BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

[CrazyC83]

Given all the data, I would put the intensity right now at 150 kt. Not only that the storm is very large in size for the basin. Nightmare situation...

[wxman57]

Yes, it's not a tiny storm. However, JTWC's radii are quite low. I would estimate 34kt winds to be twice their estimate, and 64kt winds maybe 3 times their estimate.


101800Z --- NEAR 15.6N 89.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 89.4E

[cycloneye]

[supercane4867]

CI still raising...

2013OCT10 200000 7.4 910.7 152.0 7.4 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 4.64 -79.76 EYE 16 IR 81.0 15.67 -89.20 COMBO MET7 41.1

No sign of EWRC starting as of the lastest TRMM pass

[galaxy401]

Wow last time I saw this storm it was just a TD. Very impressive but the IMD better get their act together.

[supercane4867]

TXIO24 KNES 102052
TCSNIO

A. 02B (PHAILIN)

B. 10/2030Z

C. 15.7N

D. 89.1E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN CMG FOR AN EYE NO. OF 6.5. THE
EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CMG FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF POSITIVE
0.5 WHICH YIELDS A DT=7.0. MET IS 6.0 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER
24 HOURS AND THE PT IS 6.5. DT WAS CALCULATED EACH HOUR SINCE THE LAST
CLASSIFICATION RESULTING IN A SIX HOUR AVERAGE DT=7.0. THIS ALLOWS THE
RULE LIMITING THE CHANGE IN FT TO 2.0 IN 18 HOURS TO BE BROKEN. FT IS
BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

10/1714Z 15.7N 89.2E TMI


...MCCARTHY

[TCmet]

CI still raising...

2013OCT10 200000 7.4 910.7 152.0 7.4 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 4.64 -79.76 EYE 16 IR 81.0 15.67 -89.20 COMBO MET7 41.1

If that satellite estimate becomes official, Phailin would beat the 1999 cyclone for most intense in Indian Ocean recorded history.

Cyclone Year Pressure
hPa inHg
1 BOB 07 1999 912 26.93
2 BOB 01 1991 918 27.11
3 BOB 04 1977 919 27.14
4 East Pakistan 1963 920 27.17
BOB 01 1990 920 27.17
Gonu 2007 920 27.17
7 Gay 1989 930 27.46
8 ARB 01 2001 932 27.52
9 BOB 01 1979 936 27.64
10 BOB 01 1994 940 27.76
11 Sidr 2007 944 27.88
12 ARB 01 1999 946 27.93
13 Arabian Sea 1963 947 27.97
14 Giri 2010 950 28.05

[dexterlabio]

WOW. Could this go on and become a Cat5-equivalent hurricane and beat Usagi? I don't think this one already reached its peak, favorable condition is still there!

[Hurricane_Luis]

Do not Listen to the IMD. It has 152 knot winds.

2013OCT10 203000 7.4 910.7 152.0 7.4 7.5 7.5
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/PHAILIN.html

Super Cyclonic Storm Phailin

[Extratropical94]

CI still raising...

2013OCT10 200000 7.4 910.7 152.0 7.4 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 4.64 -79.76 EYE 16 IR 81.0 15.67 -89.20 COMBO MET7 41.1

If that satellite estimate becomes official, Phailin would beat the 1999 cyclone for most intense in Indian Ocean recorded history.

Cyclone Year Pressure
hPa inHg
1 BOB 07 1999 912 26.93
2 BOB 01 1991 918 27.11
3 BOB 04 1977 919 27.14
4 East Pakistan 1963 920 27.17
BOB 01 1990 920 27.17
Gonu 2007 920 27.17
7 Gay 1989 930 27.46
8 ARB 01 2001 932 27.52
9 BOB 01 1979 936 27.64
10 BOB 01 1994 940 27.76
11 Sidr 2007 944 27.88
12 ARB 01 1999 946 27.93
13 Arabian Sea 1963 947 27.97
14 Giri 2010 950 28.05

Problem is that even if the JTWC went that low, the IMD would probably stay in the 930/40ish area and they are the ones whose numbers count.

[supercane4867]

1999 Odisha cyclone




Phailin

[supercane4867]

Do not Listen to the IMD. It has 152 knot winds.

2013OCT10 203000 7.4 910.7 152.0 7.4 7.5 7.5

That's still an estimate though, do not assume to be actual intensity

[supercane4867]

JTWC

TPIO10 PGTW 102110
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN)
B. 10/2032Z
C. 15.7N
D. 89.1E
E. ONE/MET7
F. T7.0/7.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0. MET YIELDS A 5.0 AND PT YIELDS A 6.5. DBO DT. CONSTRAINTS
OF TNO CHANGE OF 2.5 IN 24HRS AND MET WITHIN 1.0 OF DT BROKE
DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/1714Z 15.6N 89.4E TRMM
10/2141Z 14.4N 91.6E MMHS
BERMEA

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I would set the initial intensity at 150 knots/175 mph. Insane cyclone.

I am disgusted with the IMD. JTWC has been very conservative today as well. What's new, right?

[HURAKAN]

Doesn't get much better than this

[Grifforzer]

2013OCT10 230000 6.6 910.8 +0.0 129.6 6.6 7.2 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 4.04 -79.34 EYE 15 IR 85.8 15.79

New Delphi ADT reading is at super cyclonic storm. It's all up to IMD to acknowledge that is has reach 6.5 later tonight.

0230 AM IST Kalpana-1 satellite

IMD Dvorak is at 5.5 (105 knots)

[stormkite]

Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale


Category Sustained winds Gusts

Five > >107 kt >200 km/h >151 kt >279 km/h
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Cyclone Intensity
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 OCT 2013 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 15:44:14 N Lon : 88:58:26 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 924.6mb/137.4kt



I think the Aussie scale sum's up this cyclone best. Its a cat 5 cyclone known in our region as a Catastrophic storm

[CrazyC83]

Phailin is about three times the size of the 1999 storm as well...

Yeah I agree 150 kt seems about right, at least. For all we know the central pressure could be sub-900.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track at 135kts.

02B PHAILIN 131011 0000 15.8N 88.8E IO 135 922

[Ntxw]

What a spectacular looking storm. I know Usagi so far has been the best looking/strongest system in the NH but Phailin is going to give it a run for the money.