WPAC: MINDULLE - Post-Tropical

[underthwx]

rapid intensification phase has probably commenced - it's CDO building time
https://i.imgur.com/fOZqpXA.gif

https://i.imgur.com/mhn7qLI.gif

This cyclone is a force to be reckoned with....on its way to being a powerful cyclone...

[aspen]

An eyewall is forming.

[1900hurricane]

Recent GPM data reveal an organizing structure with a cyan ring.

[underthwx]

Recent GPM data reveal an organizing structure with a cyan ring.

https://i.imgur.com/pMAInnU.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/Bd7b42d.jpg

Cyan ring?....

[Iceresistance]

Recent GPM data reveal an organizing structure with a cyan ring.

https://i.imgur.com/pMAInnU.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/Bd7b42d.jpg

Cyan ring?....

Complete Eyewall

[1900hurricane]

Recent GPM data reveal an organizing structure with a cyan ring.

https://i.imgur.com/pMAInnU.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/Bd7b42d.jpg

Cyan ring?....

On the second image there, 37 GHz Color, notice how there is an unbroken light blue ring around an eye-looking feature. Research has shown that in the presence of favorable conditions, the appearance of a cyan ring like this in developing storms is frequently a harbinger of rapid intensification.

[underthwx]

Recent GPM data reveal an organizing structure with a cyan ring.

https://i.imgur.com/pMAInnU.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/Bd7b42d.jpg

Cyan ring?....

On the second image there, 37 GHz Color, notice how there is an unbroken light blue ring around an eye-looking feature. Research has shown that in the presence of favorable conditions, the appearance of a cyan ring like this in developing storms is frequently a harbinger of rapid intensification.

Thankyou!.....that to me is interesting.....never heard of this before....

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ23 KNES 241815
TCSWNP
CCA

A. 20W (MINDULLE)

B. 24/1730Z

C. 16.7N

D. 138.7E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.0/5.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR ADDITIONAL REMARKS. SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN
BLACK RESULTING IN AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN DT OF 5.0. THE 1605Z 37
GHZ GMI MW PASS REVEALS AN EYE LIKE FEATURE AT THE LOW LEVELS WHICH
BUILDS CONFIDENCE IN THE LLCC POSITION LOCATION. ADDITIONALLY, THE 89
GHZ MW IMAGERY REVEALS A ROBUST BANDING STRUCTURE THAT FEEDS INTO THE
SYSTEM LLCC AND IS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN QUADRANT INDICATING
A TIGHTENING AND STRENGTHENING SYSTEM. FURTHERMORE, THE EIR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DISPLAYS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF WHITE AND PERSISTENT APPEARANCE
OF CMG & CDG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE SYSTEM'S CORE. THE 24 HR
TREND IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. MET IS 4.5 AND PT IS 5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/1605Z 16.7N 138.8E GMI


...PATEL

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN10 PGTW 242109

A. TROPICAL STORM 20W (MINDULLE)

B. 24/2020Z

C. 16.56N

D. 138.29E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. SUBTRACTED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG TO
YIELD A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 4.5. DBO DT. BROKE
CONSTRAINTS (+1.0 TNO CHANGE OVER 6HRS) DUE TO SYSTEM'S
DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/1604Z 16.38N 138.87E ATMS
24/1605Z 16.50N 138.77E GPMI
24/1645Z 16.60N 138.65E AMS2
24/1655Z 16.48N 138.52E ATMS


BERMEA

Yet the JTWC went 60 knots…

[1900hurricane]

The bolded section is the most uncharacteristic thing I've ever seen JTWC write.

WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 16.7N 138.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 837 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. FOR A FEW FRAMES, AN EYE APPEARED TO BE REVEALING ITSELF BUT
OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME COVERED IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOOPS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM AND A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN FROM EQUATORIAL LATITUDES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 211645Z AMSR2 COLOR COMPOSITE IS SHOWING
WHAT MAY BE THE BEGINNINGS OF CYAN RING DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE NOT CONTIGUOUS AROUND THE ENTIRE LLCC. THERE
IS NOT A COMPLETE EYEWALL YET. THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT STILL
LACKS COMPLETE COVERAGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT
IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ASSESSMENT AND AN ADT RAW ADJUSTED
OUTPUT OF 59KTS. SATCON ALSO SHOWS 57KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM A 241222Z ASCAT PASS.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED BY A 5940M 500MB HEIGHT CENTER
NEAR 25N 177E.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 57 KTS AT 241654Z
CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 241740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE MINDULLE IS CROSSING THE
TYPHOON STRENGTH THRESHOLD AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPEDIMENTS TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM
THROUGH VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH THE 25TH LATITUDE, AND FURTHER POLEWARD, WHILE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT FALLS, OTHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ONLY MARGINALLY.
THE BIGGEST IMPEDIMENT TO 21W NOT REACHING SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH
MIGHT BE SLOW MOVEMENT AS IT PAUSES WHILE MAKING THE BEND AROUND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, AND AS THAT PORTION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA WHILE THE
BONIN HIGH REMAINS STEADY, THE ONLY PATH FOR 2OW IS A STEADY BEND
TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 30TH LATITUDE. CONFIDENCE AND
TRACK GUIDANCE IS NARROWING IN ON A GRACEFUL RECURATURE SCENARIO
WHERE MINDULLE TAKES A GENTLEMENLY TRACK--AT LEAST FOR LAND
LUBBERS--OVER OPEN OCEAN AND STANDS WELL OFF FROM NOT ONLY OKINAWA,
BUT ALSO FROM IWO TO AND THE KANTO PLAIN. HOWEVER, THE DEEP INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM AND AUTUMNAL HIGH MIGRATING OVER NORTHERN JAPAN WILL
INTERACT TO DRIVE A BROAD SWATH OF GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLIES OFF-
SHORE OF HONSHU.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TIGHTENED UP OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS AND VARIABILITY HAS BECOME A MATTER OF ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS.
ALL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRACEFULL RECURVATURE INTO THE
MID-LATITUDES AND A LIFE SPAN WELL BEYOND TAU 120. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 WITH A
SPREAD OF ONLY 25KTS AT PEAK TIMES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HWRF, WHICH
KEEPS THE STORM BELOW 100KTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE
TRACK FORECAST LOCKS ONTO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS THE ISSUE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
AS THE STORM ROUNDS THE RIDGE. THE SLOWER THE MOVEMENT, THE MORE
THE UPWELLING IT GENEERATES WILL IMPEDE THE THE STORM FROM REACHING
ITS FULL POTENTIAL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT
IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ASSESSMENT AND AN ADT RAW ADJUSTED
OUTPUT OF 59KTS. SATCON ALSO SHOWS 57KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM A 241222Z ASCAT PASS.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED BY A 5940M 500MB HEIGHT CENTER
NEAR 25N 177E.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 57 KTS AT 241654Z
CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 241740Z

Now doesn’t seem like the best time to hug ADT and SATCON… ADT is too low in the pre-eye clearing stage and SATCON can easily become representative of its past rather than current intensity. Also have no clue how one got a T3.5 with this.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1441513068572422144

[mrbagyo]

Nascent eye feature has started to appear on visible band

[StormTracker89]

The only factor that may serve to slow the rate of intensification down the road is the OHC. While the system is in good position for the next 24 hours or so, where it will likely RI, the current forecast track takes the system over relatively lower OHC pools, as it also slows down, leading to increased upwelling. HWRF also shows the same effect, with upwelling of much cooler waters. However the HWRF doesn't show much of an impact to intensity I will say. The ultimate impact on intensity will come down to how fast the system tracks over these lower OHC waters.

[mrbagyo]

The only factor that may serve to slow the rate of intensification down the road is the OHC. While the system is in good position for the next 24 hours or so, where it will likely RI, the current forecast track takes the system over relatively lower OHC pools, as it also slows down, leading to increased upwelling. HWRF also shows the same effect, with upwelling of much cooler waters. However the HWRF doesn't show much of an impact to intensity I will say. The ultimate impact on intensity will come down to how fast the system tracks over these lower OHC waters.
http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/images/ohc_npQG3_latest_npac.zoomWP.gif

Luzon will be on deep sh*t if a potent west runner forms later this year. Damn those insane OHC.

With regards to Mindulle, I think it will reach its peak intensity anywhere South of 22°N

[aspen]

Nascent eye feature has started to appear on visible band

https://i.imgur.com/072A7x6.gif

That’s the best 60 kt TS I’ve ever seen

[sikkar]

May easily surpass CHANTHU, thankfully won't impact land directly.

[Yellow Evan]

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

20W MINDULLE 210925 0000 16.9N 138.2E WPAC 70 980