WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

Surface Pressure near Surigae


Surface Obs from Yap


Surface obs from Palau

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 150116
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Surigae (02W) Special Advisory Number 6A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP022021
1116 AM ChST Thu Apr 15 2021

...TROPICAL STORM SURIGAE NEARLY STATIONARY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Koror in the Republic
of Palau.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Koror in the
Republic of Palau.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Ngulu in Yap
State and Kayangel in the Republic of Palau.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...8.6N 136.5E

About 70 miles west-northwest of Ngulu
About 125 miles west-southwest of Yap
About 125 miles east-northeast of Kayangel
About 165 miles east-northeast of Koror
About 655 miles west-southwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...50 mph
Present movement...Nearly Stationary

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Surigae
was located near Latitude 8.6 degrees North and Longitude 136.5
degrees East. Tropical Storm Surigae is nearly stationary but it is
expected to begin a slow westward motion later today, heading
into the Philippine sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50 mph. Tropical Storm
Surigae is expected to intensify over the next several days, and
will likely become a typhoon on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles to the
northwest of the center, and up to 125 miles to the southwest.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM this afternoon, followed by an
intermediate advisory at 500 PM.

$$

Slaughter/Aydlett

[euro6208]

518
WTPQ81 PGUM 142302
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM SURIGAE (02W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
902 AM ChST Thu Apr 15 2021

...TROPICAL STORM SURIGAE DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Kayangel.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
This local statement provides information and recommended actions
for people on Ngulu in Yap State, and for Kayangel and Koror in the
Republic of Palau.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Kayangel in the
Republic of Palau.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Ngulu in Yap State.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Koror in Palau.

.STORM INFORMATION...
At 700 AM ChST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Surigae was
located about 80 miles northwest of Ngulu and about 145 miles east-
northeast of Kayangel, near Latitude 9.0 degrees North and Longitude
136.8 degrees East, drifting west-northwest at 3 mph with maximum
sustained winds of 50 mph.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
Tropical Storm Surigae will move slowly west-northwestward away from
Ngulu today and tonight. Surigae will slowly intensify as it passes
north of Koror and Kayangel tonight and Friday morning.

.NEXT UPDATE...
The next local statement will be issued by 300 PM this afternoon or
sooner if needed.

...NGULU...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Stay in a sturdy shelter until winds have subsided later this
morning. Follow instructions from your emergency officials.

...WIND INFORMATION...
Southwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 45 mph will subside to
between 20 and 30 mph later this morning. Marine conditions will be
hazardous for small craft.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
Dangerous surf of 13 to 15 feet will persist along west and south
facing reefs this morning. Surf should subside to hazardous levels
of 11 to 13 feet this afternoon. Coastal inundation of 1 to 2 feet
is expected along southern and western shores this morning.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible through this
evening.

...KAYANGEL...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Complete preparations for damaging winds and local flooding, expected
later today and tonight. Find a sturdy shelter before damaging winds
of 40 mph or more arrive by late this afternoon or this evening. Stay
up to date with the latest information from your weather service
office and follow instructions from your emergency officials.

...WIND INFORMATION...
West winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph in showers will
continue through early this afternoon. Winds will become damaging
at 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 55 mph in heavy showers by late this
afternoon, and continue overnight. All vessels, especially small
craft, should remain in port.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
Hazardous surf of 10 and 13 feet along west and south facing reefs
will become dangerous at 13 to 15 feet this afternoon. Surf may
build further to between 14 and 16 feet tonight.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is likely through Friday morning. Flash
flooding is possible today and tonight.

...KOROR...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Maintain preparations for possible damaging winds and local flooding
later today. Stay up to date with the latest information from your
weather service office and follow instructions from your emergency
officials.

...WIND INFORMATION...
West winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph in showers will
continue today. Winds may become damaging at 40 to 45 mph this
afternoon and evening. All vessels, especially small craft, should
remain in port.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
Hazardous surf of 10 and 13 feet along west and south facing reefs
will become dangerous at 13 to 15 feet this afternoon. Surf may
build further to between 14 and 16 feet tonight.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is possible through Friday morning. Flash
flooding and mudslides are possible today and tonight.

$$

Middlebrooke

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 150037

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02W (SURIGAE)

B. 15/0000Z

C. 8.58N

D. 136.47E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
14/1913Z 8.88N 136.73E SSMI
14/1915Z 8.87N 136.72E SSMS
14/2111Z 8.97N 136.57E SSMS


HEINS

[R o x]

PLEASE let this typhoon come to Taiwan !!!
Here in Zhunan (close to Hsinchu) our lake is at 7% currently and this is the second week we have a two days water supply stop being evaluated now whether a third day is necessary ...

[mrbagyo]

02W SURIGAE 210415 0600 8.9N 136.3E WPAC 50 990

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

00Z

[mrbagyo]

Euro 00z IR Simulation

[mrbagyo]

[InfernoFlameCat]

Holly moly that thing is going insane! Those cloudtops!

[aspen]

Holly moly that thing is going insane! Those cloudtops!

Not well organized though. The core is absolute garbage due to shear, which should be lessening throughout the day and allow that incredible convection to build a good structure.

[Hayabusa]

06Z

[1900hurricane]

Convection is now starting to line up better with the low level center and wrap around it. It's not to the point where it can take off yet, but organization is definitely much improved and still improving.

[mrbagyo]

It's currently at CCC pattern which should transform into CDO by tomorrow. We can see the rotating motion on the cloud tops suggesting that the structure is indeed starting to align

[Iceresistance]

It's currently at CCC pattern which should transform into CDO by tomorrow. We can see the rotating motion on the cloud tops suggesting that the structure is indeed starting to align

https://i.imgur.com/Rck1r5L.gif
https://i.imgur.com/COhUl7R.gif

This is very explosive convection & it's definitely starting to spin on the tops . . .

[Hayabusa]

EPS

[1900hurricane]

Mid-level center was still a little downshear of the low level center as of a few hours ago.

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 151320 COR

A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE)

B. 15/0850Z

C. 8.95N

D. 135.70E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


YOUNG

TXPQ29 KNES 151200
TCSWNP

A. 02W (SURIGAE)

B. 15/1130Z

C. 8.9N

D. 135.8E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA.6.5/10 WHITE BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET IS
EQUAL TO 4.0 AND PT IS EQUAL TO 3.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

15/0718Z 8.4N 135.8E SSMIS


...TUGGLE

[InfernoFlameCat]

Holly moly that thing is going insane! Those cloudtops!

Not well organized though. The core is absolute garbage due to shear, which should be lessening throughout the day and allow that incredible convection to build a good structure.

True but as you can see the shear is subsiding with an upper level eye feature apparent on IR imagery along with a large soon to be CDO. SSTs of 30+ C as well with abundant moisture is leading to an RI phase. Shear isn't even that bad right now with 20knots of shear.