WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

12z Euro peaks at 920 mbs.

[cycloneye]

Still at dvorak 1.0.

[Hayabusa]

EPS still show lots of landfall members but if I go with historical tracks, most typhoons that peaked (at least cat 4) in April went OTS.

[mrbagyo]

HWRF is up

[aspen]

HWRF is up

https://i.imgur.com/xKomhXh.png

Its runs in a few days are gonna be fun, once the time of peak intensity moves into its 126 hr range. I’m gonna guess it’ll have at least one sub-900 run before it truly bombs out.

[Kingarabian]

HWRF is up

https://i.imgur.com/xKomhXh.png

Finally. Wonder why it took so long compared to the EPAC and ATL systems.

[mrbagyo]

18Z
94W INVEST 210411 1800 5.7N 141.6E WPAC 20 1005

[1900hurricane]

I'm intrigued to see guidance all trending towards such intense solutions. I was wondering if the GFS in particular was suffering from convective feedback issues, which it probably was to an extent, but the uptick in other guidance does raise an eyebrow. All in all, even once something develops, I think there's a good chance it might take its time organizing and fully establishing itself. Convection might be south-weighted for a few days in accordance with the strongest convergence from the westerly wind burst. Might be a typhoon by day five, but we'll see were we are by then. If it's properly established by that point, it's not impossible that we could see some early season fireworks shortly afterwards.

[euro6208]

Looks like shear is currently affecting and slowing its organization.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1381420203918114817

[mrbagyo]

94W INVEST 210412 0000 5.8N 141.1E WPAC 20 1005

[aspen]

Anyone have the high res version of the latest Euro run?

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

Anyone have the high res version of the latest Euro run?

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

NAVGEM is also bullish

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS shifts quite a bit back east and with a 909mb peak:


In relation to the system's depicted outflow, look how strong those 850mb winds are so close to the equator. Is this normal for low latitude WPAC Typhoons, or just some weird GFS modeling?

[Kingarabian]

Latest from the AMSR2:

[euro6208]

Ouch. A strong cat 4, low end Cat 5 passing extremely close to Yap? GFS says so.

[euro6208]

913
WWPQ82 PGUM 110802
SPSPQ2

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
602 PM ChST Sun Apr 11 2021

PMZ161-171-120900-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
602 PM ChST Sun Apr 11 2021

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF KOROR AND YAP...

A broad and disorganized tropical disturbance is centered southeast
of Yap near 5N143E this evening. Development and movement with this
disturbance are expected to be slow over the next several days.
Convergent winds north and west of the disturbance center have
triggered off-and-on showers and a few thunderstorms near Yap. This
trend will continue and spread to Koror by Monday. Scattered heavy
showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist near Woleai and
Satawal through Tuesday night.

As the disturbance gradually tracks west-northwestward Tuesday
through Thursday, heavier showers and stronger thunderstorms near the
center of the disturbance will spread west-northwestward over Yap
and nearby islands, and also Koror and Sonsorol. Significant rainfall
and gusty winds are possible for these locations. Marine conditions
might become hazardous for small craft. WFO Guam will continue to
monitor this disturbance and issue updated information as needed.

Residents across the Republic of Palau and Yap State need to monitor
this developing situation closely and stay up to date with the latest
information from your local weather service offices. Listen to
instructions from your emergency management officials. The latest
local forecast can be found under WMO Header FZPQ52 PGUM and also on
the WFO Guam website: www.weather.gov/gum/MarineForecasts.

$$

Chan