WPAC: MINDULLE - Post-Tropical

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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#141 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 26, 2021 4:54 am

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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#142 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:47 am

SMAP got (an almost) 09Z fix, and it's 134 knots in 1 min
WP, 20, 202109260858, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1880N, 13670E, , 1, 125, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 115, 171, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 20, 202109260858, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1880N, 13670E, , 1, 125, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 70, 83, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 20, 202109260858, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1880N, 13670E, , 1, 125, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 45, 56, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
.
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#143 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:35 am

western side of the inner eyewall has opened up
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#144 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:54 am

12Z AMSU 145 knots :lol:
CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
SUPER TYPHOON 20W
Sunday 26sep21 Time: 1229 UTC
Latitude: 19.01 Longitude: 136.70
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 25 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 907 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 145 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -6.6 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 5.01
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 4.60
RMW: 14 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1005
Satellite: NOAA-90
ATCF data for Month: 09 Day: 26 Time (UTC): 1200

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#145 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:40 am

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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#146 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:38 am

Wow, the combo of an EWRC and upwelling has really knocked Mindulle down several pegs. 145 kt/908mb is still a very impressive peak, but it did seem like it could’ve ended up as another 150+ kt system based on how quickly it was getting its act together last night.
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#147 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Sep 26, 2021 5:15 pm

Lol :lol: . From JTWC's 21Z prognostic reasoning.

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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#148 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 26, 2021 6:34 pm

This is probably irrecoverable because upwelling broadens the windfield big time, especially an apparent ERC ongoing. See Trami and Blanca as proof.
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#149 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:03 pm

Image

Never seen a storm upwell this much before.
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#150 Postby sikkar » Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:27 pm

Trying to form a gigantic eye.
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#151 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:44 pm


Guess Mindulle and Sam are now having a competition over who weakens more rapidly.
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#152 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:36 pm

SMAP at 21Z leads 86 knots, 110 knots at 00Z could be too generous.
WP, 20, 202109262106, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1960N, 13670E, , 1, 80, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 217, 204, 146, 172, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 20, 202109262106, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1960N, 13670E, , 1, 80, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 123, 89, 92, 104, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 20, 202109262106, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1960N, 13670E, , 1, 80, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 57, 62, 0, 70, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#153 Postby zhukm29 » Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:39 pm

Teban54 wrote:

Guess Mindulle and Sam are now having a competition over who weakens more rapidly.


Trying to see who is better at botching an EWRC haha...

Larry truly is disappointed :lol:
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#154 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:54 pm

Teban54 wrote:

Guess Mindulle and Sam are now having a competition over who weakens more rapidly.


Trami of 2018 did the same thing
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#155 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 27, 2021 5:03 am

Teban54 wrote:

Guess Mindulle and Sam are now having a competition over who weakens more rapidly.

Sam will probably fare better. At least it hasn’t upwelled much and has just one eyewall instead of like 3.
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#156 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:39 am

convection has started to cool again.
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#157 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 27, 2021 10:22 am

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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#158 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:01 pm

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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#159 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:25 am

If Mindulle was the size of Sam it could have undergone a smoother EWRC
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Re: WPAC: MINDULLE - Typhoon

#160 Postby StormTracker89 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:37 am

VHTs popping, and a new much small eye rapidly forming. Standby for a sharp boost in the Dvorak estimates.
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