WPAC: Sepat - Post-Tropical

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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#21 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:18 pm

Okay so now that the Euro shows something, the latest GFS run dropped this? I have to laugh.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#22 Postby Tailspin » Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:00 am

Dry trades across the basin...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#23 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:05 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 139.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 280
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 180002Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING. A 180043Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 15 KNOT WINDS AND SOME ISOLATED
20 KNOT WINDS NEAR CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT
30-31C. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH GFS, NAVGEM,
UKMET, AND ECMWF INDICATING SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT TWO
TO FOUR DAYS. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#24 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:08 am

94W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Jun 18, 2019:

Location: 5.9°N 137.9°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

Image
Image
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#25 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:12 am

Looks worser than ever.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#26 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:44 am

Did Wutip's record shutdown WPAC indefinitely? :lol:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#27 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:12 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 139.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 139.4E, APPROXIMATELY 330
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 190406Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.
A 181145Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 15
KNOT WINDS AND SOME ISOLATED 20 KNOT WINDS NEAR CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISORGANIZED OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 30-31C. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DEPICT A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH
MINIMAL TO NO INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#28 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:21 am

What a surprise...EURO is very bullish on this now.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#29 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:24 am

It's GFS's turn...It shows no development at all for many days now. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#30 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:29 am

euro6208 wrote:What a surprise...EURO is very bullish on this now.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/rHE6nRK.gif[url]

I think its just bad MJO handling in general.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#31 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:35 am

UKMET on board

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.3N 135.5E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 22.06.2019 12.1N 135.0E WEAK

12UTC 22.06.2019 13.9N 132.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.06.2019 15.5N 131.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.06.2019 17.1N 130.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.06.2019 18.1N 129.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.06.2019 18.6N 128.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.06.2019 19.1N 127.9E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#32 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:06 am

Strongest run yet could this just be a fluke or ?
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#33 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:05 am

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 19.06.2019

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.7N 134.6E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.06.2019 72 13.7N 134.6E 1004 25
0000UTC 23.06.2019 84 15.3N 133.3E 1002 30
1200UTC 23.06.2019 96 16.4N 131.9E 1001 31
0000UTC 24.06.2019 108 17.5N 130.8E 1000 31
1200UTC 24.06.2019 120 17.7N 129.6E 996 40
0000UTC 25.06.2019 132 18.1N 128.5E 987 50
1200UTC 25.06.2019 144 18.4N 127.8E 977 57
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#34 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:39 pm

12z GFS nothing, 12z Euro down to 966mb at 168 hours.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#35 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jun 19, 2019 5:27 pm

18Z GFS back to not nothing
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#36 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:18 pm

GFS again becoming bullish on this. 949 mb peak with a possible landfall over Okinawa.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#37 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:55 pm

94W INVEST 190620 0000 5.7N 138.4E WPAC 20 1005
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#38 Postby Cypresso » Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:00 pm

euro6208 wrote:GFS again becoming bullish on this. 949 mb peak with a possible landfall over Okinawa.

Interesting fluctuations. Thanks to all for the updates and graphics.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#39 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:45 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 200130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200130Z-200600ZJUN2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 139.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 138.4E, APPROXIMATELY 243
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 192108Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A VERY
BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE EDGES OF THE CIRCULATION AND BEGINNING TO TAKE ON SOME MIDLEVEL
ROTATION. 94W IS IN AN OVERALL MARGINAL AREA FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT, WITH ADEQUATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW-MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE IN
THIS REGION OF THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA AT 30-32 CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWEST, POSSIBLY FORMING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TAU
96.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED THE AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN
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Tailspin

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#40 Postby Tailspin » Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:42 am

Image

Decent probs to form think EC.
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