WP, 02, 2021041718, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1284E, 165, 888, ST, 34, NEQ, 190, 145, 170, 195, 1007, 330, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, SURIGAE, D,
WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical
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- Cunxi Huang
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
JTWC 165kt, 888 mb.
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
STILL INTENSIFYING
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
InfernoFlameCat wrote:STILL INTENSIFYING
It’s soon to weaken because of ERC.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Put this one in the hall of fame
02W SURIGAE 210417 1800 12.6N 128.4E WPAC 165 888
02W SURIGAE 210417 1800 12.6N 128.4E WPAC 165 888
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Flashback to that 888mb GFS run...
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Meow wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:STILL INTENSIFYING
It’s soon to weaken because of ERC.
I've seen storms do a EWRC & Not Weaken . . .
Latest prime example is Mangkhut from 2018 . . .
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Weather Dude wrote:Flashback to that 888mb GFS run...
How did that 888 MB GFS Model run Verify? What are the odds of THAT??
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
This time it won't recover as it will have left the high OHC area before the ERC is done. Now clearly looking worse on satellite
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Weather Dude wrote:Flashback to that 888mb GFS run...
Now we have to actually take those fantasy land runs a little more seriously after this lol.
But in all seriousness, this was probably a fluke coincidence that Surigae managed to peak at exactly the same intensity as one long-range GFS run. It won’t mean anything unless another bonkers fantasy land solution verifies.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
aspen wrote:Weather Dude wrote:Flashback to that 888mb GFS run...
Now we have to actually take those fantasy land runs a little more seriously after this lol.
But in all seriousness, this was probably a fluke coincidence that Surigae managed to peak at exactly the same intensity as one long-range GFS run. It won’t mean anything unless another bonkers fantasy land solution verifies.
Yeah either way, hopefully the updated GFS will perform much better than the GFS did last year...
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
aspen wrote:Weather Dude wrote:Flashback to that 888mb GFS run...
Now we have to actually take those fantasy land runs a little more seriously after this lol.
But in all seriousness, this was probably a fluke coincidence that Surigae managed to peak at exactly the same intensity as one long-range GFS run. It won’t mean anything unless another bonkers fantasy land solution verifies.
In terms of model intensity verification, the models did really well. Even if Surigae only peaked at 920-925mb, it still wouldn't be a miss by the models. Model intensity forecasts a week out are always some sort of ball park figure.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
lol how are we looking at an 888mb super typhoon in April.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Weather Dude wrote:aspen wrote:Weather Dude wrote:Flashback to that 888mb GFS run...
Now we have to actually take those fantasy land runs a little more seriously after this lol.
But in all seriousness, this was probably a fluke coincidence that Surigae managed to peak at exactly the same intensity as one long-range GFS run. It won’t mean anything unless another bonkers fantasy land solution verifies.
Yeah either way, hopefully the updated GFS will perform much better than the GFS did last year...
Even though all the models were sub-par last year, the GFS was pretty good late in the season sniffing out all the WCar storms around two weeks before they even formed. Hopefully this upgrade means it’s moderately reliable throughout the season instead of just at the very end and constantly missing development earlier on.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
InfernoFlameCat wrote:STILL INTENSIFYING
It's been on the decline the past few hours in all likelihood due to the ERC. The JTWC is just late as usual.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
aspen wrote:Weather Dude wrote:aspen wrote:Now we have to actually take those fantasy land runs a little more seriously after this lol.
But in all seriousness, this was probably a fluke coincidence that Surigae managed to peak at exactly the same intensity as one long-range GFS run. It won’t mean anything unless another bonkers fantasy land solution verifies.
Yeah either way, hopefully the updated GFS will perform much better than the GFS did last year...
Even though all the models were sub-par last year, the GFS was pretty good late in the season sniffing out all the WCar storms around two weeks before they even formed. Hopefully this upgrade means it’s moderately reliable throughout the season instead of just at the very end and constantly missing development earlier on.
Yeah GFS was really weird last year. It indeed sniffed out all of the late season WCar storms super early, only to drop it once the other models also started showing development. And then it joined the party again days later.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Personal thought: Peak was 160kt at 12Z. That was based on a clear-cut subjective T7.5, SMAP showing 1min max winds of 160kt, and higher ADT values of T8.0.
Microwave estimates have shown a large discrepancy from 135kt (AMSU) to 160kt (SSMIS), but I’d lean towards SSMIS on this one.
I’d lower the intensity to 155KT at 18Z, given the clear ERC trend on microwave.
Microwave estimates have shown a large discrepancy from 135kt (AMSU) to 160kt (SSMIS), but I’d lean towards SSMIS on this one.
I’d lower the intensity to 155KT at 18Z, given the clear ERC trend on microwave.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
This would be like a monster cat 5 in the Atlantic in the middle of June?
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Weather Dude wrote:Put this one in the hall of fame
02W SURIGAE 210417 1800 12.6N 128.4E WPAC 165 888
That's probably pretty close to accurate, but off by several hours.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon
Was upgraded to cat 5 at 6z last night per latest revision
02W SURIGAE 210417 1800 12.6N 128.4E WPAC 165 888
02W SURIGAE 210417 1200 12.0N 129.2E WPAC 155 900
02W SURIGAE 210417 0600 11.3N 130.2E WPAC 140 919
02W SURIGAE 210417 0000 10.7N 131.1E WPAC 120 940
02W SURIGAE 210417 1800 12.6N 128.4E WPAC 165 888
02W SURIGAE 210417 1200 12.0N 129.2E WPAC 155 900
02W SURIGAE 210417 0600 11.3N 130.2E WPAC 140 919
02W SURIGAE 210417 0000 10.7N 131.1E WPAC 120 940
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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