WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[Iceresistance]

Always concerning to see the Euro produce monster runs... I hope this thing stays OTS as it looks to become quite strong. Not sure what the strongest April typhoon on record is, but whatever it is, this one might challenge it if these model runs verify.

Can I see the photos of the crazy Euro model runs?

[JW-_-]

[mrbagyo]

If we just have a paid subscription to Fleetmon or Marinetraffic.com, we can see the current condition (wind, pressure, temp etc, wave height, etc. ) of the sea near 94W (near realtime) -

[ElectricStorm]

Always concerning to see the Euro produce monster runs... I hope this thing stays OTS as it looks to become quite strong. Not sure what the strongest April typhoon on record is, but whatever it is, this one might challenge it if these model runs verify.

Can I see the photos of the crazy Euro model runs?

Im pretty sure someone posted them here already... Idk I just skimmed through though

[aspen]

Always concerning to see the Euro produce monster runs... I hope this thing stays OTS as it looks to become quite strong. Not sure what the strongest April typhoon on record is, but whatever it is, this one might challenge it if these model runs verify.

Can I see the photos of the crazy Euro model runs?

Im pretty sure someone posted them here already... Idk I just skimmed through though

Yes, the Euro run and the ensembles have been posted here. The 12z run peaked at 906 mbar.

[styzeb]

Always concerning to see the Euro produce monster runs... I hope this thing stays OTS as it looks to become quite strong. Not sure what the strongest April typhoon on record is, but whatever it is, this one might challenge it if these model runs verify.

The strongest April typhoon on record, was perhaps Maysak in 2015, Isa in 1997, or Andy in 1989.

[Hayabusa]

From JTWC best track, the strongest April typhoon by winds was Typhoon Thelma of 1956 at 150 knots, but in modern reliable records was Typhoon Isa of 1997 at 145 knots.


In terms of pressure by JMA, Maysak was the strongest April typhoon at 910 mb.

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/a3suG3e.png

If we just have a paid subscription to Fleetmon or [url=https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:144.3/centery:6.0/zoom:5]Marinetraffic.com[/rl], we can see the current condition (wind, pressure, temp etc, wave height, etc. ) of the sea near 94W (near realtime) -

Looks like they have an option for a free account which allows access for 15 mins per day.

[cycloneye]

Any ASCAT pass?

Found one that has partial view. Is still broad.

[JW-_-]

Humm i wonder with this model storm.

[Subtrop]

WWJP27 RJTD 110000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 110000.
WARNING VALID 120000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 04N 143E ALMOST STATIONARY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.

[euro6208]

At this point I wouldn't be surprise if Surigae becomes the strongest April typhoon on record. Models are going hyper on this.

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

After caving in to the GFS last 12Z, Euro 00Z is back to its western solution again.

[Hayabusa]

This latest Euro run is the closest Philippine approach since it started to operationally model 94W a very strong typhoon .

[JW-_-]

[mrbagyo]

94W INVEST 210411 1200 4.8N 144.0E WPAC 20 1007

Woleai Atoll (7.4N, 143.9E) reported maximum sustained wind of 28 kph from the E at around 12:00 UTC
AAXX 11124 91317 11473 80915 10261 20253 30083 40087 5//// 60631 78082 82902 333 562/9 59021 70162 82917 88079 555 91112

[Subtrop]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.4N 144.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 144.0E, APPROXIMATELY 516
NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS SYMMETRICAL FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A PARTIAL 111048Z ASCAT-A PASS DEPICTS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN ELONGATED LLC WITH 15-20 KT WINDS PRESENT TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLC. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[aspen]

12z GFS remains unchanged from the runs of the last several days. It is shockingly consistent with its modeled peak intensities and tracks. Let’s see if the 12z Euro has another bomber run today.

[aspen]

At 216 hrs on the Euro, the system peaks at 926 mbar and recurves further from the Philippines than the last run. I think the actual peak was between points on the model available on Tropical Tidbits. What does the high-res Euro show?