WPAC: CHANTHU - Post-Tropical

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Yellow Evan
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#301 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:36 am

TPPN11 PGTW 101222

A. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU)

B. 10/1200Z

C. 18.72N

D. 122.88E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HEINS


This is not the sort of fix that prompts a lowering of an intensity given there’s only been a small break in the CMG. This move seems devoid of common sense.
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#302 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:23 am

There’s no good justification for going down to 140 kt, below most satellite estimates, in the 15z prognostic reasoning. They don’t even mention how ADT supports 150-155 kt; they just say that other estimates range from T7.0-7.5. It’s a bare-bones discussion with no support for such an awful estimate, and is a good example of how bad the JTWC can get. Imagine if the NHC went with the lowest estimate possible for a strong major near land. Why stay on the lowest possible end instead of going for a blend of intensity estimates?
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#303 Postby underthwx » Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:41 am

I have noticed the track of Kiko is touching the Northern region of the Philippines...is this a trend towards perhaps some possible impacts there?....I have family that live in Mandaluyong...and I appreciate any information on potential impacts in that area...as well as Batanes...where I have friends....thanks for any information...
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#304 Postby NotoSans » Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:47 am

Eye has cooled on EIR. Another ERC may be underway, or upper-level outflow has been disrupted by Invest 96W now to its north.

JMA has it at 19.1N 122.5E at 15Z. Basco is at 20.4N 122E. May need to track NNW for Basco to have bullseye surface observations.
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#305 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:50 am

Can't post the pic on mobile but one of those small islands is about to get slammed by the NW eyewall
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#306 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 10, 2021 11:06 am

Aparri Radar is BACK!
EWRC is underway
Image
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#307 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 10, 2021 11:19 am

underthwx wrote:I have noticed the track of Kiko is touching the Northern region of the Philippines...is this a trend towards perhaps some possible impacts there?....I have family that live in Mandaluyong...and I appreciate any information on potential impacts in that area...as well as Batanes...where I have friends....thanks for any information...

Looks like that Chanthu (Kiko) has missed Mainland Luzon to the North . . .

Image

But, it's heading for the Islands north of Luzon . . .
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#308 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 10, 2021 12:10 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 19.1N 122.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WES
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#309 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Sep 10, 2021 12:27 pm

T numbers very slowly coming down on ADT now (although the eye has warmed a bit, back to 15C after dropping to 12C) and radar suggests another ERC might be about to take place. Chanthu is probably at ~145kts now, and I'm thinking it peaked at 155kts a few hours ago.
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#310 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:03 pm

Well now

19W CHANTHU 210910 1800 19.5N 122.3E WPAC 150 908
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#311 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:04 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Well now

19W CHANTHU 210910 1800 19.5N 122.3E WPAC 150 908


They also revised the previous
19W CHANTHU 210910 1800 19.5N 122.3E WPAC 150 908
19W CHANTHU 210910 1200 18.7N 122.8E WPAC 150 911
19W CHANTHU 210910 0600 17.9N 123.4E WPAC 145 916
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#312 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:19 pm

Chanthu's (Kiko's) eye is shrinking, possibly the start of another EWRC.
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#313 Postby MarioProtVI » Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:32 pm

19W CHANTHU 210910 1800 19.5N 122.3E WPAC 155 902

Overridden again.
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#314 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:34 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:19W CHANTHU 210910 1800 19.5N 122.3E WPAC 155 902

Overridden again.

That’s more like it.
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#315 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:40 pm

Much better now with the 155kt estimate. Only thing I can say is it most likely peaked a few hours ago and is now on the decline due to ERC. But the 155kt/902mb peak looks good for this.
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#316 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 10, 2021 2:58 pm

There we go, a good estimate from the JTWC. Still so odd how they brought it down to 140 kt.
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#317 Postby Highteeld » Fri Sep 10, 2021 3:02 pm

I would expect even more revisions in the future. This storm peaked between 6 and 12 UTC
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#318 Postby sikkar » Fri Sep 10, 2021 5:17 pm

987 mb at Basco.
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#319 Postby sikkar » Fri Sep 10, 2021 5:19 pm

Thank you mrbagyo for posting links yesterday.

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres? ... 11&hora=00
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon

#320 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 10, 2021 6:19 pm

still no 2300z update from Basco
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