SWIO: Ava - Extratropical

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SWIO: Ava - Extratropical

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:41 pm

The SWIO appears to be on the eve of some tropical cyclone activity. Guidance is in pretty good agreement on a tropical cyclone approaching Madagascar. Both MFr and JTWC have begun to take notice.

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Last edited by 1900hurricane on Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:11 am, edited 9 times in total.
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Re: SWIO: Invest 94S

#2 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:00 am

Image
looks a strong tc on EC
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Re: SWIO: Invest 94S

#3 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:51 pm

AWIO20 FMEE 281246
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2017/12/28 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The South-West Indian Ocean basin remains in a Monsoon Trough (MT) pattern west of 80E axed
between 09S and 11S. The associated convection is weak to moderate in the slowing area of the
monsoon flow, north of the Mozambique Channel and in the trade wind one east of 80E.
Meanwhile, it increased near the area of disturbed weather located within the MT, South-West of
Diego Garcia.
Area of Disturbed Weather to the South-West of Diego-Garcia:
During the past 24 hours, deep convection maintained near the circulation, thanks to good upper
conditions (especially an excellent upper divergence in the western semi-circle). Still, last
microwave data (SSMIS F18 0147Z and SSMI F15 1023Z) show a very elongated circulation,
which is thus preventing the system from deepening at short range. Last model analysis in
agreement with ground observations (ASCAT, buoys,..) suggest that maximal winds are ranging up
to 15 kt and 20kt far from the center, with a MSLP of 1006hPa. Last satellite imagery seem to
indicate, in this broad circulation, a center near 10S/68E at 1030Z. It is currently tracking southwestward
at 5kt.
For the following hours, internal structure not yet efficient, is expected to keep the system from
intensifying rapidly. Over the week-end, while moving south-westward, due to an increase of the
polar low level convergence and upper divergence and the disappearing of a weak easterly upper
constraint, the circulation is likely to get more symmetric and start a significant deepening. All
numerical guidance is in agreement with this scenario up to Sunday but begin to differ afterwards.
Among determinsitic, UKMO and IFS suggest a slower intensification than GFS. Consequently,
two track scenarios exist for next week, due to the two deepening rate and so to the two steering
flows, one more westward (Europeans) and the other more southward (American). Both EPS show
these two scenarios, and so none are preferred for now.
For the next 5 days, the potential of development of a moderate tropical storm over the basin
becomes moderate on Saturday and then high on Sunday.
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Re: SWIO: Invest 94S

#4 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:09 pm

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looks a TD on sat next nrl micro pass should sort it out.

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A Terminology used for classification of tropical depressions in the South-West Indian Ocean
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
Area of low pressure without organization

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
Low Pressure area with enhanced convection and a cyclonic wind circulation to be not exceeding 27 kts ( 50 km/h)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION
Low Pressure area with organized convection and definite cyclonic wind circulation in which the maximum of the average wind speed is estimated to be in the range 28 to 33 kts (51 to 62 km/h)

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
System in which the winds near the centre is estimated between 34 to 47 kts (63 to 88 km/h)

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
System in which the winds near the centre is estimated between 48 to 63 kts (89 to 117 km/h)

TROPICAL CYCLONE
System in which the winds near the centre is estimated between 64 to 89 kts (118 to 165 km/h)

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
System in which the winds near the centre is estimated between 90 to 115 kts (166 to 212 km/h)

VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
System in which the winds near the centre is estimated to exceed 115 kts (212 km/h)
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Re: SWIO: Invest 94S

#5 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:45 pm

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Elongated low level circulation


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Re: SWIO: Zone of Disturbed Weather 1 (Invest 94S)

#6 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:39 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 291339 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/1/20172018
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1
2.A POSITION 2017/12/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3 S / 67.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/12/30 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
24H: 2017/12/30 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 64.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2017/12/31 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
48H: 2017/12/31 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/01 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/01 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/02 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/03 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE



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Surface circulation not looking v/elongated like before.

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Incoming cckw likely to stir swio up, then the maritime region as progress east.
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Re: SWIO: Zone of Disturbed Weather 1 (Invest 94S)

#7 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:21 am

WTIO30 FMEE 300807 RRB
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION FLUCTUATES CLOSE TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE CENTER WITH MORE OR LESS INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURST.
THE LOW-LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS STILL ELONGATED, LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE
LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
(ASCAT, BUOYS, ..) ALLOW TO ESTIMATE MAX WINDS OF ABOUT 15/20KT AND A
CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 1005HPA.
SCENARI OF MERIDIAN TRACKS BEGIN TO TIGHTEN, SO A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD
TRACK IS FAVORED. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT YEAR, THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
POLAR CONVERGENCE AND THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL POLAR DIVERGENCE
ALLOW TO THE BEGINNING OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUGGEST A SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. AFTER A HOLDING PHASE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY MODERATELY FROM THE NEW YEAR.
THIS SYSTEM DO NOT JUSTIFY ISSUING OF REGULAR WARNING AT THIS STAGE.=



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I was thinking it looking better advisers say no still elongated mess Leaves it to 1900hurricane
fo interpretation of nrl images I'm:oops:
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Re: SWIO: Zone of Disturbed Weather 1 (Invest 94S)

#8 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:55 am

I wouldn't really say elongated. That GPM pass above seems to show a fairly symmetric circulation (it should be noted that that pass happened after MFr's 06Z advisory though), but it still looks fairly broad. Sustained convection would help tighten it up, but ZODW 1 appears to be hampered by some easterly shear at the moment.
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Re: SWIO: Zone of Disturbed Weather 1 (Invest 94S)

#9 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:28 pm

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GFS is on cat4-5 crusade atm.


EC is tamer but still a potent system on 12z run. intensifys as it tracks south offshore https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/ma ... 0900z.html
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Re: SWIO: Zone of Disturbed Weather 1 (Invest 94S)

#10 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:45 am

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storm forecast sim
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Re: SWIO: Zone of Disturbed Weather 1 (Invest 94S)

#11 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:28 pm

2017-12-31 1315Z

WTIO30 FMEE 311259 RRB
NO MAJOR CHANGE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED CENTER REMAINS
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (MASKED
UNDER THICK CIRRUS). OVER THE WESTERN SIDE, PULSATING STRONG
CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED MOST OF THE DAY WITH CURRENTLY NO
INDICATION OF REFORMATION OF A NEW SURFACE CENTER.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, MARGINAL OR NO INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (ZONAL FLOW TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM) THAT IMPEDE THE HUMIDITY CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE CENTER AND THE BUILD-UP OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A SLIGHT EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT MAY
ALSO EXIST AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
REMAINS SPLIT. THE RSMC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS BASED ON THE
HYPOTHESIS OF GRADUAL STRENGTHENING LATER THIS WEEK
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH, PASSING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD SLOW
DOWN THE FORWARD MOTION AND GIVE A MORE POLEWARDS TRACK.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST IS LOW REGARDS TO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AND BEYOND DAY 3. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THE
DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVER A BROAD AREA INCLUDING MADAGASCAR AND THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS
FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND
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Re: SWIO: Zone of Disturbed Weather 1 (Invest 94S)

#12 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:01 pm

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real time- earthweather surface wind.
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Re: SWIO: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1

#13 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:34 pm

Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
RSMC Initialized


Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JAN 2018 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 15:20:56 S Lon : 58:23:43 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 997.0mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.8 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -68.1C Cloud Region Temp : -57.2C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Satellite Name : MSG1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.5 degrees




http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... RECAST.01R

Latest Forecast
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Re: SWIO: Zone of Disturbed Weather 1 (Invest 94S)

#14 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:37 am

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Not overly warm sst.


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biggest threat atm may come from flooding.
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Re: SWIO: Tropical Depression 1

#15 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:34 pm

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Re: SWIO: Tropical Depression 1

#16 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:48 pm

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Re: SWIO: Tropical Depression 1

#17 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:52 pm

JTWC TS 03S

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Re: SWIO: Tropical Depression 1

#18 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:57 am

O

WTIO30-FMEE: RSMC La Reunion Forecast Warning

WTIO30 FMEE 030031 RRB
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION MAINTAINED NEAR THE CENTER. THE
CURVATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDINGS REMAINED HIGH BUT THESE CLOUD
PATTERNS HAVE TENDED TO CRUMBLE ON THE LAST IR SAT IMAGES. THE 2324Z
SSMI MW IMAGES CONFIRM A CLEAR GAIN IN ORGANISATION WITH A RING OF
CONVECTION OPENED IN ITS SOUTHERN HALF. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE WHILE WAITING FOR NEWER
AND CLEARER OBSERVATION DATA.
OVER THE LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM SLOWED DOWN PROBABLY BECAUSE OF A
FLAT LOW CIRCULATING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND WEAKENING THE STEERING
FLOW DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE AXED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN.
FROM TOMORROW, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT TO
FORECAST A SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK. A LANDFALL OVER THE MALAGASY
COASTLINE REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AND SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY EVENING. THEN, THE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
SHOWS A HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM RETURNS
OVER SEA SOMETIME DURING NEXT WEEK-END.
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS VERY CONDUCIVE BOTH EQUATORWARD AND
POLERWARD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE LIGHT EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
SHOULD NOT BE VERY SIGNIFICANT AND ALLOW A RATHER FAST PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION. DURING THE WEEK-END, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AT
THE TIME OF ITS POSSIBLE RETURN OVER SEA REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. IN
SUCH A SCENARIO, THE LOW WOULD STILL BENEFIT FROM CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, POSSIBLY LEADING TO A RE-INTENSIFICATION.
THE PERIPHERAL THUNDERSTORMS BANDS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM ARE
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WEATHER ON THE MALAGASY COASTLINES AND ON THE
MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO.=










WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 52.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 022324Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE EVIDENCES IMPROVED
CORE ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK,
DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE AT 28C TO 29C. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, TC 03S IS
TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). CONSEQUENTLY, THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION
THROUGH TAU 12 UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD AND THE
STR RE-ORIENTS AND BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST, PROVIDING A
SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 36
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BUT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR
TAU 48 AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST AND TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 48, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR BUT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER APPROACHING MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS RAPIDLY EVOLVING PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 120.
TC 03S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 BUT MAY REGENERATE AS A SUBTROPICAL
LOW AFTER TAU 120 AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
THE COMPLEX, RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//


https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc18/ ... HREE/atcf/
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Re: SWIO:MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AVA

#19 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:01 am

WTIO30 FMEE 030713 RRA 2018003 0721
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/1/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)
2.A POSITION 2018/01/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 53.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/03 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/04 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/04 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/05 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/05 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/06 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/07 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/08 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 47.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+
wxtlist.k: done



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Re: SWIO: Moderate Tropical Storm Ava

#20 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:52 pm

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