WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro now develops it... Crazy.



The GFS was on to something the whole time it appears...

[mrbagyo]

EC members by April 18, 2021 1800z

[Kingarabian]

Very strong EPS members on this run:

[Hayabusa]

Peak EC pressure is actually 929 mb

[Hayabusa]

The recent Euro run looks it is trying to cave in to the GFS this time...

[aspen]

It appears that the reason why these runs have gotten so strong is that the forming cyclone gets kind stuck in its broad precursor disturbance, so instead of quickly tracking right into the Philippines, it’s given way more time to get its act together and intensify.

[euro6208]

GFS still uncomfortably close to the Marianas passing west of us while EURO tracks further west. I wonder which model will cave in.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N
144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 100923Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CYCLING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. A PARTIAL 101108Z ASCAT-A PASS DEPICTS 15-20
KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLC ALONG WITH A STRONG
(20-25 KTS) WESTERLY WIND BURST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. IN
ADDITION, A 101135Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED, BUT WEAK,
LLC WHICH PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE ANALYSIS POSITION. INVEST
94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST
94W WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

[Hayabusa]

EPS still on the western side...

GEFS

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

Caving in to GFS

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1380819335317348360




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1380958833871257601

[Kingarabian]

Caving in to GFS
[url]https://i.imgur.com/27aeg3C.png[url]

907mb on the hires Euro.

[aspen]

Caving in to GFS
[url]https://i.imgur.com/27aeg3C.png[url]

907mb on the hires Euro.

Easily one of the strongest runs since Hagibis, Kammuri, and I think Haishen too. IIRC, the models were very aggressive with Haishen.

[Hayabusa]

Caving in to GFS
[url]https://i.imgur.com/27aeg3C.png[url]

907mb on the hires Euro.

From the dissemination data that I get it's 905 mb

[Kingarabian]

Caving in to GFS
[url]https://i.imgur.com/27aeg3C.png[url]

907mb on the hires Euro.

From the dissemination data that I get it's 905 mb
[url]https://i.imgur.com/BFdY1s9.png[url]
[url]https://i.imgur.com/eyK8i0e.png[url]

Sheesh! That's incredible!

[JW-_-]

12z was thinking also a solid super typhoon

[cycloneye]

Any ASCAT pass?

[Kingarabian]

94W is slowly coming together. A rather large disturbance:

[ElectricStorm]

Always concerning to see the Euro produce monster runs... I hope this thing stays OTS as it looks to become quite strong. Not sure what the strongest April typhoon on record is, but whatever it is, this one might challenge it if these model runs verify.