SIO: Bouchra - Tropical Cyclone

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Nancy Smar
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SIO: Bouchra - Tropical Cyclone

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:11 am

SH, 93, 2018110212, , BEST, 0, 39S, 888E, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 120, 20, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 93, 2018110218, , BEST, 0, 40S, 883E, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 20, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 93, 2018110300, , BEST, 0, 41S, 879E, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 20, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Sat Nov 10, 2018 4:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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TorSkk
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Re: SIO: INVEST 93S

#2 Postby TorSkk » Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:42 am

93S INVEST 181104 1200 3.2S 90.9E SHEM 25 1004

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Re: SIO: INVEST 93S

#3 Postby TorSkk » Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:46 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2018/11/05 AT 1200 UTC

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin remains in a Near Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern axed between 3 and 7S, on all its
length. Such a configuration is also present in the Northern Hemisphere defining a Double Near
Equatorial Trough pattern (DNET). Convective activity is moderate to severe within the NET,
especially close to the two areas monitored for several days.

Suspect area over the extreme Northeast of the basin:

Last ASCAT swaths (0354Z) show a broad closed circulation located near 4S/87.5E with maximum
winds ranging up to 15kt in the southern semi-circle. Since, convective activity is scattered and
does not indicate any sign of better inner organization, in agreement with last microwave data
(SSMIS 1030Z and AMSR2 0732Z)
At short range, there is no chance for cyclogenesis mostly due to a lack of surface convergence.
From Friday, ahead of an upper trough, divergence is expected to increase which may favor
deepening.

Within the next 5 days, the likelihood that this system become a tropical storm becomes low
from Friday.
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Re: SIO: 04S FOUR

#4 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Nov 10, 2018 4:44 am

04S FOUR 181110 0600 5.5S 90.7E SHEM 35 1006
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Re: SIO: 04S FOUR

#5 Postby TorSkk » Sat Nov 10, 2018 5:51 am

The system is still only a disturbance, with a low probability of organizing further
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Re: SIO: Bouchra - Tropical Cyclone

#6 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Nov 10, 2018 4:31 pm

WTIO20 FMEE 101835
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/11/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 10/11/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.4 S / 89.5 E
(FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 06 UTC:
5.4 S / 88.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 18 UTC:
5.2 S / 88.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED BOUCHRA BY THE MAURITIUS NWS AT 18Z.=
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Re: SIO: Bouchra - Tropical Cyclone

#7 Postby vortextracker » Sat Nov 10, 2018 4:44 pm

2nd cyclone for the region.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 11100756
SATCON: MSLP = 998 hPa MSW = 45 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 42.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 56 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 150 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA




Image
Looks pretty good.


Image
https://imgur.com/EcYMW4O Intensifying atm
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Re: SIO: Bouchra - Tropical Cyclone

#8 Postby vortextracker » Sat Nov 10, 2018 6:12 pm

WTXS32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 5.6S 89.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.6S 89.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 5.4S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 5.3S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 5.4S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 5.7S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 7.1S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 8.4S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.1S 94.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 5.6S 89.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1018 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION AND MOST OF THE RAIN BANDS TO THE
WEST OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM A
101525Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 04S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING INHIBITED BY MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS). THE CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WELL TO THE SOUTH. WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO AN
EASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS A STR BUILDS IN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIMITED
INTENSIFICATION. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A RANGE OF DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS FROM A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK (NAVGEM) TO TRACKS RANGING
FROM EASTWARD (HWRF) TO NORTHWESTWARD (BULK OF THE REMAINING
MEMBERS). THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// [Image




.............................................................................................................................................

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps/
Navy ops model likes this for a cat2 @tau 120 atm
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Re: SIO: Bouchra - Tropical Cyclone

#9 Postby vortextracker » Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:44 pm

urh humm microwave eye
Image
https://imgur.com/yTlgDQz


Image
https://imgur.com/lv8IHjl
pct rain and structure indication of the system.
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Re: SIO: Bouchra - Tropical Cyclone

#10 Postby TorSkk » Sun Nov 18, 2018 5:48 am

Once again a Moderate Tropical Storm according to MFR, JTWC says 45 knots
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Re: SIO: Bouchra - Moderate Tropical Storm

#11 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:15 am

Yep, clearly still going.

Image
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