WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

So are we gonna sleep on this one then be surprised later on?

[mrbagyo]

So are we gonna sleep on this one then be surprised later on?

Hehehe, the ASCAT page seems to be the one who's sleeping (not updated)

On a side note - our reservoirs badly need some rain so this system will be a boon.

[dexterlabio]

^actually, the models showing this stalling near Luzon is a best case scenario in filling up the reservoirs.

[dexterlabio]

This one seems to be trying hard to wrap its exposed center with clothing as the circulation is firing some serious convection. Let's see if this deep convection can help speed up its consolidation.

[ManilaTC]

Up to 20kts... on BT

91W INVEST 191111 1800 12.0N 132.3E WPAC 20 1004

[ManilaTC]

JMA just upgraded 91W to a warning Tropical Depression, forecast to be a Tropical Storm in 24 hours.

TD
Issued at 19:30 UTC, 11 November 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 11 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N12°40' (12.7°)
E131°50' (131.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 12 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°30' (12.5°)
E128°50' (128.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 112130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 132.6E TO 13.3N 127.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111118Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 132.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 132.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY
496 NM NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111831Z 89GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. 91W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY BEING ON THE EDGE OF UNFAVORABLE (15 TO
30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
122130Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

91W or 92W, which is going to be Fengshen?

[Hayabusa]

[ManilaTC]

91W or 92W, which is going to be Fengshen?

Which one gets Fengshen and which one gets Kalmaegi hehe

[dexterlabio]

This is quite tricky...if we believe the JMA position fix, then this one is very much a TD, on the cusp on being a TS... BUT if the JTWC fix is correct, then there is so much to work on to get organized, as convection is terribly sheared to the west.

Can't say for sure if which of the JMA and JTWC position is correct, but to my amateur eye the center might not be too far away from the convection canopy, and I'm basing my observation on visible imagery.

[mrbagyo]

PAGASA just upgraded this one to TD Ramon

 https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1194075922468462593




NESDIS ASCAT page is still not updating, any alternative sites?

[1900hurricane]

Try OSPO, although it doesn't have ASCAT C.



This site also works.

[mrbagyo]

Try OSPO, although it doesn't have ASCAT C.

https://i.imgur.com/0tImJ4a.png

This site also works.

Thanks! Bookmarked

[mrbagyo]

LLC is fully exposed.

[doomhaMwx]

Lots of rain in store for eastern parts of Luzon.

[dexterlabio]

LLC is fully exposed.
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/index5.gif

Wow this is a badly sheared system. Now I see why most models are not showing much out of this, although we must keep an eye on the anticipated stalling. Once the shear lets up and it takes some sweet time over water, things can happen very quickly.

[Hayabusa]

27W soon, could be named but I don't see it anything more than that like a typhoon, UKMET has a typhoon but I am extremely skeptical about it.

91W INVEST 191112 1800 12.1N 130.4E WPAC 25 1002

27W TWENTYSEVE 191112 1800 12.1N 130.4E WPAC 25 1002

[Hayabusa]

WTPN32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WARNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/112121ZNOV19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 12.1N 130.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 130.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.1N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.2N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.0N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.8N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.7N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.6N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.7N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 130.0E.
12NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 569 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W
(FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 112130).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WDPN32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
569 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH DEEP, FLARING, AND
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 30NM FROM AND
PARTLY EXPOSING AN ELONGATED AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE PARTLY
EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW AND IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT ASCAT
PASSES. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (>30C)
SST AND STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY A COLD DRY NORTHERLY SURGE
OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND MODERATE TO STRONG (15-25KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ON THIS SYSTEM
AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 27W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS
AND TRACKS MORE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EDGE AND HIGHER REFLECTION OF
THE STR.
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 45KTS BY TAU 72 AS IT DRIFTS EAST OF LUZON.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD,
ALBEIT AT A SLOWER PACE. INCREASING VWS AND NORTHERLY SURGE NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM, REDUCING ITS FORWARD SPEED
AND ITS INTENSITY - DOWN TO 30KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THE DIRECTION OF TRACK; HOWEVER, THERE IS A
WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL ENVELOPE (OVER 640NM) WITH EEMN ON THE
EXTREME LEFT AND AFUM ON THE RIGHT MARGIN. THIS, PLUS THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
CYCLONE, LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN