SouthPAC: LINDA - Post-Tropical

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Location: 4.5°S 160.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Coming together maybe a threat to Brisbane with possible flooding down stream.

ABPW10 PGTW 112200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED CORRECTED/112200Z-120600ZMAR2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.6S 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA,
SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT
SOURCE ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS
MEDIUM.

[wxman57]

Satellite & ASCAT indicate it's a depression.

[wxman57]

Could be a tropical storm now. ASCAT just missed it, so can't confirm.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like JTWC has it labeled as 13P.

13P THIRTEEN 180312 1200 15.7S 159.9E SHEM 35 998

[wxman57]

The Australia BoM is the official agency for that area, and all they're saying is that it is an area of low pressure. Dvorak near 3.0 now. Looks like a 45kt TC to me. I think the BoM will recognize that pretty soon and name it - assuming it has 34+ kt winds in at least three quadrants (to qualify).

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

looks clear cut @45kts

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:16 pm EST on Tuesday 13 March 2018
At 4 pm AEST Tuesday, Tropical Cyclone Linda (Category 1) with central pressure
994 hPa was located in the Coral Sea near latitude 19.3 south longitude 159.5
east, which is about 880 km northeast of Sandy Cape and 1100 km east of Mackay.

Tropical cyclone Linda, a category 1 cyclone, has formed in the Coral Sea.
Tropical cyclone Linda is expected to continue to move southwest towards the
Queensland coast for the next 24 hours, before turning south and ultimately
southeast away from the coast again.

On Wednesday, conditions will become unfavourable for tropical cyclone Linda,
and it is expected to transition into an intense subtropical low.

At its closest approach to the coast, the remains of tropical cyclone Linda
will generate large waves and dangerous surf conditions about exposed southern
Queensland beaches. Tides are also expected to be higher than normal,
particularly on Thursday morning's high tide. A severe weather warning is
current for these conditions.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 159.5E.
(TC) 13P (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 403 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CORE CONVECTION
ENSHROUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE SSTS (27 TO 29C). TC 13P WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR BEFORE TURNING
TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND TAU 36. AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE AND TC 13P WILL WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED
EAST OF THE CONSENSUS TO ADJUST FOR THE INFLUENCE OF TWO OUTLIERS
(AFUM AND EGRR) WHICH SUGGEST A SOUTHWEST TRACK INTO AUSTRALIA.
OVERALL, JTWC HAS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEED AND INITIAL POSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

AXAU21 ABRF 130723
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0722 UTC 13/03/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Linda
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.3S
Longitude: 159.5E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [193 deg]
Speed of Movement: 17 knots [32 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 13/1200: 20.2S 158.4E: 050 [095]: 040 [075]: 994
+12: 13/1800: 20.8S 157.4E: 065 [120]: 040 [075]: 992
+18: 14/0000: 21.6S 156.4E: 075 [145]: 040 [075]: 992
+24: 14/0600: 22.3S 155.9E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 994
+36: 14/1800: 24.3S 155.5E: 110 [200]: 030 [055]: 997
+48: 15/0600: 26.2S 155.9E: 130 [235]: 030 [055]: 996
+60: 15/1800: 27.6S 156.7E: 150 [275]: 030 [055]: 995
+72: 16/0600: 28.4S 158.0E: 165 [305]: 030 [055]: 994
+96: 17/0600: : : :
+120: 18/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Linda has steadily developed during the past 24 hours. The
system currently lies under northerly deep layer shear of approximately 15-20
knots, and this is evident in the distribution of deep convection around the
system. There is also evidence of dry air wrapping around the northern side of
the system. Despite this, the system has maintained banding and convection near
the centre through today.

Intensity is estimated at 35 knots [10 minute mean]. Dvorak analysis has used a
curved band pattern averaging a 0.6 to 0.7 wrap during the previous few hours.
DT is 3.0. MET is 1.5 and PAT is 2.0. The final T was based on the DT. This
estimate is supported by the morning ASCAT pass suggested marginal gales
extending through the eastern and southern quadrants.

Movement has been to the south during the past 24 hours under the influence of a
mid level ridge to the east, and trough to the west. During the next 24 hours,
an easterly steering influence will build to the south of the system and it
should adopt a more southwesterly track. On Thursday this influence should break
down again, and the system will be steered predominantly by the mid-level ridge
to the east - first southerly, then southeasterly away from the Queensland
coast.

Development is expected to be slow or nonexistent during the next 24 hours. The
system will move into greater deep layer shear associated with an upper trough
over eastern Australia. The interaction with this trough is expected to cause
the system to lose its tropical cyclone structure and transition into a
subtropical low pressure system later on Wednesday.