SIO: GABEKILE - Post-Tropical

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Nancy Smar
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SIO: GABEKILE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:40 am

94S INVEST 200213 1200 14.8S 75.0E SHEM 20 1008
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Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#2 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:40 am

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 75.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 75.3E, APPROXIMATELY 475
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN 130814Z AMSR2
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE
WITH SLOW EASTWARD TO POLEWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#3 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:41 am

Convection maintained overnight and even wraps around a now well-defined circulation near
14.5S/74.5E at 1030Z. This morning ASCAT-A swath shows a surface circulation still elongated but
with max winds reaching 20kt North and South of the center. The central pressure is estimated at
1007 hPa. Within conducive environmental conditions, especially aloft, a significant strengthening
is awaited over this week-end. The american model (GFS) is now in agreement with the euro
scenario (IFS) from yesterday's 18Z run, and forecast a significant strengthening. Moreover, the
cyclogenesis signal clearly increased within the ensemble prediction.

The risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm over the center of the basin becomes
moderate Saturday and then high from Monday.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#4 Postby aspen » Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:54 pm

The models only started picking up on 94S yesterday, and now it looks like it will be a quick, compact system, possibly akin to Ambali from earlier this season. The GFS is forecasting a very compact ~970 mbar system between 18z tomorrow and 06z Sunday before weakening.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:23 pm

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Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#6 Postby aspen » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:08 am

A really tiny eyewall is trying to close off: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 151224.gif
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Re: SIO: INVEST 94S

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:28 am

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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone

#8 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:30 pm

Looks like it's outdoing expectations in the near term. Probably a typhoon equivalent right now.
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone

#9 Postby aspen » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:26 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Looks like it's outdoing expectations in the near term. Probably a typhoon equivalent right now.

Given how compact and quickly developing it is, as well as the presence of a clearing eye, I’d put Gabekile at 80-90 kt. It’s probably going to be just 55-65 kt in the 18z best track update, though.
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone

#10 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:56 pm

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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone

#11 Postby aspen » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:32 pm

Called it. They went with 55 kt.
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone

#12 Postby aspen » Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:14 pm

W eye within a symmetrical CMG/CDG CDO. Looks like it’s about to bomb.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 151945.jpg
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone

#13 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:24 pm

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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:11 pm

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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone

#15 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:33 pm

~85-90 kt looks like a good assessment to me as well at the current moment.
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone

#16 Postby aspen » Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:40 pm

The eye seems to be having some trouble clearing out. It was clearer a few hours ago, even though microwave presentation is great.
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone

#17 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:17 pm

All the microwave estimates have been way above JTWC.

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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:46 pm

Still a little bit low.

16S GABEKILE 200216 0000 18.4S 74.6E SHEM 75 981
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Re: SIO: GABEKILE - Tropical Cyclone

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:08 am

Remains at 75 kts.

16S GABEKILE 200216 1200 20.2S 75.0E SHEM 75 978
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