THESE MODELS ERRONEOUSLY
DRIVE THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO AND THROUGH A STRONG STR POSITIONED
OVER GUAM WITH NO MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENT...IN FACT,
GFS AND NAVGEM SHOW A BROAD STR TO THE EAST OF JAPAN. THE REMAINDER
OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE (ECMF, EEMN, HWRF, JGSM, EGRR)
INDICATES A FLATTER TRACK MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST FAVORS A NON-RECURVE SCENARIO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION
DUE TO THE LACK OF A MIDLATITUDE RECURVE MECHANISM (DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM), AND PRESENCE OF A STRONG STR.
TD 02W IS FORECAST, HOWEVER, TO INTENSIFY TO 90 KNOTS AS IT SKIRTS
SOUTH OF GUAM, AND MAY STILL PRODUCE GALE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS AND
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS OVER GUAM. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

[TyphoonNara]

TPPN10 PGTW 190925

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SE OF POHNPEI)

B. 19/0900Z

C. 4.27N

D. 157.54E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 190925 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 02W Advisory Number 1...Corrected
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP022019
716 PM ChST Tue Feb 19 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W NEWLY FORMED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Nukuoro in Pohnpei
State; Lukunor, Losap and Chuuk in Chuuk State.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Fananu, Puluwat and Ulul
in Chuuk State and Satawal in Yap State.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Nukuoro in Pohnpei
State; Lukunor, Losap and Chuuk in Chuuk State.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Fananu, Puluwat and Ulul
in Chuuk State and Satawal in Yap State.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location...4.4N 157.6E

About 105 miles south-southeast of Sapwuafik
About 175 miles south-southwest of Pohnpei
About 185 miles east of Nukuoro
About 260 miles east-southeast of Lukunor
About 375 miles east-southeast of Losap
About 445 miles east-southeast of Chuuk
About 475 miles southeast of Fananu
About 1075 miles southeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...west...275 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 02W
was located near Latitude 4.4 degrees North and Longitude 157.6
degrees East. 02W is moving west at 15 mph. It is expected to
maintain this general course with a slight decrease in forward speed
over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph. 02W is forecast to intensify over
the next few days, possibly becoming a tropical storm by early
Wednesday morning.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM tonight followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 AM early Wednesday morning.

$$

Kleeschulte

[Hayabusa]

Potential max intensity in its track

[euro6208]

Indeed...Latest 06Z GFS doesn't want to budge. Track shifted east and makes a direct hit to Guam...

[cycloneye]

Thoughts from a famous chaser.

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1097829180966760448

[euro6208]

Looking really healthy...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2019 Time : 121000 UTC
Lat : 4:25:33 N Lon : 156:54:02 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1005.0mb/ 31.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.3 3.6

Center Temp : -69.2C Cloud Region Temp : -56.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 1.00 ARC in LT GRAY

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.6 degrees

****************************************************

[1900hurricane]

It's always fun seeing a system straddle the bottom of the basin wide WV loop.

[mrbagyo]

Wow, we have a tropical system in the midst of February.

[wxman57]

Wow, we have a tropical system in the midst of February.

Tropical cyclones are not that uncommon during the winter months there. It would be hard for one to survive in the South China Sea this time of year, though.

[1900hurricane]

Wow, we have a tropical system in the midst of February.

Tropical cyclones are not that uncommon during the winter months there. It would be hard for one to survive in the South China Sea this time of year, though.

Ehh, they're not non-existent, but I still wouldn't exactly call them common in February.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1092986140934717441

[TyphoonNara]

JTWC upgrades its peak to 105 knots.

[TyphoonNara]

WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 908 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 191030Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE (MI) DEPICTS
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
POSITIONED UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CORE
CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING. BASED ON THE MI, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
VERY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SST (29 TO 30C) AND HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TD 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TO 100 KNOTS
BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
SPREAD OF 175NM AT TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH A BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AFUM,
EGRR, JGSM AND NAVGEM INDICATE A RECURVE SCENARIO NEAR GUAM, WHICH
APPEARS UNLIKELY. GFS AND NAVGEM ERRONEOUSLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM
DIRECTLY INTO AND THROUGH A STRONG STR POSITIONED OVER GUAM WITH NO
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENT. ADDITIONALLY, GFS AND NAVGEM
SHOW A BROAD STR TO THE EAST OF JAPAN, WHICH SHOULD REINFORCE THE
EXISTING STR. THE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE (ECMF,
EEMN) INDICATES A FLATTER TRACK MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST FAVORS A NON-RECURVE SCENARIO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION
DUE TO THE LACK OF A MIDLATITUDE RECURVE MECHANISM (DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM), AND PRESENCE OF A STRONG STR.
TD 02W IS FORECAST, HOWEVER, TO INTENSIFY TO 105 KNOTS AS IT SKIRTS
SOUTH OF GUAM, AND MAY STILL PRODUCE GALE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS AND
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS OVER GUAM. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

[TyphoonNara]

T2.0

TPPN10 PGTW 191509

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SE OF POHNPEI)

B. 19/1430Z

C. 4.38N

D. 156.43E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/1030Z 4.50N 157.08E MMHS


MARTIN