WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

Yeah this thing is getting weaker. ERC has to be starting.

[euro6208]

[kevin]

CI# still steady at 8.0, but the final T# has done down slightly to 7.9.

Current Intensity Analysis


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 APR 2021 Time : 154000 UTC
Lat : 12:27:36 N Lon : 128:42:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.0 / 890.2mb/170.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.9 7.9 7.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +19.9C Cloud Region Temp : -82.1C

[kevin]

[aspen]

Just needs to maintain itself a little longer to get that official T#8.0 upgrade it rightfully deserves.

[Cunxi Huang]

JMA 18Z T8.0/8.0.

24 019111 CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8.0
25 019112 DATA TROPICAL (DT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8.0
26 019113 CLOUD PATTERN TYPE OF THE DT- NUMBER 3
27 019114 MODEL EXPECTED TROPICAL (MET) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.0
28 019115 TREND OF PAST 24-HOUR CHANGE (+: DEVELOPED, -: WEAKENED) 1.5
29 019116 PATTERN TROPICAL (PT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5
30 019117 CLOUD PICTURE TYPE OF THE PT- NUMBER 1
31 019118 FINAL TROPICAL (T) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8.0

[Meow]

CI: 8.0 | DT: 8.0 | MET: 7.0 | PT: 7.5 | FT: 8.0

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1383482937383940098

[TorSkk]

Did Goni get a CI of 8 from JMA?

[TyphoonNara]

Did Goni get a CI of 8 from JMA?

Yes it did.

[Meow]

Did Goni get a CI of 8 from JMA?

Precisely, CI8.0 DT8.0 MET8.0 PT7.5 FT8.0 at 18Z on 31 Oct 2020.

[Meow]

ERC is ongoing.

[InfernoFlameCat]

WHAT HAPPENED!!!

[MarioProtVI]

06z was revised to 140 kt, which I think is still too low regarding how it was looking at that time. Probably would go 150 kt and then 160-165 kt at 12z when it really looked it’s best.

[TorSkk]

Officially 895 hPa

[Meow]

Officially 895 hPa

The first below 900hPa from JMA since 2016.

<Analysis at 03 JST, 2021/04/18>
Intensity/Category Violent Typhoon
Center Position 12.6N 128.4E
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h (11kt)
Central pressure 895hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60m/s (120kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s (170kt)
≥ 50-kt wind area E 280km (150NM) W 220km (120NM)
≥ 30-kt wind area ALL 390km (210NM)

[TorSkk]

Officially 895 hPa

Strongest TC worldwide since Meranti

[Cunxi Huang]

Despite the T8.0 vibe from many places (RJTD, KNES, and CIMSS-ADT), I personally strongly doubt it has ever reached actual T8.0/170kt. One reason would be that Surigae's life-long semi-concentric/concentric eyewall structure that can seriously affect its intensity. The other would be that Surigae has never reached a T8.0 on a traditional standardized Dvorak scale. Moreover, SATCON and AMSU tend to exaggerate the intensity if the storm has concentric eyewall structure.

[TorSkk]

High OHC worked its magic

[Meow]

Despite the T8.0 vibe from many places (RJTD, KNES, and CIMSS-ADT), I personally strongly doubt it has ever reached actual T8.0/170kt. One reason would be that Surigae's life-long semi-concentric/concentric eyewall structure that can seriously affect its intensity. The other would be that Surigae has never reached a T8.0 on a traditional standardized Dvorak scale. Moreover, SATCON and AMSU tend to exaggerate the intensity if the storm has concentric eyewall structure.

That’s how JMA didn’t analyse it fully 8.0 and estimated 120 knots, just like how Goni was estimated.