WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[JW-_-]

https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#5/ ... val=middle

[mrbagyo]

00z ECMWF Simulated IR

[Hayabusa]

HWRF closing in...

[Hayabusa]

ECMWF 06Z intensifies it to 940 mb at the end of the run

[Hayabusa]

TXPQ29 KNES 131225
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 13/1130Z

C. 8.0N

D. 137.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 5.5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE AND ARE EQUAL
TO 2.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPING TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED
ON MET DUE TO BANDING FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE

TPPN10 PGTW 131201

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (SW OF GUAM)

B. 13/1140Z

C. 7.95N

D. 137.51E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RHOADES

[Hayabusa]

Upgraded to 02W

[mrbagyo]

02W TWO 210413 1200 7.9N 137.3E WPAC 25 1004

[euro6208]

TD??? That is a strengthening Tropical Storm. Curved band says it all..

[aspen]

TD??? That is a strengthening Tropical Storm. Curved band says it all..

https://i.imgur.com/6cvSftQ.gif

https://i.imgur.com/hKk42Nz.gif

If it keeps up, it could become an organized TS well before most of the models shows its RI phase starting.

[JW-_-]

No doubt its iintensifying.

[mrbagyo]

Call me crazy but I think it's on RI phase now.
The CDO, the notorious western curved band and the terrific dual channel outflow are so obvious now. It also appears more compact than what the models where projecting

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Can't wait for the meme saying of "tropical depression with an eye and eyewall" to actually become reality, it seems

On a more serious note, 02W at least appears to be looking quite good structurally, with a well-defined CDO and curved outflow/inflow bands. That tight core can allow it to ramp up faster than the models may be projecting, which could push it further east than may be anticipated. For the sake of avoiding a devastating Philippine landfall or harrowingly close call, that'd probably be a welcome turn of events.

[Hayabusa]

First warning

[Iceresistance]

Any latest Microwave passes over TD 2W?

[aspen]

Any latest Microwave passes over TD 2W?

This site has microwave data, but for some reason it isn’t working.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... eason=2021

[Meow]

I would recommend using JMA’s multilingual sub-site designed for foreigners in Japan, if you hate the new responsive official website.

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/index.html?lang=en

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT keeps missing 94W/TD 2W!

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEVELOPED AS THE MAIN FEEDER BAND,
STRETCHED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES, SIGNIFICANTLY CONSOLIDATED
AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A MORE COMPACT AND DEEP CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY OF 25KTS ARE
EXTRAPOLATED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE FROM A 130907Z HY-2 SCATTEROMETER
BULLSEYE PASS AND SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5/25KTS
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
INCLUDING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS, LOW (05-
10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW REFLECTION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM.
B. TD 02W WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR MAY EVEN BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHWEST BUILDS AND COMPETES FOR STEERING. AFTERWARD, A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM CHINA WILL BREAK THE RIDGE. THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TD 02W
NORTHWESTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE
STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 70KTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO 155NM BY TAU 72 WITH
ECMF ON THE LEFT- AND AVNO ON THE RIGHT-MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL STORM MOTION SECONDARY
TO THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 02W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
BREAK IN THE RIDGE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SAME STR. A
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY TAU 120, TD 02W
WILL SURGE TO 115KTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER. NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD OUT
EVEN MORE TO OVER 480NM BY TAU 120, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[InfernoFlameCat]

Finally something worth looking at. Amazing how far out the models spotted this.