SIO: SEROJA - Post-Tropical

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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#41 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:26 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1328 UTC 06/04/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Seroja
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.9S
Longitude: 119.2E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [222 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 991 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 06/1800: 12.4S 118.7E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 994
+12: 07/0000: 12.8S 118.0E: 065 [125]: 040 [075]: 994
+18: 07/0600: 13.4S 117.2E: 075 [135]: 040 [075]: 994
+24: 07/1200: 14.0S 116.5E: 085 [155]: 040 [075]: 994
+36: 08/0000: 15.0S 114.7E: 100 [190]: 040 [075]: 994
+48: 08/1200: 16.2S 113.3E: 130 [235]: 045 [085]: 991
+60: 09/0000: 17.6S 112.1E: 155 [285]: 050 [095]: 988
+72: 09/1200: 18.8S 111.1E: 175 [330]: 055 [100]: 982
+96: 10/1200: 21.6S 109.6E: 240 [445]: 065 [120]: 973
+120: 11/1200: 25.6S 111.3E: 275 [510]: 050 [095]: 984
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Seroja is tracking towards the southwest, away from the
Indonesian archipelago. Latest IR imagery shows deep convection has reduced and
is now displaced to the northeast, partially exposing the LLCC.

Dvorak analysis: FT=2.5 based on MET with a W- 24hr trend. Unable to apply DT
due to a shear pattern with weak T gradient. CI held higher at 3.0. ADT
estimates have decreased to 2.3. No recent SATCON data is available. Final
intensity 40 knots.

The impact of SE wind shear and dry air in the mid levels is likely to persist
in the next 24-36h and some further weakening is possible although the forecast
maintains intensity at 40kn through this period. Beyond that the shear will
become more NE'ly without intrusion of dry air permitting a resumption of
intensification. Model guidance of intensity varies significantly but a category
3 system remains a possibility.

Steady southwest movement is forecast as the mid-level ridge strengthens to the
south through 72-96h. Sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal along
the forecast track and extending a long way south

Interaction with another tropical system to the west [23U] results in a high
level of uncertainty for the extended forecast track and intensity. The most
likely scenario takes the track to the south then turning towards the west coast
of WA by 120h.
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#42 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:11 am

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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#43 Postby aspen » Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:47 pm

The HWRF doesn’t seem very concerned about Seroja’s dry air problems. After 1-2 days of recovery, it shows the system bombing out into a 130 kt/920 mbar Cat 4, its strongest run so far.
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#44 Postby JW-_- » Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:52 pm

Current wind speed is roughly 35 knots the max predicted peak wind speed 105 knots is at Sunday. (ATM)

Image
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap? ... =1&wxstn=0

Image

Image


Image

Image


The Gascoyne region may get blowy when this system transforms to an extratropical one.
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#45 Postby JW-_- » Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:40 am

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0719 UTC 07/04/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Seroja
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.1S
Longitude: 116.8E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [24 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm [260 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 07/1200: 14.7S 115.9E: 045 [080]: 040 [075]: 996
+12: 07/1800: 15.3S 115.1E: 055 [105]: 045 [080]: 996
+18: 08/0000: 15.9S 114.3E: 065 [120]: 045 [085]: 995
+24: 08/0600: 16.5S 113.6E: 070 [135]: 050 [090]: 992
+36: 08/1800: 17.8S 112.4E: 085 [160]: 055 [100]: 989
+48: 09/0600: 19.1S 111.2E: 095 [180]: 060 [110]: 983
+60: 09/1800: 20.3S 110.4E: 120 [220]: 065 [120]: 978
+72: 10/0600: 21.7S 109.6E: 130 [245]: 070 [130]: 975
+96: 11/0600: 25.7S 110.9E: 185 [345]: 055 [100]: 983
+120: 12/0600: 30.9S 119.9E: 270 [500]: 030 [055]: 998
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Seroja was located by visible imagery just east of the deep
convection, evidence of ongoing moderate easterly wind shear.

Dvorak analysis in the 2.5 to 3.0 range but final FT/CI =2.5 based on: DT
2.5-3.0 shear pattern [<0.5deg separation between LLCC and deep convection] and
MET=2.5 based on slight weakening 24hr trend.
ADT estimates have risen to 3.0-3.3 while SATCON not updated since 1737UTC.
Final intensity remains at 35 knots.

Moderate easterly shear combined with slightly drier air continues to inhibit
the circulation which should persist tonight with pulsing convection maintaining
marginal TC intensity. On Thursday shear is forecast to reduce and become NE'ly
as the cyclone moves closer to the ridge axis and moist NW inflow is expected to
support intensification. Sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal
along the forecast track and southwards along the WA west coast. Models are
consistent in developing the cyclone and category 3 system appears more likely
well offshore from the WA coast.

Steady southwest movement is forecast as the mid-level ridge to the south
through 72h [Saturday]. A degree of interaction with tropical low [23U]
currently to the west will assist the SW motion on Friday into Saturday before
commencing a southerly track during Saturday. By Sunday it becomes influenced by
a mid-latitude trough to the south to accelerate it to the southeast towards the
coast. Landfall intensity depends on a range of factors - a more northerly and
earlier landfall has a higher risk of a severe impact, while a later and more
southerly landfall is likely to be weaker. Even then the faster motion is likely
to enhance winds on the northeast quadrant making a category 2 impact the more
likely proposition.

Winds will be higher to the east of the track while rainfall will be enhanced
south of the track.







REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 117.5E.
07APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 584
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED UNDER
THE EASTERN EDGE OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 062304Z SSMIS 91GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS, HEDGED
ABOVE THE PGTW/APRF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35
KNOTS), BASED ON A 07/0100Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.8 (41 KNOTS) AND A
PARTIAL 062305Z SMAP IMAGE SHOWING 48 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 72 THEN RECURVE POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 120
AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DIGS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE VWS BUT IS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 48 AS VWS RELAXES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IMPROVES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PEAK AT 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72 WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING ANTICIPATED BY TAU 120 DUE TO INCREASING VWS, COOLER SST
(27-28C) AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 070000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND
080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#46 Postby WAcyclone » Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:26 am

The combined forecast tracks of Seroja and 23 U nicely show how the latter system will likely get swung around the northern, eastern and then southern sides of Seroja. Seroja itself could later become quite a significant event here in south-west WA. The current forecast track shows it making landfall just north of Geraldton. This area very rarely gets truly tropical cyclones of any kind, so the fact that the BOM mentions the possibility of even a severe (hurricane-force) impact is quite incredible. I believe the last system of comparably high intensity in that area was TC Hazel back in 1979.

Image
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#47 Postby JW-_- » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:45 am

Image
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#48 Postby JW-_- » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:55 am

WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/ ---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 116.3E.
07APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF FLARING, SHEARED
CONVECTION. A 070525Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE AND A 070645Z GMI
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING
INTO A WELL DEFINED LLCC TO GOOD EFFECT AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T2.5-T3.0 (35 TO 45 KTS), AND AN ADT
ESTIMATE OF T3.0. THE SYSTEM REMAINS COCOONED IN A MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, THOUGH THERE IS NO
DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNEL AT PRESENT. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH 72,
BEFORE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 72, AND THEN ACCELERATING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHARK BAY NEAR TAU 108. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY INTO A
GENERALLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DECREASED VWS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, FROM 60
KNOTS TO 110 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE
AXIS, VWS DROPS TO THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE AND A COMPACT POINT SOURCE
DEVELOPS ALOFT OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD, INCREASING SHEAR, COOLER WATERS AND
ULTIMATELY LAND INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER LANDFALL AS IT MOVES EAST OF PERTH. AT
THIS POINT, THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE TRACK FORECAST, BUT THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A
SLIGHT WOBBLE FURTHER WEST IN THE MID-RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AS THE TWO SYSTEMS BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE RECURVE STARTING
TO EMERGE. IN PARTICULAR, THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST IN THE LATEST RUN AND IS NO THE WESTERN-MOST OUTLIER AMONGST
THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS A NOD TOWARDS THE ECMWF, BUT REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
REMAINS MODERATE IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND
080900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#49 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:14 pm

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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#50 Postby JW-_- » Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:53 pm

Image
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#51 Postby JW-_- » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:10 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/aceforecast/hwrf.php
This HWRF unoficial forecast would be a catastrophic outcome. If it was to verify.
Image

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Image
.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Last edited by JW-_- on Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#52 Postby aspen » Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:35 pm

I regret not adding “cannibalistic tropical cyclones” to my 2021 bingo sheet.
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#53 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:53 pm

Image
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#54 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:28 pm

aspen wrote:I regret not adding “cannibalistic tropical cyclones” to my 2021 bingo sheet.

Fujiwharas are always fun...
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#55 Postby JW-_- » Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:44 am

SEROJA :darrow:
Image


27S :uarrow:
Image
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#56 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:55 am

Those exposed LLCs are beautiful. Always fascinating to watch a Fujiwhara interaction.
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#57 Postby JW-_- » Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:54 am

 https://twitter.com/BOM_WA/status/1380019766396588036


https://twitter.com/BOM_WA/status/1380019766396588036
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#58 Postby JW-_- » Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:01 pm

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0129 UTC 09/04/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Seroja
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.0S
Longitude: 110.0E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [223 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [18 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 09/0600: 19.5S 109.4E: 045 [080]: 040 [075]: 992
+12: 09/1200: 19.8S 108.9E: 055 [100]: 045 [085]: 988
+18: 09/1800: 20.1S 108.4E: 060 [115]: 050 [095]: 985
+24: 10/0000: 20.4S 108.1E: 070 [130]: 055 [100]: 980
+36: 10/1200: 21.3S 108.5E: 080 [145]: 065 [120]: 972
+48: 11/0000: 23.4S 109.9E: 095 [180]: 065 [120]: 974
+60: 11/1200: 26.3S 112.6E: 135 [255]: 055 [100]: 981
+72: 12/0000: 29.9S 117.3E: 175 [325]: 045 [085]: 990
+96: 13/0000: : : :
+120: 14/0000: : : :
REMARKS:
After a period of weakening on Thursday, Seroja has commenced intensifying in
the past few hours with deep convection on both microwave [SSMIS at 2240UTC] and
visible imagery in bands north and south of the centre.

Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=3.0 based on MET. Technically DT=2.5 based on 0.4 curved
band pattern, but this does not reflect that there are multiple bands that is
heralding an emerging stronger system. ADT estimates are in the range of 2.4
[NESDIS] to 2.8 [CIMSS] and SATCON [18UTC] at 44 kn. Earlier ASCAT passes
[13-15UTC] had 35-40kn in eastern quadrants. Intensity set at 40kn.

Intensification should continue today and tomorrow as the shear [CIMSS 18UTC: E
at 12kn] eases and warm sea surface temperatures. There is the potential for
Seroja to reach category 3 intensity over the weekend with a poleward outflow
channel expected to develop due to an approaching upper trough to the west of
the system. The intensification process of Seroja may be complicated or enhanced
by the close proximity of TC Odette on Saturday.

Tropical cyclone Seroja is forecast to track towards the southwest over open
waters today under the influence of a mid-level high situated to the east of the
system and then take a slow southerly track on Saturday. On Sunday, Seroja is
expected to turn to the southeast due to an approaching mid-latitude trough from
the west and accelerate towards the west coast of Western Australia before
making landfall during late Sunday or early Monday between Carnarvon and Jurien
Bay, an area not accustomed to tropical cyclones making impacts more
significant.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/0730 UTC.
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#59 Postby aspen » Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:49 pm

A rare bust for the HWRF. Seroja has taken longer to recover than expected and has been very broad, so it will likely not hit the high end Cat 4 intensity the HWRF was forecasting for days. A major isn’t very likely anymore either.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20

I am neither a meteorology student nor a professional, I'm just a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

JW-_-
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Re: SIO: SEROJA - Tropical Cyclone

#60 Postby JW-_- » Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:44 am

Image


09/0530 UTC 20.0S 109.6E T3.5/3.5 SEROJA
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/tropclass.txt
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