WPAC: MITAG - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

Models have been trying to develop this since the past few days and unsurprisingly recurves it

91W INVEST 190924 1800 11.0N 155.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

[Tailspin]

GFS 18z liked this system @150hrs too get it's act together.

https://imgur.com/2Kwfoip

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

low

ABPW10 PGTW 250800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/250800Z-260600ZSEP2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.0N 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 493 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 250617Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL
IMAGE REVEALS THE FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. INVEST 91W IS
CURRENTLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (31
TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
INTENSIFY, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Wow already non warning TD

WWJP27 RJTD 250600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 152E WEST 10 KT.

[mrbagyo]

Wow already non warning TD

WWJP27 RJTD 250600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 152E WEST 10 KT.

Well, it looks quite organized to be just a JMA "Low"

[Hayabusa]

Wow UKMET, if models are to believe in current model intensity and track forecast, Mitag could be Japan's strongest yet this year

[1900hurricane]

Looks increasingly like this will be a player down the road. It's isolated an unsheared, which will probably help it consolidated into a decent system.

JTWC must have a serious issue getting data out. Storm floaters are all messed up everywhere, and that's not everything wonky with data sources that rely on JTWC data.

[1900hurricane]

Here's a SWIR and IR loop of 91W. You can make manual floaters on sites like Weathernerds and RAMMB Slider if you want to see. Good vorticity is easily apparent.

[1900hurricane]

12Z EPS members.

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

medium

ABPW10 PGTW 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/252200Z-260600ZSEP2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.0N 153.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 149.7E, APPROXIMATELY 341 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 250617Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER
THE LLCC. INVEST 91W IS CURRENTLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MARGINAL (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT
48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED MEDIUM.

[Highteeld]

UKmet has a 932 mb landfall in southern japan. would be a huge hit for them. euro pretty bullish too in the mid 940's, but further east/n re: landfall.

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 149.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 144.6E, APPROXIMATELY 50
NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GUAM
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A WEAKLY-DEFINED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 260005Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDING WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION. A 252332Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION OVER
AND TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM WITH LIGHT CORE WINDS AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER GUAM
ARE GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1009MB (24-HOUR SLP DECREASE
OF ONLY 1MB). INVEST 91W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD
EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29-30
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W
WILL CONSOLIDATE WHILE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. BASED ON THE GRADUAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

HWRF peaks around 940's and a direct hit for Okinawa.

[Tailspin]

Like too see another beasty typhoon myself. CFS 200mb and shear anom forecasts don't give me any
real confidence we will.


https://imgur.com/BFnI7GW


https://imgur.com/kzurpkp

[Nancy Smar]

TD
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 26 September 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 26 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N13°00' (13.0°)
E143°30' (143.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 1010 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 27 September>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N14°25' (14.4°)
E141°00' (141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 27 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°30' (15.5°)
E138°30' (138.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

[Nancy Smar]

WTPN21 PGTW 261430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 145.4E TO 16.9N 134.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
RADAR DATA AT 261400Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 144.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6N 144.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 63
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND GUAM RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A
261137Z MHS 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LLC. A 261137Z ASCAT-A IMAGE
SHOWS A DEFINED, ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH LIGHT CORE WINDS AND 20-
25 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER
GUAM ARE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1010MB, HOWEVER,
SLP HAS DECREASED 2.5MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. BASED ON THE 26/12Z
GUAM SOUNDING, GRADIENT WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH 10-
17 KNOT WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED AND ARE NOW FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29-30 CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH SIGNIFICANT
CONSOLIDATION / INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
AWAY FROM GUAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
271430Z.//
NNNN