WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

That's a lot of CDG or -80°C cloudtops from HWRF



Yap sounding is showing -87 to -88 @ 100 mb

[aspen]

That's a lot of CDG or -80°C cloudtops from HWRF

[url]https://s4.gifyu.com/images/hwrf_satIR_94W_fh0-126.gif [/url]

Yap sounding is showing -87 to -88 @ 100 mb

That’s a scary look at the end of the HWRF run: a monster system about to explode.

I can’t recall the last time there was this much hype for a WPac system. Maybe Goni came close, but the model runs for this have been something else.

[ElectricStorm]

That's a lot of CDG or -80°C cloudtops from HWRF

[url]https://s4.gifyu.com/images/hwrf_satIR_94W_fh0-126.gif [/url]

Yap sounding is showing -87 to -88 @ 100 mb

That’s a scary look at the end of the HWRF run: a monster system about to explode.

I can’t recall the last time there was this much hype for a WPac system. Maybe Goni came close, but the model runs for this have been something else.

Probably Kammuri, or maybe Amphan

[Subtrop]

WTPQ50 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 07.1N 139.9E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 08.0N 139.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 150000UTC 08.6N 138.9E 130NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 160000UTC 09.4N 137.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 170000UTC 10.6N 134.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 180000UTC 12.7N 132.0E 390NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT

[mrbagyo]

super long loop

[euro6208]

Invest 94W has a very impressive convective mass this morning east
of Yap with cloud top temperatures as cold as -93C. But while the
center of the cloud mass is near 9.3N 140.4E, the surface circulation
is centered about 175 miles south, close to 6.8N 140.5E, and there
is very little deep convection to be found south of that surface
center. Due to this poor organization, models show very slow
development the next 24-36 hours, followed by faster development
Thursday and Friday in the vicinity of Yap. Once 94W turns more
northwest and north over the weekend, both GFS and ECMWF develop
it into a strong typhoon well west of the Marianas, possibly even
a super typhoon.

So the $64,000 dollar question is where does this thing go?
Additional concerns are how fast does it strengthen, and who gets
how much rain? First we`ll tackle the track issue. In general, the
models "wobble" the system largely in place over the next 24 to 36
hours while it slowly organizes. The Navy model (NAVGEM), which had
previously been lifting the system due north towards southwestern
Guam waters, has now trended farther west. That said, it`s still
the furthest east as it takes the strengthening center over or very
near Ulithi to the east of Yap.

Conversely, the GFS has been trending slower in its development and
is a "middle ground approach" right now as it takes the center over
Yap island before turning to the north once it crosses 10N, roughly
tracking it along the 135E meridian. The European model (ECMWF)
remains the furthest west in its overall track, but has trended
eastward in the short term (24 to 48 hours)...initially tracking it
towards the eastern side of Yap Island, before wobbling west just to
the south of the island, then continuing northwest. This model has
remained the slowest to develop the storm while taking it near the
130E meridian before it turns north. This is a much farther west
track than the previous 24 to 48 hours, but is closer to climatology.
All models then re-curve it to the northeast once it is well north
of the region.

To summarize, overall the models have come into better agreement, but
there remains some disagreements that need to be worked out. Palau
(especially the northern half) will see periods of heavy rainfall.
For Yap Island and western Yap state, this is the region really
under the gun for heavy rainfall and gusty wind (some models show
storm totals between 15 and 20 inches by week`s end, with a few
runs even higher). Please continue to monitor the latest forecast
trends!

[JW-_-]

What the models are thinking for accumulated precipitation for yap over the 8 days. (mm)

[mrbagyo]

https://i.imgur.com/GqqLA1c.gif

What the models are thinking for accumulated precipitation for yap over the 8 days. (mm)

actual reading from Yap atm

[mrbagyo]

This one might be for the record books because I can't find any Aprl/May STY's that formed this low in latitude.

Strongest April TC to form at the current location of 94W was Typhoon Marie of 1976 - it attained its peak intensity of 115 knots while at the same latitude as Manila.

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro 00Z another close approach, the closest approach of all since forecasting a very strong typhoon, also same with UKMET

[Hayabusa]

Tropical Cyclonea
Issued at 2021/04/13 07:05 UTC
Analisys at 04/13 06 UTC
Category TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N7°10′(7.2°)
E139°20′(139.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
Forecast at 04/14 06 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N8°10′(8.2°)
E138°25′(138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)
Forecast at 04/15 06 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N8°55′(8.9°)
E137°30′(137.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 240km(130NM)
Forecast at 04/16 06 UTC
Category STS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N9°30′(9.5°)
E135°35′(135.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 370km(200NM)
Forecast at 04/17 06 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Strong
Center of probability circle N10°55′(10.9°)
E132°5′(132.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)
Storm warning area WIDE600km(330NM)
Forecast at 04/18 06 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Very Strong
Center of probability circle N12°10′(12.2°)
E131°25′(131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 700km(390NM)
Storm warning area WIDE900km(480NM)

[Hayabusa]

Now that's a lot of showing landfalls

[JW-_-]

00Z EC thinking.






Shore hugs and then recurves offshore.

[Hayabusa]

GFS 00Z is its most western track, like it's slowly caving in to the Euro.

[JW-_-]

[mrbagyo]

ECMWF HRES is showing a violent typhoon (JMA's defines a Typhoon as "Violent" when max sustained wind (10 minutes average) is > 105 knots )

[Nancy Smar]

JTWC Invest Area 94W, currently located near 7N138E, remains the
subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA). Latest
guidance maintains the system between Yap and Koror through Thursday
night before pulling out to the west-northwest into the Philippine
Sea. However, based on movement over the past few days, this may not
occur. Based on these points, there remains a very high degree of
uncertainty with this system. The disturbance continues to slowly
strengthen and is producing heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms
over portions of Palau and Yap State, including Koror, Yap proper and
Ngulu. Moderate to heavy showers and gusty winds are expected to
continue through the next couple of days. The total rainfall amounts
possible for Koror, and to a lesser degree for Yap, could increase
the risk of mudslides. Invest 94W will continue to be monitored
closely as it continues to develop. Invest 94W could become a
Tropical Depression as early as midnight tonight.

[mrbagyo]

Is that a CDO forming or am I just dreaming?

[aspen]

Is that a CDO forming or am I just dreaming?
https://i.imgur.com/bbFQArn.gif
https://i.imgur.com/vFAWpS3.gif

It looks like it’s on the cusp of being a TC, if not already there. Do we know when we’ll get the next ASCAT pass?

[mrbagyo]