WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Depression

[Nancy Smar]

92W INVEST 200731 0000 16.8N 131.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 310600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 310600.
WARNING VALID 010600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 17N 130E NNW SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZJUL2020-010600ZAUG2020//
RMKS/
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.8N 131.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 310457Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET
BY UNFAVORABLE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLC.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO CONSOLIDATE AND IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[doomhaMwx]

EURO


UKMET

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.07.2020

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 19.4N 127.3E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 01.08.2020 19.4N 127.3E WEAK

00UTC 02.08.2020 20.6N 126.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.08.2020 21.1N 125.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.08.2020 21.9N 124.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.08.2020 22.5N 123.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.08.2020 25.0N 120.9E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.08.2020 25.4N 118.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[Hayabusa]

UK seems to like 92W more.

[Hayabusa]

This too but the TCFA text is from 91W so I didn't post it.

[Ed_2001]

WTPN22 PGTW 312130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311821Z JUL 20//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 311830)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1N 130.0E TO 22.7N 125.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.4N 129.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.6N 129.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 129.6E, APPROXIMATELY
465 NM SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING
BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE EAST. A 311709Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTH. A 311300Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS TIGHT
TROUGHING WITH A SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE.
92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WHILE
INTENSIFYING, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN 36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 312132 COR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (E OF LUZON)

B. 31/2100Z

C. 18.62N

D. 129.50E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
31/1709Z 18.12N 129.43E AMS2


RICHARDSON

[Ed_2001]

WTPQ21 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 19.8N 129.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 22.0N 125.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT

[Ed_2001]

WTPQ21 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 19.8N 129.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 22.0N 125.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT

[Ed_2001]

Here we go!

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 128.8E

[Ed_2001]

[euro6208]

Finally the spell is broken.

WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 394
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 312133Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. PAIRED WITH THE MSI, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KTS HEDGED BETWEEN CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0 (25 KTS) BY PGTW/RJTD AND A 010132Z ASCAT-B PASS WHICH SHOWS A SWATH OF 30-34KT WINDS LOCATED TO THE EAST. TD 03W IS CURRENTLY WITHIN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TD 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 03W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRANSITS OVER WARM WATERS,
REACHING PEAK INTENSITY (45 KTS) AROUND TAU 36. AFTER THIS,
INCREASING VWS (20-25 KTS) WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR, THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF SHANGHAI
AROUND TAU 72.
C. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, TD 03W WILL BEGIN WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
VWS AND FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM
WILL RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. ALONG THIS
TRACK, TD 03W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL JET FLOW AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96.
ETT COMPLETION IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 120, IF NOT SOONER.NUMERICAL MODELS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM SOLUTION LOCATED
WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS, ARE IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THE NAVGEM SOLUTION SHOWS A NORTHWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24.
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, THERE IS INCREASED SPREAD IN THE MODELS
DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE. OVERALL, THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Unlike Sinlaku, 03W is a small impressive system which has quickly gotten its act together.

Closely watch how 03W develops. Global models keep it a weak/moderate TS at most (reflected on JTWC's forecast), but I think this is another case of how the globals generally underestimate small TCs. HWRF handles small TCs better so I wouldn't ignore how the model consistently strengthens 03W into a typhoon before landfall over China. JMA's GSM model is also on board with a compact typhoon over East China Sea.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED NEAR-
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 010652Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25
TO 30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE
WITH LOW NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HINDERING
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OFFSET BY THE IMPROVED
OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (30C). TD 03W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED
TO THE NORTH AND ALSO EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR THROUGH TAU 48 THEN NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD THE SHANGHAI REGION OF EASTERN CHINA.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOLE OUTLIER, NAVGEM, THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 144NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72. UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS FROM NAZE (47909) AND MINAMIDAITO-JIMA
(47945) SUPPORT THE CURRENT TRACK PHILOSOPHY AND SHOW LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW REFLECTING THE STRONG STR. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 36,
HOWEVER, INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS)
SHOULD HAMPER DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 36. DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AFTER TAU 48, TD 03W WILL WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) SHOULD
COMMENCE NEAR TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RECURVE INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOL WATER (22-23C) OF THE WEST SEA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES
BUT MAY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Greatly underestimated. No way this is just a TD. Likely a mid to high end TS right now.

[doomhaMwx]

JMA forecasts it to become a minimal typhoon shortly before making landfall over China.

TS 2004 (Hagupit)
Issued at 13:20 UTC, 1 August 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 1 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°20' (21.3°)
E127°05' (127.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 165 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 2 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°35' (22.6°)
E125°35' (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 2 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°50' (23.8°)
E124°20' (124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 3 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°20' (27.3°)
E122°00' (122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 210 km (115 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°00' (33.0°)
E120°30' (120.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (165 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N37°35' (37.6°)
E124°20' (124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 430 km (230 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 6 August>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N41°30' (41.5°)
E133°35' (133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle

[euro6208]

Quite a contrast from JTWC's peak of 45 knots.

[euro6208]

HWRF goes bonkers with this.

[mrbagyo]

Headed to Yaeyama islands.