SPAC: LUCAS - Remnants

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Nancy Smar
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SPAC: LUCAS - Remnants

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:59 am

94P INVEST 210123 1200 12.8S 138.0E SHEM 15 0
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:35 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 94P

#2 Postby aspen » Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:50 am

Models are showing this developing into a tiny core system that will stall around in the Gulf of Carpentaria for some time. It might run over land before returning to open water. This has the potential to be an absolute pain to forecast, in terms of both track and intensity, and it could be prone to a phase of RI or ERI due to its compact core and the ridiculously high SSTs of 30-31C.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 94P

#3 Postby aspen » Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:18 pm

12z models: 934 mbar from the GFS, 948 mbar from the Euro, and 958 mbar from the ICON. They have a TC as early as only 24-36 hours out.
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Re: SPAC: 11U - Tropical Low

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:57 am

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Re: SPAC: 11U - Tropical Low

#5 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:31 am

TPPS12 PGTW 310626

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (NE OF CAIRNS)

B. 31/0540Z

C. 13.81S

D. 153.05E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS 2.5, PT YIELDS 3.0.
DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


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Re: SPAC: 11U - Tropical Low

#6 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:35 am

2021-01-31 06Z
- LUCAS (11U) -
Position: 13.9S 153.1E
Intensity: 35kt 994hPa
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Re: SPAC: LUCAS - Tropical Cyclone

#7 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:04 am

FKAU06 ADRM 310659
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210131/0600Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: LUCAS
ADVISORY NR: 2021/4
OBS PSN: 31/0600Z S1354 E15306
CB: WI 60 NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV: E 07KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 994HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 31/1200 S1348 E15424
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 31/1800 S1348 E15542
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 01/0000 S1406 E15718
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 01/0600 S1430 E15900
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 60KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20210131/1300Z
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