WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 02W

#141 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:27 am

This already looks like a monster in the making...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 02W

#142 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:32 am

Yeah I mean hardly any shear, supportive temperatures of 30+ Celsius, little to no dry air, and near infinite moisture from the ITCZ. Only thing in its way is it will not be able to get those massive towering thunderheads to push it past a Cat 4. Need warmer water for that.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 02W

#143 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:44 am

GFS Model has this at a 919 mb system. A strong Cat 4 or maybe Cat 5. Interesting to say the least.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 02W

#144 Postby NotoSans » Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:33 pm

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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#145 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:14 pm

TY2102(Surigae)
Issued at 2021/04/13 19:05 UTC
Analisys at 04/13 18 UTC
Category TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N7°50′(7.8°)
E137°30′(137.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
30-kt wind area NW440km(240NM)
SE330km(180NM)
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#146 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:16 pm

Image
TY2102(Surigae)
Issued at 2021/04/13 19:05 UTC
Analisys at 04/13 18 UTC
Category TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N7°50′(7.8°)
E137°30′(137.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
30-kt wind area NW440km(240NM)
SE330km(180NM)
Forecast at 04/14 18 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N8°55′(8.9°)
E137°55′(137.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slowly
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 120km(65NM)
Forecast at 04/15 18 UTC
Category STS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N9°10′(9.2°)
E136°0′(136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 165km(90NM)
Storm warning area WIDE220km(120NM)
Forecast at 04/16 18 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Strong
Center of probability circle N10°5′(10.1°)
E133°20′(133.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area WIDE350km(190NM)
Forecast at 04/17 18 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Very Strong
Center of probability circle N12°20′(12.3°)
E130°0′(130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 370km(200NM)
Storm warning area WIDE520km(280NM)
Forecast at 04/18 18 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Very Strong
Center of probability circle N13°55′(13.9°)
E129°0′(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)
Storm warning area WIDE700km(370NM)
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#147 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:43 pm

EPS 12Z
Image
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#148 Postby JW-_- » Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:58 pm

Image
Sun coming up.


12z EC
Image


..........................................................................................................................................................................................
Boms global model
Image
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#149 Postby aspen » Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:41 pm

Today’s 18z GFS is the weakest GFS run in a while, although a 924 mbar peak is anything but weak. That just goes to show how incredibly consistent those sub-920 runs have been.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#150 Postby aspen » Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:18 pm

This one big band wrapping into the center looks like the very beginning stages of an early eyewall. Pretty good for such a young system.
Image
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#151 Postby JW-_- » Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:30 pm

Image



The only thing for certain atm is EC thinks. PI is not out of danger on its current forecast runs atm. Altho the tracks are weighted to the east.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#152 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:39 pm

aspen wrote:This one big band wrapping into the center looks like the very beginning stages of an early eyewall. Pretty good for such a young system.
[img]https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021wp02/amsusr89/2021wp02_amsusr89_202104131847.gif[/ig


The location of the future eye is more apparent on this latest SSMIS pass - Surigae just needs more convection on her eastern sector
Image
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#153 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:44 pm

aspen wrote:Today’s 18z GFS is the weakest GFS run in a while, although a 924 mbar peak is anything but weak. That just goes to show how incredibly consistent those sub-920 runs have been.

This could end up being a big win for the upgraded GFS if Surigae ends up around 920 mb or less. It'll be interesting to see how the models perform during peak season considering how bad they were in 2020... Maybe this is the start
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#154 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:54 pm

mrbagyo wrote:
aspen wrote:This one big band wrapping into the center looks like the very beginning stages of an early eyewall. Pretty good for such a young system.
[url]https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021wp02/amsusr89/2021wp02_amsusr89_202104131847.gif[/ig


The location of the future eye is more apparent on this latest SSMIS pass - Surigae just needs more convection on her eastern sector
[url]https://i.imgur.com/kIFquwI.jpg[url]


Yeah the main convection mass is to its west. It's getting there though.

Image
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#155 Postby JW-_- » Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:10 pm

CBW Taiwan

No. No. 02
International Nomenclature SURIAGE
status of
02 April 14, 2021
the center position in the 8.0 degree north latitude, 137.5 degrees east longitude
over the last direction of movement of the West
over the last 18 kilometers per hour moving
central pressure 1002 hPa
near the center of maximum wind speed of 18 meters per second
moment The maximum wind gust is 25 meters per second. The
wind radius of the category 7 storm is 100 kilometers. The
forecasted
12-hour average moving speed is
north, north and west. It is
predicted that the
center will be at 8.3 degrees north latitude and 137.4 degrees east longitude at 14:00 on April 14. The
central pressure is 998 hPa
The maximum wind speed near the center is 18 meters per second, and the
instantaneous maximum wind gusts are 25 meters per second. The
7th storm wind radius is 100 kilometers,
70% probability, and the radius is 60 kilometers. The
predicted 12-24 hour average moving speed is
North North East slow movement
prediction April 15 At 02 o'clock the
center position is at 8.7 degrees north latitude and 137.5 degrees east longitude.
Central air pressure is 995 hPa. The
maximum wind speed near the center is 20 meters per second. The
instantaneous maximum wind gust is 28 meters per second. The
7th storm wind radius is 100 kilometers
70% probability radius 100 kilometers
prediction 24- The 36-hour average moving speed is
slow moving northwest
It is predicted that at 14:00 on April 15th, the
center position is at 9.0 degrees north latitude and 137.2 degrees east longitude.
Central air pressure is 990 hPa. The
maximum wind speed near the center is 23 meters
per second. The maximum instantaneous wind gust is 30 meters per second. The
wind radius of category 7 storm is 120 kilometers.
70% probability radius 140 kilometers The
predicted 36-48 hour average moving speed is
10 kilometers west per hour.
Predicted at 02 o'clock on April 16 The
center position is 9.2 degrees north latitude and 136.1 degrees east longitude. The
central pressure is 985 hPa. The
maximum wind speed near the center is 25 meters per second
. Gusts of 33 meters per second, category
7 storm wind radius of 150 kilometers,
70% probability, radius of 210 kilometers,
forecasted 48-72 hour average moving speed of
13 kilometers northwest and west.
Forecasted at 02:00 on April 17, the
center position is at 10.0 degrees north latitude and 133.4 east longitude Degrees
Central pressure 970 hPa The
maximum wind speed near the center is 33 meters per second, the
instantaneous maximum wind gusts are 43 meters per second, the
7th storm wind radius is 180 kilometers, the
10th storm wind radius is 60 kilometers, the
70% probability radius is 310 kilometers, and the
72-96 hour average shift is predicted The moving speed is
17 kilometers per hour northwest.
Forecast at 02 o'clock on April 18
In the center position of 12.1 degrees north latitude, east longitude 130.3 degrees
central pressure 950 hPa
near the center of maximum wind speed 40 meters per second,
the maximum instantaneous gust 50 meters per second,
seven storm wind radius of 200 km
ten storm wind radius of 70 km
to 70% chance of radius 370 kilometers The
forecasted 96-120 hour average moving speed is
10 kilometers per hour in the northwest.
Forecasted at 02:00 on April 19, the
center position is 13.8 degrees north latitude and 129.1 degrees east longitude. The
central pressure is 940 hPa. The
maximum wind speed near the center is 45 meters per second
. Gusts of 55 meters per second, Category
7 storm wind radius 230 kilometers,
Category 10 storm wind radius 80 kilometers
70% probability radius 500 kilometers
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#156 Postby euro6208 » Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:22 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 132112

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SURIGAE)

B. 13/2040Z

C. 8.08N

D. 136.93E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .50 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.5 DT. MET YIELDS A 2.0 AND PT YIELDS A 2.5. DBO DT. BROKE
CONSTRAINTS OF +0.5 TNO CHANGE OVER 6 HRS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#157 Postby euro6208 » Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:24 pm

702
WTPQ31 PGUM 132329 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Tropical Depression Surigae (02W) Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP022021
929 AM ChST Wed Apr 14 2021

Corrected typo in the watches-warnings section

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SURIGAE JUST SOUTHWEST OF NGULU...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Ngulu in Yap State.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Ngulu in Yap State.
Tropical storm winds of at least 39 mph are expected later this
morning.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Yap Island in Yap State.
Tropical storm force winds are possible later today through Thursday.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...8.2N 137.1E

About 30 miles west-southwest of Ngulu
About 110 miles southwest of Yap
About 165 miles east of Kayangel
About 190 miles east-northeast of Koror
About 635 miles southwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...NW...315 degrees at 3 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM ChST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Surigae
(02W) was located near Latitude 8.2 degrees North and Longitude 137.1
degrees East. Surigae continues its north to northwest drift near
Ngulu. It is expected to maintain this slow northerly motion into
Thursday morning before turning northwest and gradually increasing in
forward speed later in the day.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Surigae is forecast to
intensify later today, and is expected to become a tropical storm
this afternoon. Further intensification is expected later this week
as Surigae moves farther northwest into the Philippine Sea.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 AM this morning followed by the next scheduled
advisory at 200 PM this afternoon.

$$

Aydlett
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#158 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:24 pm

18Z EC 936 mb
Image
Last edited by Hayabusa on Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#159 Postby aspen » Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:34 pm

The HWRF has been showing Surigae struggling for several days, before finally going nuclear over the weekend. It might be overdoing the eye size like it often does; peak intensity is in the 930s and 920s, just like the GFS and Euro.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#160 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:00 pm

Upgraded to 40 kt, new peak 935 mb
TY2102(Surigae)
Issued at 2021/04/14 00:50 UTC
Analisys at 04/14 00 UTC
Category TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N8°10′(8.2°)
E137°0′(137.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
30-kt wind area NW440km(240NM)
SE330km(180NM)

Forecast at 04/19 00 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Very Strong
Center of probability circle N14°30′(14.5°)
E128°20′(128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)
Storm warning area WIDE700km(375NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically


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