ARABIAN SEA: MEKUNU - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

Those in northern Yemen and southern Oman definitely should closely monitor and be prepared. Yemen's Socotra island could also see tropical storm-conditions and copious rainfall amounts within the next couple of days as 02A passes to their east.

[Alyono]

I wonder if Cyclone Gonu changed the climate on this area. Before Gonu, TCs hardly ever struck Oman. When they did, they rapidly weakened as they approached due to massive dry air entrainment. Even Gonu weakened quite a bit. However, it still had winds around 80 kts and brought more than a foot of rain.

Since Gonu, TCs approaching Oman have not really weakened before landfall. Is the area still the very dry desert, or have things changed that make the environment more favorable for TCs?

[shah83]

Ryan Maue tweeted a comparison gif of the Hurricane Ivan water vapor then, and what it would be like now. I sort of think that explains the Gonu thing.

[mrbagyo]

[supercane]

This is officially Cyclonic Storm Mekunu. See the RSMC advisory at http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf. Copied text from the pdf

FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT(THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL STORM ‘MEKUNU’ ADVISORY NO. TWO ISSUED AT 1800 UTC OF 22ND MAY 2018
BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 22ND MAY 2018
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MEKUNU’ OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 12 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED
AT 1500 UTC OF 22ND MAY 2018 OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 10.5N AND
LONGITUDE 56.7E, ABOUT 400 KM SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLANDS (41494) AND 780 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316) (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND INTO A VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM IN SUBSEQENT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS
AND CROSS SOUTH OMAN - SOUTHEAST YEMEN COASTS AS A VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BETWEEN 53E AND 55E CLOSE TO SALALAH DURING 0000 TO
0400 UTC ON 26TH MAY, 2018.

Date/Time(UTC) Position (Lat. N/ long. E) Maximum sustained surface wind speed (kmph) Category of cyclonic disturbance
22/1500 10.5/56.7 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM
22/1800 10.8/56.6 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM
23/0000 11.0/56.5 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM
23/0600 11.5/56.4 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
23/1200 12.1/56.4 100-110 GUSTING TO 125 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
24/0000 13.3/56.0 110-120 GUSTING TO 135 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
24/1200 14.4/55.5 125-135 GUSTING TO 150 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
25/0000 15.0/55.1 140-150 GUSTING TO 165 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
25/1200 15.8/54.6 155-165 GUSTING TO 180 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
26/0000 16.8/54.1 155-165 GUSTING TO 180 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
26/1200 17.9/53.6 110-120 GUSTING TO 130 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
27/0000 19.0/53.0 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM
27/1200 20.1/52.4 40-50 GUSTING TO 60 DEPRESSION

AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1500 UTC OF TODAY, THE 22nd MAY
2018, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.5. THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTWEST
ARABIAN SEA SHOWS CURVED BANDING FEATURES FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST SECTOR ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTOR. ASSOCIATED BROKEN
LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION
LIE OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LATTITUDE 7.00N & 16.50N AND
LONGITUDE 50.00E TO 60.0 0E. MINIMUM CTT MINUS 93 DEG C.
A SHIP LOCATED AT LATTITUDE 12.20N AND LONGITUDE 580 REPORTED MEAN SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1004.4 HPA AND A SURAFACE WIND OF 090/ 25 KTS.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 998 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. STATE OF
SEA IS HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

REMARKS:
MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER
THE SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HRS AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THERE IS ALSO A CONSENUS
AMONG THE MODELS ABOUT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS SOUTH OMAN AND SOUTHEAST YEMEN COASTS DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX NOW LIES OVER PHASE 2 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1.
IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PHASE 2 DURING NEXT 5 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE
MORE THAN 1. HENCE THE MJO IS FAVOURABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA AND ITS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 29-310 C OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA
AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. THERE IS POSITIVE SST ANOMALY
OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS
ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER THE ABOVE REGION.
THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT 250X10-6SEC-1 OVER THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED AND IS ABOUT 50 X10-
5SEC-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 30
X10-5 SEC-1 OVER THE SYSTEM AREA. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO
MODERATE (05-15 KNOTS) NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER (TPW) IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINOUS WARM AND MOIST AIR INCURSION
INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. HENCE THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
(S.D Kotal)
Scientist-E, RSMC, New Delhi

[cycloneye]

MENUKU smells like a rapid intensification candidate with all in it's favor.

[cycloneye]

WTIO31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 10.7N 56.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 56.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.7N 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.7N 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.9N 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.7N 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.0N 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.6N 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.6N 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 56.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 598 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A 221806Z GMI 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY TO THE
EAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL 45 KNOT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE OVERALL FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (31-32
CELSIUS). THROUGH TAU 72, TC 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ALONG THE EDGE OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 02A WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTERLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STR BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. THE CYLCONE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GALWEM TRACKS FURTHER TO THE EAST WHILE NAVGEM
IS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST (IN LATER TAUS) OF THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ALIGNS CLOSELY WITH THE CONSENSUS
TRACK. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD PRESENTED BY THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

TPIO10 PGTW 222050

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SE OF SOCOTRA)

B. 22/2045Z

C. 11.09N

D. 55.97E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .60 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS 3.0
DT. MET/PT 3.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/1806Z 10.73N 56.13E GPMI


DAVIS

I don't think so.

[Sciencerocks]

[mrbagyo]

Mekunu now sports a microwave eye!

[BYG Jacob]

The IMD underestimating another storm, this is likely at or above hurricane strength.

[cycloneye]

Looks like is going thru a RI phase.

[BYG Jacob]

Yup, major incoming.

[doomhaMwx]

Sunrise this Wednesday over intensifying TS Mekunu.


Elektro-L RGB Satellite Imagery
05-23-2018 3:00am UTC

[galaxy401]

Trending westwards towards Socotra. Looks like it's hurricane strength already. Arabian Sea seems to be more active in recent years.

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

Currently classified as a Severe Cyclonic Storm by IMD, while JTWC has it as 60kts as of 06Z. Likely at hurricane/typhoon-intensity already though.

[euro6208]

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR MEKUNU (02A) 2018
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 05230607
SATCON: MSLP = 981 hPa MSW = 64 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 62.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 68 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 190 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 991 hPa 57 knots Scene: CDO Date: MAY230630
CIMSS AMSU: 980 hPa 67 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 05230607
ATMS: 974.1 hPa 78.8 knots Date: 05222153
SSMIS: 974.1 hPa 78.8 knots Date: 05222153

[doomhaMwx]

IMD has upgraded it into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (typhoon/hurricane intensity).

Sub: Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Mekunu’ intensified into Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS)
over Southwest & adjoining Westcentral Arabian Sea
The Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Mekunu’ over southwest Arabian Sea moved northwards with a
speed of 11 Kmph during past 06 hours and intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm and lay
centered at 1430 hrs IST of 23rd May 2018 over southwest and adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea
near latitude 11.8N and longitude 55.9E, about 230 km southeast of Socotra Islands and 610 km
south-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It is very likely to intensify further during next 24 hours.

[NotoSans]

IMD seems to be performing relatively better this time.