WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:20 am

Finally here.
94W.INVEST

94W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.6N.146E

Image
Last edited by Hayabusa on Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:22 pm, edited 8 times in total.
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15424
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#2 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:59 am

Alrighties let's see what it got.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:29 am

Next name is Surigae it will be the first time to be used replacing Mujigae. Surigae means a kind of eagles.
Image
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:40 am

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:43 am

The models do agree that whatever develops out of this will take days.

EURO after it crosses the Philippines and GFS in about 3-4 days.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:59 am

I'd favor the GFS on this one. With the enhanced phrase of the MJO about to arrive from the South China Sea together with the existing divergent flow afloat, it will likely develop further.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8029
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#7 Postby aspen » Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:47 pm

Holy $&@%

888 mbar
Image

That’s the strongest GFS run in YEARS, even stronger than any run for Hagibis.
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8887
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#8 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:31 pm

aspen wrote:Holy ****

888 mbar
https://i.imgur.com/iMYL9vL.png

That’s the strongest GFS run in YEARS, even stronger than any run for Hagibis.



OMG THAT IS LOW AS GILBERT IN 1988! :shocked!:
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15424
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#9 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:57 pm

12z Euro and 12z GFS seem to generally agree on intensity within the next 72 hours. It's after that time frame when the differences become significant.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4493
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#10 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:41 pm

aspen wrote:Holy $&@%

888 mbar
https://i.imgur.com/iMYL9vL.png

That’s the strongest GFS run in YEARS, even stronger than any run for Hagibis.

Welp looks like this is the first Model Hall of Fame Fantasy run for the upgraded GFS :lol:
1 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15424
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#11 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:55 pm

18z GFS rolling soon. Let's see if it matches that 888mb drop.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#12 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:06 pm

aspen wrote:Holy $&@%

888 mbar
https://i.imgur.com/iMYL9vL.png

That’s the strongest GFS run in YEARS, even stronger than any run for Hagibis.


Wow! Did the GFS version upgrade go back to ol crazy GFS intensities? :double:
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8029
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#13 Postby aspen » Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:55 pm

Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS rolling soon. Let's see if it matches that 888mb drop.

It did not, but 922 mbar is not weak by any standards. It’s slower to intensify and stalls for longer as compared to some of the previous runs, and there’s a potentially name-worthy system within 96-120 hours.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

JW-_-
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 281
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:46 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#14 Postby JW-_- » Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:16 pm

Image
9th 12z
Last edited by JW-_- on Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:49 pm

The near term forecast remains mostly unchanged, as the atmosphere
should remain stable through Sunday. By Sunday night a weak
disturbance is expected to move in from the south. Because of that
the forecast was updated for a chance of showers Sunday night and
Monday.

Tuesday is where the forecast models diverge sharply. The GFS still
expects a strong tropical system to develop rapidly and move to the
west of the Marianas. While this scenario cannot be ignored, it is
unlikely. Instead, the forecast follows the more realistic Euro
solution. The Euro also expects some development, just slower and
has a weak system developing. Additionally, impacts to the Marianas
would be minimal, since the system would stay well south of the
Marianas. Still, sky cover was increased along with PoPs starting
Wednesday, with higher chances for showers at Guam than the CNMI.
Overall, this remains a tricky forecast until the system begins to
develop. Forecast confidence past Monday remains low.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15424
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#16 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:43 pm

00z CMC past 5 days is significantly stronger:
Image

00z GFS a bit stronger than the 18z GFS down to 906mb.

00z CMC peak:
Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#17 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:26 am

Image
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

JW-_-
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 281
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:46 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#18 Postby JW-_- » Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:49 am

EC 00z showing interest.


Image
Last edited by JW-_- on Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#19 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:54 am

ECMWF IFS hi res is bullish.
Image
Last edited by mrbagyo on Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

JW-_-
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 281
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:46 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#20 Postby JW-_- » Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:00 am

mrbagyo wrote:ECMWF IFS hi res suddenly went bullish. oh my goodness
https://i.imgur.com/44DZ2hs.png



Image
hi-res
1 likes   


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests