WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#161 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:03 pm

Now a TS
02W SURIGAE 210414 0000 8.5N 137.7E WPAC 35 998
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#162 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:19 pm

18Z EPS still showing a considerable amount of landfalls...
Image
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

JW-_-
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 281
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:46 pm

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#163 Postby JW-_- » Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:27 pm

JMA went much in line with CBW when they upgraded to a mid-range TS. Likey become a bonafide Typhoon during the
next overnight cycle.When the atmosphere starts cooling again.
1 likes   

JW-_-
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 281
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:46 pm

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#164 Postby JW-_- » Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:15 pm

That icon 18z run looks like a really big system in scale.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#165 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:44 pm

LLC is totally exposed


Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#166 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:08 pm

Image

Obs from Yap
Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#167 Postby euro6208 » Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:45 pm

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Yap Island and Ngulu
in Yap State. Damaging winds of at least 39 mph are expected this
afternoon.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Koror and Kayangel in
the Republic of Palau. Damaging winds are possible within 24
to 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...8.6N 137.7E

About 25 miles north-northeast of Ngulu
About 65 miles south-southwest of Yap
About 205 miles east of Kayangel
About 235 miles east-northeast of Koror
About 585 miles southwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...340 degrees at 3 mph
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#168 Postby euro6208 » Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:27 am

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#169 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:32 am

0z GFS bottoms out at 922mb. The remarkable consistency continues...
HWRF has it at 924mb at the end of the run.
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#170 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:28 am

Euro 00Z closest approach yet... :double:
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#171 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:43 am

Hayabusa wrote:Euro 00Z closest approach yet... :double:


Almost Nida 2004-like
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#172 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:10 am

Closest approach to Catanduanes
Image
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#173 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:43 am

EPS 00Z
Image
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

JW-_-
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 281
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:46 pm

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#174 Postby JW-_- » Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:07 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#175 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:58 am

ECMWF 00z run Simulated IR
Image
2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

JW-_-
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 281
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:46 pm

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#176 Postby JW-_- » Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:44 am

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 140914
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Surigae (02W) Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP022021
714 PM ChST Wed Apr 14 2021

...TROPICAL STORM SURIGAE MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Yap Island and
Ngulu in Yap State.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Koror and Kayangel
in the Republic of Palau.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...9.0N 137.3E

About 50 miles north-northwest of Ngulu
About 65 miles west-southwest of Yap
About 190 miles east-northeast of Kayangel
About 230 miles east-northeast of Koror
About 590 miles west-southwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...northwest...325 degrees at 6 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Surigae
was located near Latitude 9.0 degrees North and Longitude
137.3 degrees East. Surigae is moving northwest at 6 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with
little change in forward speed over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 40 mph. Surigae is forecast to
continue to intensify and may become a typhoon late Thursday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles to the northeast and 85 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 AM ChST early Thursday morning.

$$

Edson/Pavliukoit



Image
0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#177 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:59 am

Surigae still looks lopsided on microwave but a convective flare up is expected this evening which should help cover up the naked part of its core.
Image
Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#178 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:06 am

IIRC Levi Cowan (Tropical Tidbits) already works at JTWC, can't wait to read his warning/ prognostics.

WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH THE MAIN
CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFFSET WESTWARD FROM A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING
LOW CLOUD-TRACING IN THE MSI LOOP INTO AN OBSCURED CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 140400Z AMSR2
36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW, RJTD AND THE OBJECTIVE ADT AND
REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST DUAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE
(10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO 85KTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 185NM BY TAU
72 WITH EEMN ON THE LEFT- AND JGSM ON THE RIGHT-MARGIN OF THE
ENVELOPE, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM EASTERN ASIA
WILL BREAK THE STR. THE EASTERN SIDE WILL ASSUME STEERING AND BY TAU
96, WILL DRIVE TD 02W NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BREAK. A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FURTHER
ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DECREASING VWS. BY TAU
120, TS 02W WILL SURGE TO 120KTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER. NUMERICAL MODELS
SPREAD OUT EVEN MORE TO 300NM BY TAU 120, MAINTAINING FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN



TPPN10 PGTW 140859

A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE)

B. 14/0830Z

C. 8.56N

D. 137.11E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RHOADES
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

JW-_-
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 281
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:46 pm

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#179 Postby JW-_- » Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:11 am

A few hours old now roughly 4. CWB forecast.
SURIGAE (202102)
Analysis
0600UTC 14 April 2021

Center Location 8.5N 137.0E
Movement NW 9km/hr
Minimum Pressure 998 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 20 m/s
Gust 28 m/s
Radius of over 15m/s winds 100km
Forecast
12 hours valid at:

1800UTC 14 April 2021
Center Position 8.8N 136.6E
Vector to 12 HR Position
W 6 km/hr
Minimum Pressure 985 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 25 m/s
Gust 33 m/s
Radius of over 15m/s winds 100km
Radius of 70% probability circle 60km
24 hours valid at:

0600UTC 15 April 2021
Center Position 8.8N 136.2E
Vector to 24 HR Position
W Slowly
Minimum Pressure 980 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 28 m/s
Gust 35 m/s
Radius of over 15m/s winds 120km
Radius of 70% probability circle 100km
36 hours valid at:

1800UTC 15 April 2021
Center Position 9.1N 135.1E
Vector to 36 HR Position
WNW 10 km/hr
Minimum Pressure 975 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 30 m/s
Gust 38 m/s
Radius of over 15m/s winds 150km
Radius of over 25m/s winds 50km
Radius of 70% probability circle 140km
48 hours valid at:

0600UTC 16 April 2021
Center Position 9.2N 133.9E
Vector to 48 HR Position
W 11 km/hr
Minimum Pressure 970 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 33 m/s
Gust 43 m/s
Radius of over 15m/s winds 180km
Radius of over 25m/s winds 60km
Radius of 70% probability circle 190km
72 hours valid at:

0600UTC 17 April 2021
Center Position 10.9N 130.5E
Vector to 72 HR Position
WNW 17 km/hr
Minimum Pressure 945 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 43 m/s
Gust 53 m/s
Radius of over 15m/s winds 200km
Radius of over 25m/s winds 70km
Radius of 70% probability circle 280km
96 hours valid at:

0600UTC 18 April 2021
Center Position 12.8N 127.6E
Vector to 96 HR Position
WNW 16 km/hr
Minimum Pressure 925 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 51 m/s
Gust 63 m/s
Radius of over 15m/s winds 250km
Radius of over 25m/s winds 80km
Radius of 70% probability circle 420km
120 hours valid at:

0600UTC 19 April 2021
Center Position 14.7N 127.2E
Vector to 120 HR Position
NNW 9 km/hr
Minimum Pressure 925 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 51 m/s
Gust 63 m/s
Radius of over 15m/s winds 250km
Radius of over 25m/s winds 80km
Radius of 70% probability circle 500km



like to see myself what other agencies think. No real preference tho.
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Tropical Storm

#180 Postby aspen » Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:40 am

Today’s 06z HWRF hasn’t fully loaded yet, but so far it’s the strongest run — 921 mbar and ~130 kt.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests