SIO: KELVIN - Post-Tropical

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SIO: KELVIN - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:29 pm

New system to watch as models are agressive on intensity.

As of 18:00 UTC Feb 12, 2018:

Location: 10.5°S 134.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: N/A


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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91P

#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:33 pm

I wonder why it got the 'P' designation. with it west of 135ºE, I think it should have received the 'S' designation.
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SIO: INVEST 91S

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:20 pm

1900hurricane wrote:I wonder why it got the 'P' designation. with it west of 135ºE, I think it should have received the 'S' designation.


And rapidly they changed to the correct one.I changed the first post to 91S.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 91S

#4 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:33 am

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Tuesday 13 February 2018
for the period until midnight WST Friday 16 February 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak tropical low lies about 350 kilometres east northeast of Darwin. It is expected to move in a west southwest direction on Wednesday and Thursday, towards the northern Kimberley. On Friday it is likely to move off the west Kimberley coast. If it remains over water, there is a high chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone over the weekend.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Low
Friday:Moderate




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GFS run with sub 900mb. Can it get this one right. Usually over cooks with these.



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Re: SIO: INVEST 91S

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:29 pm

12z GFS has almost a below 900 mb cyclone as it tracks thru more water while ECMWF goes down to 946 mbs as it tracks thru less water before it goes inland.

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Re: SIO: INVEST 91S

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:24 pm

Upgraded to Medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 133.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY
54 NM SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131253Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH LARGE AREAS OF
FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP IN AS CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DUE TO A NEARBY POINT SOURCE,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) JUST OFFSHORE.
91S IS CURRENTLY CONSOLIDATING OVER LAND, HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE 91S WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. IT
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER 91S WILL TRACK OVERWATER, BUT RAPID
CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGHLY PROBABLE IF AND WHEN
IT DOES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


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Re: SIO: INVEST 91S

#7 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:48 pm

Image


Image


Image
Image
17th EDT GFS18z Broome



http://stormcast.com.au/stormcast.html? ... :null:0#sc
GFS18z was coming in line with the other global models. Looks right the trough to the south should weaken the ridge bringing any vort ashore.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 91S

#8 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:12 am

Image
Image
Organising faster than expected in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low /INVEST 91S

#9 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:03 am

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 2:44 pm WST on Wednesday 14 February 2018

Headline:
A developing tropical low is expected to track across the north Kimberley and may develop into a tropical cyclone off the northwest Kimberley coast on Friday or Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Kuri Bay to Port Hedland, inlcuding Broome.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South 129.3 degrees East, estimated to be 195 kilometres north northeast of Kununurra and 295 kilometres east of Kalumburu.

Movement: west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

A developing tropical low is expected to move over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf late on Wednesday and then across the north Kimberley during Thursday. Late Thursday or during Friday the low is expected to move off the northwest Kimberley coast and may develop into a tropical cyclone during Friday or Saturday.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Kuri Bay and Bidyadanga, including Broome during Friday afternoon. GALES may extend further southwest to Wallal Downs and Port Hedland late Friday or early Saturday.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises that there are no community alerts at present.

Communities between Kuri Bay and Port Hedland, including Broome should listen for the next advice.

Next Advice:[Image
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 91S

#10 Postby WAcyclone » Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:53 am

The five day forecast currently shows a category 3 landfall (Australian scale) just east of Port Hedland. However, note that the uncertainty area is more than 1000 km in diameter covering all possible outcomes from a landfall near Onslow to staying inland the whole time...

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Re: SIO: Tropical Low (was Invest 91S)

#11 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:38 am

On the coast or not, I'd classify now personally.

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Re: SIO: Tropical Low (was Invest 91S)

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:52 pm

Remains at Medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S
133.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 128.2E, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 141314Z 89GHZ METOP-A MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH LARGE AREAS OF
FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP IN AS CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR AN AREA OF STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DUE TO A NEARBY POINT SOURCE,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) JUST OFFSHORE. 91S
IS CURRENTLY CONSOLIDATING OVER LAND, HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE 91S WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. IT
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER 91S WILL TRACK OVERWATER, BUT RAPID
CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGHLY PROBABLE IF AND WHEN
IT DOES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low (was Invest 91S)

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:02 pm

Latest warning goes to cat 3.

Image

Code: Select all

    Time (AWST)   Intensity Category   Latitude
(decimal deg.)   Longitude
(decimal deg.)   Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr   2 am February 15   tropical low   14.7S   127.0E   55
+6hr   8 am February 15   tropical low   15.0S   125.7E   80
+12hr   2 pm February 15   tropical low   15.7S   124.6E   100
+18hr   8 pm February 15   tropical low   16.1S   123.8E   125
+24hr   2 am February 16   tropical low   16.4S   123.0E   145
+36hr   2 pm February 16   1   17.3S   121.4E   180
+48hr   2 am February 17   2   17.9S   120.3E   220
+60hr   2 pm February 17   2   18.5S   119.8E   255
+72hr   2 am February 18   3   18.9S   119.8E   290


Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.7 degrees South, 127.0 degrees East , 60 kilometres southeast of Kalumburu and 150 kilometres northwest of Wyndham .
Movement: west at 21 kilometres per hour .

A tropical low over the north Kimberley is expected to move towards the northwest Kimberley coast during Thursday. Late Thursday or during Friday the low is expected to move off the northwest Kimberley coast and may develop into a tropical cyclone during Friday or Saturday.
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 1 (was Invest 91S)

#14 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:44 pm

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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 1 (was Invest 91S)

#15 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:31 am

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0131 UTC 15/02/2018
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.2S
Longitude: 126.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [240 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 75 nm [140 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 15/0600: 15.8S 125.3E: 040 [080]: 025 [045]: 1004
+12: 15/1200: 16.4S 124.4E: 055 [100]: 025 [045]: 1004
+18: 15/1800: 16.7S 123.4E: 065 [125]: 030 [055]: 1002
+24: 16/0000: 17.0S 122.5E: 080 [145]: 030 [055]: 1002
+36: 16/1200: 17.7S 121.2E: 100 [180]: 045 [085]: 992
+48: 17/0000: 18.2S 120.6E: 120 [220]: 060 [110]: 979
+60: 17/1200: 18.7S 120.6E: 140 [255]: 070 [130]: 970
+72: 18/0000: 19.2S 120.6E: 155 [290]: 080 [150]: 961
+96: 19/0000: 21.3S 121.0E: 200 [370]: 040 [075]: 994
+120: 20/0000: 24.2S 121.1E: 290 [535]: 035 [065]: 996
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 17U is a well-structured low moving over land over the north
Kimberley. It was located using Wyndham radar and visible imagery.

CIMSS shear estimate at 2100 UTC was between 10 and 15 knots with some outflow
both equatorward and poleward.

Conditions are favourable for development with SSTs in the 27-29C range and
generally low wind shear forecast.

W/SW motion will continue today and on Friday due to a mid level ridge to the
south. The system will be close to the coast later today and move offshore
overnight or early Friday and develop into a tropical cyclone during Friday.
Development may be earlier if the system moves offshore between Kuri Bay and
Cape Leveque.

On Saturday, an approaching mid level trough will assist steering the system to
the south. Intensification to category 2 is likely early Saturday and to
category 3 as the system approaches the east Pilbara coast. Coastal crossing is
expected during Sunday between Bidyadanga and Pardoo, or early Monday if the
track is a bit further west towards Port Hedland.

There is some uncertainty in the track, including forecast motion. Some NWP
ensemble members have a track further west, this is accounted for in the
uncertainty zone which extends just to the east of Karratha. There is also a
spread in the coastal crossing time, ranging generally from early Sunday to
early Monday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/0730 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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SIO: Tropical Low 17U

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:25 am

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0715 UTC 15/02/2018
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 125.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [226 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 15/1200: 16.8S 124.7E: 040 [080]: 030 [055]: 1000
+12: 15/1800: 17.1S 123.7E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 1000
+18: 16/0000: 17.3S 122.5E: 065 [125]: 030 [055]: 1000
+24: 16/0600: 17.6S 121.7E: 080 [145]: 040 [075]: 994
+36: 16/1800: 18.1S 120.9E: 100 [180]: 055 [100]: 981
+48: 17/0600: 18.6S 120.5E: 120 [220]: 065 [120]: 973
+60: 17/1800: 19.1S 120.6E: 140 [255]: 075 [140]: 963
+72: 18/0600: 19.7S 120.8E: 155 [290]: 080 [150]: 960
+96: 19/0600: 22.4S 121.3E: 200 [370]: 035 [065]: 994
+120: 20/0600: 25.6S 121.8E: 290 [535]: 035 [065]: 995
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 17U is a well-structured low moving over land over the northwest
Kimberley. It was located using visible imagery.

CIMSS shear estimate at 0300 UTC was between 10 and 15 knots with some outflow
both equatorward and poleward.

Conditions are favourable for development with SSTs in the 27-29C range and
generally low wind shear forecast.

W/SW motion will continue today and on Friday due to a mid level ridge to the
south. The system will be close to the coast later today and forecast to move
offshore overnight or early Friday and develop into a tropical cyclone during
Friday. Development may be earlier if the system moves offshore between Kuri Bay
and Cape Leveque.

On Saturday, an approaching mid level trough will assist steering the system to
the south. Intensification to category 2 is likely late Friday or early Saturday
and to category 3 Saturday afternoon as the system approaches the east Pilbara
or far west Kimberley coast. Coastal crossing is expected during Sunday between
Bidyadanga and Port Hedland.

There is some uncertainty in the track, including forecast motion. Some NWP
ensemble members have a track further west, this is accounted for in the
uncertainty zone which extends just to the east of Karratha. There is also a
spread in the coastal crossing time, ranging generally from early Sunday to late
Sunday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1330 UTC by Perth TCWC.


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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 17U

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:00 pm

TCFA issued.

Image

WTXS21 PGTW 151400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7S 125.0E TO 19.1S 119.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 124.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 128.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151113Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH RESURGENT
FLARING CONVECTION. THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON
THE COAST, DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS STILL OVER
LAND. STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND RADIAL OUTFLOW IN THE VICINITY OF
91S ARE FUELING THE DEEP CONVECTION. 91S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VWS, WHICH IS SHEARING THE CONVECTION FROM THE
LLCC. FAVORABLE WARM SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS) AND LOWER VWS AWAIT 91S
ONCE IT EMERGES OVER WATER TO THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT
91S WILL TRACK OVER WATER IN 18-24 HOURS AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161400Z.
//
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 17U

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:07 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1900 UTC 15/02/2018
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.2S
Longitude: 123.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [242 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 16/0000: 17.4S 122.1E: 040 [080]: 030 [055]: 998
+12: 16/0600: 17.6S 121.5E: 055 [100]: 040 [075]: 994
+18: 16/1200: 17.9S 121.0E: 065 [125]: 045 [085]: 990
+24: 16/1800: 18.1S 120.7E: 080 [145]: 050 [095]: 985
+36: 17/0600: 18.6S 120.3E: 100 [185]: 060 [110]: 977
+48: 17/1800: 19.1S 120.4E: 120 [220]: 075 [140]: 963
+60: 18/0600: 19.7S 120.6E: 140 [255]: 080 [150]: 960
+72: 18/1800: 20.8S 120.9E: 155 [290]: 050 [095]: 985
+96: 19/1800: 24.0S 121.4E: 200 [370]: 035 [065]: 995
+120: 20/1800: 27.2S 122.0E: 290 [535]: 035 [065]: 995
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 17U is a well-structured low moving over land over the northwest
Kimberley. It was located using Broome radar, animated IR imagery and surface
observations.

Conditions for development are very favourable once this system gets over open
water. SSTs are in the range 27-29C. Wind shear is low [less than 15 knots over
the centre by the CIMSS analysis at 1200 UTC] and there is evidence of outflow
channels both equatorward and poleward.

Favourable environmental conditions are expected continue for the next two days.
Hence the system is expected to steadily intensify and a period of rapid
intensification could occur.

W/SW motion will continue during Friday due to a mid level ridge encircling the
southern side of the system. Models indicate that during Saturday an approaching
upper trough will erode the ridge to the southwest of the system centre,
encouraging a more southerly motion. The steering pattern is quite finely
balanced during this period and this is reflected in model scenarios that show
the system moving further west, or doing a loop off the coast before southerly,
or even southeasterly, motion is established.

The track uncertainty during this period leads to uncertainty in the coastal
crossing time, but a crossing near 80 Mile Beach some time on Sunday is most
likely. Favourable conditions for development make a Severe coastal crossing
likely.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia


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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 17U

#19 Postby euro6208 » Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:56 am

Image

Very quick intensification in the cards.

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZFEB2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 121.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 121.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.6S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.9S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.1S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.2S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.0S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 23.7S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 121.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46 NM WEST OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION THAT IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OVER WATER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 160600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDING AND THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 160143Z
METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS 25 KNOT WINDS, BASED ON IMPROVING
CONVECTION AND THE PRESENCE OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR (10 KNOTS) ALONG
WITH VERY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TC 10S,
ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AND 80 KNOTS
BY TAU 48. TC 09P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND LITTLE MOVEMENT AS TC 10S BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER TAU 48 THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 10S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE INDICATING A NEARLY 100NM WIDE
SPREAD WHEN TC 10S MAKES LANDFALL. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND
170900Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 151400).//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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euro6208
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 17U

#20 Postby euro6208 » Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:08 am

EURO keeps it over water for almost 2 days and is much stronger than GFS.
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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