#11 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:26 am
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.6N
142.2E, APPROXIMATELY 463 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 161124Z MHS METOP-
B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SCATTERED FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLC. A 161123Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A WEAK, SLIGHTLY OBLONG LLC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. 96W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BEFORE BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT NEARS LUZON, POTENTIALLY
REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacifichttps://www.weather.gov/gum/
