SIO: ELOISE - Severe Tropical Storm


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cycloneye
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SIO: ELOISE - Severe Tropical Storm

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:43 am

90S INVEST 210112 0600 9.0S 101.8E SHEM 15 1005
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Re: SIO: INVEST 90S

#2 Postby aspen » Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:57 pm

Seems to be getting itself together decently well. Model show this becoming a TC within 24-48 hours, potentially with a small core, so it could be prone to rapid and unexpected intensity swings.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 90S

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:37 pm

Image
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Re: SIO: ELOISE - Moderate Tropical Storm

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 17, 2021 5:00 am

ZCZC 034
WTIO30 FMEE 170628
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 62.4 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 425 SW: 425 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/17 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 45
24H: 2021/01/18 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95
36H: 2021/01/18 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 100
48H: 2021/01/19 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 100
60H: 2021/01/19 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 65 NW: 35
72H: 2021/01/20 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 20 NW: 130
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/21 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
120H: 2021/01/22 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 380 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 55
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5
OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, CONVECTION MAINTAINED WELL OVER THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS CLEAR AS
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ONLY LOCATED ON THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WHILE DRY AIR IS OCCUPYING THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HOWEVER, THE LAST 37GHZ MW IMAGES AVAILABLE (AMSUB 0507Z, SSMIS
0031Z) SUGGEST AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL INNER STRUCTURE WITH
RELATIVELY INTENSE RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. BASED ON THE 0350Z ASCAT-A WIND SCATT DATA WHICH
REVEALED GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUARANT, MAURITIUS
MET SERVICE HAS NAMED THE SYSTEM ELOISE AT 05Z. CURRENT INTENSITY IS
THUS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE RSMC DVORAK ESTIMATE.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MIXED. THE
EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS OMNIPRESENT WITH MID-TROPOSPHERE DRY AIR
LOCATED IN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION, WHILE THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. IN THIS
CONTEXT, A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. TUESDAY, THE PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION COULD INCREASE A BIT BEFORE LANDFALL AS THE UPPER
SHEAR CONSTRAINT BEGINS TO EASE OFF. AS A QUICKER MOTION THAN
ANTICIPATED COULD DECREASE THE EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT, THE
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS LOW.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID SUBTROPICAL LOW RIDGE WHICH
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS UNTIL MONDAY. THEN, A TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO CIRCULATE ON THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, CAUSING A
WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE BELT. THE TRACK SHOULD BEND
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, AND ELOISE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN
MADAGASCAN COAST.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT LANDFALL BUT
THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS AND STORM SURGE OVER SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR MAINLY BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE
NORTH AND TAMATAVE TO THE SOUTH. A LANDFALL AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY, ELOISE SOULD COME BACK OVER SEA ON THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. A
NEW INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS AWAITED WITHIN CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: ELOISE - Moderate Tropical Storm

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:28 pm

Image
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Re: SIO: ELOISE - Moderate Tropical Storm

#6 Postby aspen » Sun Jan 17, 2021 7:37 pm

Regeneration in the Mozambique Channel is looking more probable today. However, I remember a previous SWIO cyclone was expected to regenerate there, and it just died over Madagascar. We’ll have to wait another few days to see if it survives.
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Re: SIO: ELOISE - Moderate Tropical Storm

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 17, 2021 8:24 pm

ZCZC 227
WTIO30 FMEE 171901
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 59.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 425 SW: 425 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/18 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 295 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 65
24H: 2021/01/18 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
36H: 2021/01/19 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75
48H: 2021/01/19 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 65
60H: 2021/01/20 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SW: 415 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 45
72H: 2021/01/20 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/21 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 500 SW: 415 NW: 240
120H: 2021/01/22 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 520 SW: 415 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 130
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5;CI=2.5
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED SHEARED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A
CENTER, LOCATED WITH THE HELP OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY, AT THE
SOUTH-EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. IN THE ABSENCE OF
OBJECTIVE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES BUT BELOW THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WHICH
ARE AT 40-45 KT.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
AMBIVALENT. THE EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS OMNIPRESENT WITH
MID-TROPOSPHERE DRY AIR LOCATED IN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CIRCULATION, WHILE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. IN THIS CONTEXT, A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT COULD EASE OFF, FIRST IN THE
UPPER LEVELS THEN AT THE MID-LEVELS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ELOISE COULD ACCELERATE BEFORE LADNFALL AS SUGGESTED BY SOME MODELS
(HWRF, ARPEGE, UKMO). THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY
PREDICTION IS LOW.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE
NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUTROPICAL RIDGE. TUESDAY,
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AND COULD DRIVE A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD INFLECTION OF THE TRACK.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS BACK UP AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY WHICH
SOULD PREVENT ELOISE FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING SOUTHWARDS. THE EURO
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DISPERSION IS WEAKER THAN NORMAL,
WHICH YIELDS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT LANDFALL BUT
THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS AND STORM SURGE OVER SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR MAINLY BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE
NORTH AND TAMATAVE TO THE SOUTH. A LANDFALL AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY REMAINS A REAL POSSIBILITY.
LATE THURSDAY, ELOISE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA ON THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. A NEW INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS AWAITED WITHIN CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.=
NNNN
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Re: SIO: ELOISE - Moderate Tropical Storm

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 17, 2021 8:25 pm

aspen wrote:Regeneration in the Mozambique Channel is looking more probable today. However, I remember a previous SWIO cyclone was expected to regenerate there, and it just died over Madagascar. We’ll have to wait another few days to see if it survives.


LATE THURSDAY, ELOISE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA ON THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. A NEW INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS AWAITED WITHIN CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.=
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Re: SIO: ELOISE - Moderate Tropical Storm

#9 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Jan 17, 2021 10:17 pm

So is this the same TC as Joshua? Joshua was 10S but this one is listed as 12S. I thought they didn't rename TC's down there any more? Or did it become a remnant low and regenerate?
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Re: SIO: ELOISE - Moderate Tropical Storm

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 18, 2021 8:04 am

ZCZC 441
WTIO30 FMEE 180631
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 56.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 425 SW: 425 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/18 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 140
24H: 2021/01/19 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 110
36H: 2021/01/19 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45
48H: 2021/01/20 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 20 SW: 45 NW: 35
60H: 2021/01/20 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2021/01/21 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 130
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/22 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 205 SW: 85 NW: 45
120H: 2021/01/23 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5;CI=2.5
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN THAT HAS REMAINED SHEARED DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A CENTER, LOCATED WITH THE HELP OF MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, AT THE SOUTH-EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS VIGOROUS OVERNIGHT WITH VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS AND BURST OF LIGHTNING. IN THE ABSENCE OF OBJECTIVE DATA, THE
INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSES BUT BELOW THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WHICH ARE NEAR 45 KT.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
AMBIVALENT. THE EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS OMNIPRESENT WITH
MID-TROPOSPHERE DRY AIR LOCATED IN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CIRCULATION, WHILE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. IN THIS CONTEXT, A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT COULD EASE OFF, FIRST IN THE
UPPER LEVELS THEN AT THE MID-LEVELS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ELOISE COULD ACCELERATE BEFORE LADNFALL AS SUGGESTED BY SOME MODELS.
THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS LOW.
LATE THURSDAY, ELOISE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA ON THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. A NEW INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS AWAITED WITHIN CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE
NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUTROPICAL RIDGE. TUESDAY,
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AND COULD DRIVE A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD INFLECTION OF THE TRACK.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS BACK UP AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY WHICH
SOULD PREVENT ELOISE FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING SOUTHWARDS. THE EURO
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DISPERSION IS WEAKER THAN NORMAL,
WHICH YIELDS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.
THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS AND STORM SURGE OVER SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR MAINLY BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE
NORTH AND TAMATAVE TO THE SOUTH. A LANDFALL AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY REMAINS A REAL POSSIBILITY, ALTHOUGH LESS LIKELY BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES ON ASSOCIATED HAZARDS OVER MADAGASCAR:
-HEAVY RAINS: THIS IS THE MAIN DANGER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.THOSE HEAVY RAINS
WILL THEN SPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INLAND ALONG ELOISE'S
TRACK AND OVER LARGE PART OF NORTH-WESTERN REGIONS OF MADAGASCAR,
WHERE THE PASSAGE OF ELOISE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE MONSOON RAINS.
GENERALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNT UP TO 100 MM / 24H ARE EXPECTED ON THESE
AREAS REACHING MORE THAN 200 MM / 24H IN SOME PLACES.
THESE HEAVY RAINS CAN GENERATE FLASH FLOODS, WIDESPREAD FLOODINGS AND
LANDSLIDES.
- STRONG WINDS: THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 100 KM/H THAT CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO LIFE AND PROPERTIES.
THESE STRONG WINDS COULD START TO REACH THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OR TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL SYSTEM INTENSITY AT THAT TIME.
- WAVE AND STORM SURGE: THE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, VERY
MODERATE AT LEAST INITIALLY AT 2M50-3M, WILL START TO AFFECT PORTION
OF COASTAL REGIONS LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTIES, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING IS BASED
ON STORM SURGE OF LESS THAN 1M ALONG THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA.=
NNNN


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Re: SIO: ELOISE - Moderate Tropical Storm

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 18, 2021 8:06 am

Weather Dude wrote:So is this the same TC as Joshua? Joshua was 10S but this one is listed as 12S. I thought they didn't rename TC's down there any more? Or did it become a remnant low and regenerate?


It changed to Eloise when it moved out from the BOM area. I splited the Joshua posts to now have it's thread.
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Re: SIO: ELOISE - Moderate Tropical Storm

#12 Postby Weather Dude » Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:So is this the same TC as Joshua? Joshua was 10S but this one is listed as 12S. I thought they didn't rename TC's down there any more? Or did it become a remnant low and regenerate?


It changed to Eloise when it moved out from the BOM area. I splited the Joshua posts to now have it's thread.

That makes sense. I just thought they stuck with the same name now instead of renaming it
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Re: SIO: ELOISE - Severe Tropical Storm

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:16 pm

ZCZC 841
WTIO30 FMEE 190023
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/7/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 52.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: NW: 75
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/19 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
24H: 2021/01/20 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 55
36H: 2021/01/20 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2021/01/21 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 95
72H: 2021/01/22 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/23 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 350 SW: 240 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
120H: 2021/01/24 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 335 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 60
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED: WITH PEAKS THAT
HAVE WARMED UP BUT A PATTERN THAT IS GRADUALLY MIGRATING INTO AN
ILL-DEFINED EYE CONFIGURATION, ELOISE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
INTENSIFICATION. GMI MICROWAVE DATA FROM 2110UTC SHOWS ALMOST AN EYE
WHICH PLEADS FOR THE PASSAGE TO THE THRESHOLD OF STRONG TROPICAL
STORM. A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 3.5 ALSO ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE WINDS OF THE
ORDER OF 50KT.
NO CHANGE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ELOISE WILL CONTINUE IN
A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WEST DIRECTION ON THE NORTH-WEST FACE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, ELOISE SHOULD REACH MADAGASCAR
TODAY IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE MASOALA PENINSULA. TRANSITING THEN ON
LAND FOR NEARLY 30 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL COME OUT ON SEA STILL ON
THE NORTHWESTERN FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THE LONGER TIME,
ELOISE KEEPS A SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK WHICH SHOULD BRING IT TO THE LEVEL
OF THE AFRICAN COASTS AT THE END OF 5 DAYS.
DURING THIS DAY ON TUESDAY AND BEFORE THE NEXT LANDING, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN MIXED: EASTERN SECTOR SHEAR REMAINS OMNIPRESENT
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE PRESENT OVER A GOOD PART OF
ELOISE'S CIRCULATION EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR. THE ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IN THESE
CONDITIONS, ELOISE SHOULD REMAIN AT THE THRESHOLD OF A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDING. BY THURSDAY, ONCE IT HAS EMERGED OVER
THE SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR RAPID REINTENSIFICATION. IT IS ADVISABLE TO REMAIN
CAUTIOUS ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT THESE LONG INTERVALS, BUT
FOLLOWING MOST OF THE GUIDELINES, ELOISE SHOULD REACH THE CYCLONE
THRESHOLD BEFORE LANDING ON THE AFRICAN COAST.
APPROACHING MADAGASCAR, ELOISE IS DEFINED AS A DANGEROUS SYSTEM WITH
HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN LAST FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS AND STRONG WINDS
THAT WILL FIRST CONCERN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE RAINY
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ON THE NORTH-WESTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. PHENOMENA OF WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURGE WILL OCCUR. WAVES
OF A PROBABLE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4M ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF 6M. THE SURGE WILL BE MAINLY MARKED BY THE BAY OF ANTANGIL.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE CONCERNED ZONES ARE INVITED TO BE INFORMED OF
THE CONTINUATION OF THE EVENTS THROUGH THE MALAGASY METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICES.=
NNNN

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Re: SIO: ELOISE - Severe Tropical Storm

#14 Postby aspen » Tue Jan 19, 2021 9:03 am

Mozambique needs to watch out for this. There’s a growing likelihood of Eloise striking as a hurricane-force system, SSTs in the Mozambique Channel are around 30-31C, and the HWRF is showing the possibility of a pinhole eye.

The latest HWRF run has a pinhole try to form, but it undergoes an EWRC and ends up with one of those typical big HWRF eyes. Eloise bottoms out at 924 mbar within 12 hours of landfall, but while it’s bottoming out, the HWRF only has max winds of 80-90 kt at the most. Once the EWRC finishes, it’s around 120 kt at landfall.
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Re: SIO: ELOISE - Severe Tropical Storm

#15 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 19, 2021 9:33 am

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Re: SIO: ELOISE - Severe Tropical Storm

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 19, 2021 10:27 am

ZCZC 460
WTIO30 FMEE 191351
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/7/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 50.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 31 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 75
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/20 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 30 SW: 20 NW: 35
24H: 2021/01/20 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2021/01/21 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 55
60H: 2021/01/22 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35
72H: 2021/01/22 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 35
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/23 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 350 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75
120H: 2021/01/24 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 95
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.0
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, CLEARLY VISIBLE THIS MORNING, WAS
GRADUALLY COVERED BY THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT RESUMED IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RESUMPTION OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS CONFIRMED BY THE MICROWAVE GPM DATA OF 1026Z, WHICH
FURTHER CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL EYE, LESS
WELL DEFINED IN ALTITUDE. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS THE RVM HAS ALSO
DECREASED. ACCORDING TO THESE ELEMENTS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
(COMPLETE DATA OF THE ASCAT-B SWATH OF 0606Z) ARGUE FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE OF WIND INTENSITY OF ABOUT 55KT, JUST BEFORE ELOISE'S
LANDING ON THE MASOALA PENINSULA.
IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, ELOISE CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THE
NORTHWEST FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON THIS TRAJECTORY, ELOISE
IS ABOUT TO LANDFALL THE MASSOALA PENINSULA, SOUTH OF ANTALAHA.
ELOISE WILL THEN TRACK INLAND FOR NEARLY 30 HOURS, TO COME BACK ON
SEA, ON THURSDAY, STILL ON THE NORTHWESTERN FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AT LONGER RANGE, ELOISE KEEPS A SOUTH-WESTERN TRAJECTORY WHICH
SHOULD BRING HER TO THE LEVEL OF THE MOZAMBICAN COAST IN 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER, AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS TO
THE FINAL TRAJECTORY: EITHER ELOISE IS EVACUATED TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES IN A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW IN FRONT OF A TROUGH, OR IT IS
CAUGHT BACK IN A SOUTH-EASTERLY FLOW AT THE MARGIN OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THESE TWO SCENARIOS ARE REPRESENTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MODELS.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY: THURSDAY, ONCE OUT AT SEA IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A RAPID
REINTENSIFICATION. IT IS NECESSARY TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AT TAU 120. ACCORDING TO MOST GUIDANCE, ELOISE
SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE, OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE, BEFORE A POSSIBLE LANDING ON THE MOZAMBICAN COAST.
APPROACHING MADAGASCAR, ELOISE IS DEFINED AS A DANGEROUS SYSTEM WITH
HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN LAST FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS AND STRONG WINDS
THAT WILL FIRST CONCERN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE RAINY
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE PRESENT ON THE NORTH-WESTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. HEAVY SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH SURGE WILL OCCUR. WAVES
HEIHT ABOUT 4M TO 6M ARE EXPECTED. THE SURGE WILL BE MAINLY MARKED IN
THE BAY OF ANTONGIL, AROUND 1M. THE INHABITANTS OF THE CONCERNED
ZONES ARE INVITED TO KEEP INFORMED, THROUGH THE MALAGASY
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.=
NNNN


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Re: SIO: ELOISE - Severe Tropical Storm

#17 Postby JetFuel_SE » Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:36 am

aspen wrote:Mozambique needs to watch out for this. There’s a growing likelihood of Eloise striking as a hurricane-force system, SSTs in the Mozambique Channel are around 30-31C, and the HWRF is showing the possibility of a pinhole eye.

The latest HWRF run has a pinhole try to form, but it undergoes an EWRC and ends up with one of those typical big HWRF eyes. Eloise bottoms out at 924 mbar within 12 hours of landfall, but while it’s bottoming out, the HWRF only has max winds of 80-90 kt at the most. Once the EWRC finishes, it’s around 120 kt at landfall.

I'm pretty sure the HWRF has a high-intensity bias in the SHEM in general, although it shouldn't really be discounted.
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