WPAC: NAMTHEUN - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2652
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

WPAC: NAMTHEUN - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:46 pm

The 3rd potential storm.
95W INVEST 211007 1800 14.4N 165.9E WPAC 15 1010

Image
Last edited by Hayabusa on Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:49 pm, edited 4 times in total.
0 likes   
欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2652
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:58 pm

Euro, GFS makes this a TS. ICON is a left outlier tracking it directly towards the Marianas. CMC left outlier too but not towards the Marianas.
0 likes   
欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2652
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 07, 2021 8:16 pm

Already medium
ABPW10 PGTW 080100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080100Z-080600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZOCT2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.5N 166.5E, APPROXIMATELY 289 NM SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND. A 072253
METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
HIGHER WINDS (20 KNOTS) OFFSET TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
0 likes   
欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2652
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 07, 2021 8:17 pm

18Z EPS
Image
0 likes   
欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2652
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 09, 2021 3:30 am

WWJP27 RJTD 090600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 17N 163E WEST 10 KT.

09/00Z
Image
0 likes   
欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2652
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:29 am

GW
Image
Issued at 2021/10/09 13:20 UTC
Analisys at 10/09 12 UTC
Category TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N16°55′(16.9°)
E162°5′(162.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
Forecast at 10/10 12 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N17°5′(17.1°)
E158°50′(158.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)
Forecast at 10/11 12 UTC
Category STS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N18°40′(18.7°)
E154°30′(154.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 240km(130NM)
Storm warning area WIDE290km(155NM)
Forecast at 10/12 12 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Strong
Center of probability circle N20°25′(20.4°)
E150°40′(150.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 370km(200NM)
Storm warning area WIDE440km(240NM)
Forecast at 10/13 12 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Strong
Center of probability circle N21°50′(21.8°)
E148°10′(148.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)
Storm warning area WIDE590km(320NM)
Forecast at 10/14 12 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Strong
Center of probability circle N24°40′(24.7°)
E147°25′(147.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 700km(390NM)
Storm warning area WIDE800km(430NM)
0 likes   
欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2652
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:43 am

Image
0 likes   
欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2652
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#8 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:19 am

Image

WTPN23 PGTW 091400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081521ZOCT21//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081921ZOCT21//
AMPN/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 162.4E TO 18.3N 156.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.6N 162.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 164.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY
310NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 090824Z PARTIAL ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS 15-20 KT
WIND BARBS AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH GREATER THAN 20 KT
WIND BARBS IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY ASSOCIATED WITH
GRADIENT FLOW AND CONVECTION, RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
INTENSIFIES BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101400Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 131.9E. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 133.5E. //
NNNN
0 likes   
欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3559
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#9 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 09, 2021 4:15 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14333
Age: 23
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 09, 2021 6:12 pm

Image

JTWC better classify this.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2652
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 23W

#11 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:23 pm

23W TWENTYTHRE 211010 0000 17.0N 160.3E WPAC 30 1002
0 likes   
欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2652
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: NAMTHEUN - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:42 pm

Image
TY2119(Namtheun)
Issued at 2021/10/10 01:25 UTC
Analisys at 10/10 00 UTC
Category TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N17°0′(17.0°)
E160°20′(160.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
30-kt wind area NE330km(180NM)
SW220km(120NM)
Forecast at 10/11 00 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N18°0′(18.0°)
E157°30′(157.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 80km(42NM)
Forecast at 10/12 00 UTC
Category STS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N19°35′(19.6°)
E154°5′(154.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 165km(90NM)
Storm warning area WIDE210km(115NM)
Forecast at 10/13 00 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Strong
Center of probability circle N22°5′(22.1°)
E153°0′(153.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area WIDE370km(200NM)
Forecast at 10/14 00 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Strong
Center of probability circle N24°0′(24.0°)
E153°10′(153.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 480km(260NM)
Storm warning area WIDE560km(300NM)
Forecast at 10/15 00 UTC
Category STS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N26°30′(26.5°)
E155°50′(155.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 650km(360NM)
Storm warning area WIDE700km(390NM)
0 likes   
欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14333
Age: 23
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NAMTHEUN - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 09, 2021 10:10 pm

Yes because ASCAT supported 30 knots.
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3559
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: WPAC: NAMTHEUN - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 10, 2021 2:07 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 14333
Age: 23
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NAMTHEUN - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:47 pm

This is a 70 knot typhoon most likely. Hopefully the JTWC will notice.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2652
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: NAMTHEUN - Post-Tropical

#16 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:52 pm

Initially it was going to be a typhoon by JMA. I guess it kind of did (Peak intensity JTWC: 65 kt, JMA: 50 kt)
TY2119(Namtheun)
Issued at 2021/10/17 00:50 UTC
Analisys at 10/17 00 UTC
Category LOW
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N34°0′(34.0°)
E167°0′(167.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
0 likes   
欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests