WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical
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- Kingarabian
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
00z Euro now develops it... Crazy.
The GFS was on to something the whole time it appears...
The GFS was on to something the whole time it appears...
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- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
EC members by April 18, 2021 1800z
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
- Kingarabian
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
Peak EC pressure is actually 929 mb
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
The recent Euro run looks it is trying to cave in to the GFS this time...
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
It appears that the reason why these runs have gotten so strong is that the forming cyclone gets kind stuck in its broad precursor disturbance, so instead of quickly tracking right into the Philippines, it’s given way more time to get its act together and intensify.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
GFS still uncomfortably close to the Marianas passing west of us while EURO tracks further west. I wonder which model will cave in.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N
144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 100923Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CYCLING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. A PARTIAL 101108Z ASCAT-A PASS DEPICTS 15-20
KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLC ALONG WITH A STRONG
(20-25 KTS) WESTERLY WIND BURST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. IN
ADDITION, A 101135Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED, BUT WEAK,
LLC WHICH PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE ANALYSIS POSITION. INVEST
94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST
94W WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 100923Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CYCLING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. A PARTIAL 101108Z ASCAT-A PASS DEPICTS 15-20
KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLC ALONG WITH A STRONG
(20-25 KTS) WESTERLY WIND BURST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. IN
ADDITION, A 101135Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED, BUT WEAK,
LLC WHICH PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE ANALYSIS POSITION. INVEST
94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST
94W WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
EPS still on the western side...
GEFS
GEFS
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
Caving in to GFS
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1380819335317348360
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1380958833871257601
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1380958833871257601
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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- Kingarabian
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
Hayabusa wrote:Caving in to GFS
[url]https://i.imgur.com/27aeg3C.png[url]
907mb on the hires Euro.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
Kingarabian wrote:Hayabusa wrote:Caving in to GFS
[url]https://i.imgur.com/27aeg3C.png[url]
907mb on the hires Euro.
Easily one of the strongest runs since Hagibis, Kammuri, and I think Haishen too. IIRC, the models were very aggressive with Haishen.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
Kingarabian wrote:Hayabusa wrote:Caving in to GFS
[url]https://i.imgur.com/27aeg3C.png[url]
907mb on the hires Euro.
From the dissemination data that I get it's 905 mb
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- Kingarabian
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
Hayabusa wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Hayabusa wrote:Caving in to GFS
[url]https://i.imgur.com/27aeg3C.png[url]
907mb on the hires Euro.
From the dissemination data that I get it's 905 mb
[url]https://i.imgur.com/BFdY1s9.png[url]
[url]https://i.imgur.com/eyK8i0e.png[url]
Sheesh! That's incredible!
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
Any ASCAT pass?
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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- Kingarabian
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
94W is slowly coming together. A rather large disturbance:
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
Always concerning to see the Euro produce monster runs... I hope this thing stays OTS as it looks to become quite strong. Not sure what the strongest April typhoon on record is, but whatever it is, this one might challenge it if these model runs verify.
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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