SIO: MARIAN - Tropical Cyclone


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Nancy Smar
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SIO: MARIAN - Tropical Cyclone

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Feb 23, 2021 1:33 am

At 2pm WST 23 February a weak tropical low (15U) was located near 13.3S 120.9E, about 540 kilometres north northwest of Broome. It is expected to track to the west and gradually develop, and by Friday there is a high chance of it reach tropical cyclone intensity.
It will move to the south of Christmas Island during Friday, and although it is unlikely to produce gales at the Island, it will result in an freshening of the northwesterly monsoonal flow, and an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. It should then continue to develop over the weekend, well the the northwest of mainland WA.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Moderate
Friday:High
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIO: 15U - Tropical Low

#2 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:51 am

98S INVEST 210223 0600 13.6S 122.5E SHEM 15 0
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Re: SIO: 15U - Tropical Low

#3 Postby Subtrop » Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:50 pm

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.7S 116.3E, APPROXIMATELY 526 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 231900Z GMI
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C)
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE INVEST 98S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY QUICKLY OVER
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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Re: SIO: 15U - Tropical Low

#4 Postby aspen » Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:49 pm

The JTWC has only just upgraded this to a bona-fide TC, but just looking at its satellite presentation suggests it has been one for a while, and the agencies are lagging behind in intensity — again.
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Re: SIO: 15U - Tropical Low

#5 Postby Subtrop » Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:31 am

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:52 pm WST on Friday 26 February 2021

Tropical Cyclone Marian (Category 1) was located at 2:00 pm AWST near 14.5S
98.9E,

that is 340 km southeast of Cocos Island and 860 km west southwest of Christmas
Island and moving west southwest at 31 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Marian will continue tracking to the west southwest passing
south of Cocos (Keeling) Islands tonight but not having any direct impact upon
the islands.

During Saturday it is likely to be moving away from the islands.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 pm AWST.
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Re: SIO: MARIAN - Tropical Cyclone at 70 mph

#6 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:18 am

Don't forget the JTWC!

Image
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Re: SIO: MARIAN - Tropical Cyclone

#7 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:54 am

Image
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Re: SIO: MARIAN - Tropical Cyclone

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:43 am

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Re: SIO: MARIAN - Tropical Cyclone

#9 Postby aspen » Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:28 pm

Marian is having a really hard time getting a nice, solid eyewall, both on IR and microwave imagery. The latter shows that the SE quadrant of the eyewall is much weaker, probably due to dry air eroding at it.
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