SIO: BERGUITTA - Post-Tropical

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SIO: BERGUITTA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:34 pm

New invest near 15S. I believe this is the thing GFS and ECMWF have been blowing up for quite some time.
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SIO: 97S - Invest

#2 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:13 pm

97S INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 12, 2018:

Location: 15.0°S 69.1°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
Image

Image


@/144hrs Both globals running with a system following 97s.
Image

Image

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1801120000
hurricane model


Image




Image
strong cold front trough pass's south,then a ridge builds in from the west under the system.
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SIO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S JTWC

#3 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:08 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120121ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 66.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 577 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION LOCATED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 06S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 121717Z AMSU 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LLCC WITH THE CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20
KNOTS) AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 06S
WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE WEST WITH A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH
TAU 48. TC 06S WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. TC 06S
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO IMPROVED OUTFLOW
CHANNELS AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 06S WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 96 WITH A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE. A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL ACCELERATE AND STEER TC 06S
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BEGINNING NEAR TAU 96. DUE TO THE LACK OF A
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE TRACKS, ESPECIALLY AS TC 06S BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER
TAU 96 THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TC 06S WILL TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 120130) .Image





WTIO20 FMEE 121217 CCA
...............CORRECTIVE..............
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 12/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 67.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 75NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
350NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25KT.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/13 AT 00 UTC:
18.0 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H, VALID 2018/01/13 AT 12 UTC:
18.6 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS AT THIS STAGE





Image
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Re: SIO: 06S - Tropical Disturbance 3

#4 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:57 pm

Oficially, Reunion Island RSMC has this classified as Tropical Disturbance 3, through it is almost certainly a TS now.
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SIO: Tropical TROPICAL DEPRESSION

#5 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:23 am

Cyclone advisory
WARNING NR NR06/03 13/01/2018 0100 UTC
SYSTEM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NAME --
POSITION NEAR 17 ° 1 S - 65° 9 E 13/01/2018 0000 UTC
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 HPA
MAXIMUM AVERAGE WIND (10 mn) NEAR THE CENTRE 30 KT (55 KM/H)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND (1 mn) NEAR THE CENTRE 35 KT (65 KM/H)
GUST MAXI 45 KT (85 KM/H)
CI NUMBER (DVORAK SCALE) CI 2.5
MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS W/WSW 10 KT ( 18 KM/H)
OTHER INFORMATION SYSTEM SMALL IN DIAMETER .INCREASING


Image

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reu ... 172018.pdf
Upgraded to TD 0600

WTIO31 FMEE 130610
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER OF THE MEETING
CYCLONIC FORECASTING AND PRECISION BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 2/3/20172018
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3
2.A POSITION AT 0600 UTC LE 13/01/2018:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM POINT 17.7 S / 65.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DEGREES SEVEN SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DEGREES TWO EAST)
DISPLACEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIO: 06S - Tropical Disturbance 3

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:56 am

The JTWC forecast map colors is much better than the previous pale blue one.
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Re: SIO: 06S - Tropical Disturbance 3

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:57 am

Image

WTXS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.8S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.8S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.8S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.6S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.6S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.1S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 64.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
130511Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35-40 KNOT WIND
BARBS AND IS ON THE UPPER END OF THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15
KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 06S HAS WELL ORGANIZED POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK TO
THE WEST IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER
TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY BEFORE FINALLY
ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, REACHING A PEAK OF 95
KNOTS AROUND TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE TRACK DUE TO THE LACK OF A DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THIS IS
PRODUCING A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE QUASI STATIONARY
PERIOD. HOWEVER, IN GENERAL THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM TRACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE LONG TERM. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: 06S - Tropical Disturbance 3

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:48 am

When is named it will be BERGUITTA.
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Re: SIO: 06S - Tropical Disturbance 3

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:13 am

@iCyclone
Developing #cyclone in SW Indian Ocean (soon-to-be #BERGUITTA) could go for the Triple Whammy: #Maurice, #LaReunion, & #Madagascar.


 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/952142998896132096


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Re: SIO: 06S - Tropical Disturbance 3

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:59 am

JTWC upgrades to TC BERGUITTA.

Image
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Re: SIO: BERGUITTA - Tropical Cyclone

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:19 pm

@JMGarciaRivera
#Cyclone #Berguitta posing to be a major threat for the Mascarene Islands (#LaReunion & #Mauritius): could be strongest storm there since Dina 2002. RSMC has it at 85kts (10-min), JTWC 90kts in 3 days. Pay attention to this storm if on the islands.


Image

 https://twitter.com/JMGarciaRivera/status/952272965684662273


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Re: SIO: BERGUITTA - Tropical Cyclone

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:13 pm

21:00 UTC JTWC warning at 40 kts.

Image
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Re: SIO:MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

#13 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:59 pm

WTIO20 FMEE 140005
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 14/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 63.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
275NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 125 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/14 AT 12 UTC:
18.1 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/15 AT 00 UTC:
17.7 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=
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Re: SIO:MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

#14 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:08 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 140017 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/3/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)
2.A POSITION 2018/01/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 63.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/14 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/15 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/15 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/16 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 60.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/16 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/17 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/18 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2018/01/19 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+



https://www.google.com/maps/place/18%C2 ... 8.4!4d57.5

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/18 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2018/01/19 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
https://www.google.com/maps/place/20%C2 ... 0.6!4d55.3




Image
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Re: SIO: BERGUITTA - Tropical Cyclone

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:32 pm

JTWC 03:00 UTC warning Up to 50 kts.

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Digital-TC-Chaser

SIO:MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

#16 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:07 pm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_ ... dian_Ocean

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WTIO20-FMEE: RSMC La Reunion Cyclone Warning (Area VIII)

14/0005 (005) MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 995 HPA 18.2°S 63.2°E
13/1813 (004) MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 997 HPA 18.3°S 63.9°E
13/1208 (003) MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 997 HPA 17.8°S 64.5°E
13/0607 (002) TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 999 HPA 17.7°S 65.2°E
12/1217 (001) TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 1000 HPA 16.6°S 67.9°E
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Re: SIO: BERGUITTA - Tropical Cyclone

#17 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:40 am

HWRF model still going with a category 4-5...

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SIO: BERGUITTA Tropical Cyclone

#18 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:52 am

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SIO: BERGUITTA -SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

#19 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:31 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 141814 RRA 2018014 1836
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/3/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)
2.A POSITION 2018/01/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 63.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL
ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 0 / 0 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/15 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/15 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/16 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/16 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/17 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/17 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/18 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/01/19 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5
wxtlist.k: done




looking a much more expanded system than earlier sat-pics.
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SIO:SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BERGUITTA

#20 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:19 pm

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small core TC atm




06S BERGUITTA 180115 0000 17.8S 63.2E SHEM 65 979
JTWC @cat1 intensity.

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