SIO: ELIAKIM - Post-Tropical

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Digital-TC-Chaser

SIO: ELIAKIM - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:13 pm

99S INVEST
201803110000 -12.9 63.7 20

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SIO INVEST 99S

#2 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:40 pm

SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 75.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 62.8E, APPROXIMATELY 660
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS A POINT
SOURCE ALOFT AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) AND ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST, TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR, REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEYOND TAU 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 75.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SIO TD 7/99S

#3 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:11 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 141822 RRA 2018073 1906
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/7/20172018
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION 2018/03/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 55.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/15 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/15 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/16 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/03/16 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/17 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/17 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/18 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/03/19 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5- CI=2.0
wxtlist.k: done
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WTXS21 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S 56.2E TO 15.1S 52.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 55.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
56.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 55.7E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 140024Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A COHESIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) FROM ALL SIDES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) OVER
99S WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF MADAGASCAR. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 99S REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH (34
KTS) IN 12-24 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF JGSM AND ECMWF
DEVELOPING IT MUCH LATER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD NEAR TERM AGREEMENT AS
99S TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150300Z.//
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https://www.mtotec.com/page-satellite
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SIO Tropical Cyclone 14S

#4 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:00 pm

JTWC upgaded.
Tropical Cyclone 14S (Fourteen) Warning #01
Issued at 15/0300Z

150300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 54.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 383 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WHICH HAS CONSOLIDATED
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IS WRAPPING INTO
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 142303Z SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH AND
INTO THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO
35 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH A POINT SOURCE ALOFT TO THE EAST AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 60
KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF
LAND INTERACTION. ALSO AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE
AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND TURN
TO THE SOUTHWEST, EXITING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. ONCE OUT OVER WATER, TC 14S WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TRACK DIRECTION WITH LARGE VARIATIONS IN THE
TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THE LARGE
VARIATIONS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 140300).//
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http://www.cycloneoi.com/pages/cyclone- ... ivers.html
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SIO Cyclone ELIAKIM

#5 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:03 am

WTIO30 FMEE 150626 RRA 2018074 0706
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/7/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)
2.A POSITION 2018/03/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 54.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 460 SW: 370 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 190 SW: 90 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/15 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/16 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/16 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/17 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/17 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 48.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/18 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/19 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 50.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/03/20 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0
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