WPAC: Sepat - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

94W INVEST 190616 1200 4.4N 141.3E WPAC 15 1010

[Hayabusa]

This is what the GFS ensembles are showing, and 12Z run is the strongest run so far for this system.

[Hayabusa]

Hmmm

[Kingarabian]

Hmmm
[url]https://i.imgur.com/fcXSOwF.png[url]

Spotty support on the 12z EPS. But at least members are finally showing something.

[euro6208]

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has it too. Looks like it will be a slow developer as it doesn't take off for at least another 5 days.

[Tailspin]

Past 10 EC determinic runs had no interest. The next 00z -12z will be interesting
to see if anything does change.

[Tailspin]

Past 10 EC deterministic runs had no interest. The next 00z -12z will be interesting
to see if anything does change.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS got it and is stronger. Maybe development starts around 72-96 hours.

[dexterlabio]

It's interesting the Euro seems to input that the active MJO signal is non-existent in this part of the world.

[Kingarabian]

It's interesting the Euro seems to input that the active MJO signal is non-existent in this part of the world.

Yeah that's pretty much it.

[euro6208]

94W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Jun 17, 2019:

Location: 4.4°N 139.7°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb

[Nancy Smar]

WP, 94, 2019061700, , BEST, 0, 48N, 1396E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 90, 40, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 94, 2019061706, , BEST, 0, 49N, 1393E, 15, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 90, 40, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
WP, 94, 2019061712, , BEST, 0, 51N, 1390E, 15, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 55, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

[Nancy Smar]

ABPW10 PGTW 171430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/171430Z-180600ZJUN2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N
139.0E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171125Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING
PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A
171126Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15
KNOT WINDS AND SOME ISOLATED 20 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) AND BROAD
EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 30-31C. A RECENT SOUNDING FROM PALAU INDICATES DRY
AIR IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS, WHICH MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH GFS INDICATING
SLOW INTENSIFICATION WHILE NAVGEM INDICATES MORE AGGRESSIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) AS
LOW.//
NNNN

[Nancy Smar]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 04N 139E WEST SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

Hmm interesting now it's a minor TD by JMA, did the main top models forecast 94W to be a minor TD by now? GFS 06Z has 94W at 1007 mb by 12Z so...

[Hayabusa]

Nice OHC to fuel but remember Maliksi from June 2018? Maliksi's OHC was fully loaded but Maliksi only turned out to be STS

SSTs meanwhile have many 30C spots in its possible path

[Hayabusa]

GFS 12Z keeps it weak unlike previous runs

[Hayabusa]

Euro 12Z more stronger looks like TD-TS

[Kingarabian]

Euro 12Z more stronger looks like TD-TS

Yeah Euro is finally on board. 12z EPS should show much more members with development.

Edit: Much more EPS members with development on the 12z vs the 00z run.