SIO: Gelena - Remnants

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Nancy Smar
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SIO: Gelena - Remnants

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:51 pm

SH, 97, 2019013118, , BEST, 0, 83S, 574E, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 97S

#2 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:27 am

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 67.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 54.7E, APPROXIMATELY 473
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050105Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-
15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
(29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 97S

#3 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:02 am

WTIO21 FMEE 050640
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 05/02/2019 A 0600UTC.
NUMERO: 001/9 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)
VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE)

AVERTISSEMENT
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 05/02/2019 A 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 9 1002 HPA
POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.4 S / 55.1 E
(DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES UN EST) A 0600 UTC
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT
JUSQU'A 180 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST.

CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT AVEC MER AGITEE A LOCALEMENT
FORTE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 05/02/2019 A 18 UTC:
12.3 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
A 24H POUR LE 06/02/2019 A 06 UTC:
12.4 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES :
NEANT.=
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Re: SIO: Tropical Disturbance 9

#4 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:27 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT - VALID TIME:05/1400Z
Intensity: 25 TO 30 KNOTS. Motion: THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
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Re: SIO: Tropical Disturbance 9

#5 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:48 am

Satellite observations shows that the low evolving in the vicinity of Agalega has also gained strength over the night. Latest numerical weather prediction models agree to intensify this system as well and it is very likely that it will reach the moderate tropical storm stage by tomorrow. It will then be named GELENA. The system will move slowly westward at first and then will move towards the south-east, accelerating towards Rodrigues as from Thursday 07 February 2019. This storm is likely to pass very close to both St Brandon and Rodrigues.
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Re: SIO: Tropical Disturbance 9

#6 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:24 am

FKIO20 FMEE 060621

TC ADVISORY

DTG: 20190206/0621Z

TCAC: REUNION

TC: GELENA

ADVISORY NR: 2019/01

OBS PSN: 06/0600Z S1215 E05321

CB: WI 300NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL540

MOV: NNW 02KT

C: 998HPA

MAX WIND: 40KT

FCST PSN +6 HR: 06/1200Z S1216 E05251

FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 45KT

FCST PSN +12 HR: 06/1800Z S1225 E05240

FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 50KT

FCST PSN +18 HR: 07/0000Z S1244 E05257

FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 55KT

FCST PSN +24 HR: 07/0600Z S1306 E05325

FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 60KT

RMK: NIL

NXT MSG: 20190206/1200Z=
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Re: SIO: Gelena - Tropical Cyclone

#7 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:03 am

40kt "tropical storm" Gelena is also displaying an opening eye. Time for an upgrade, La Reunion...

Image
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Re: SIO: Gelena - Tropical Cyclone

#8 Postby TorSkk » Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:08 am

Image

As of 12Z:
JTWC 45 kn
La Reunion 55 kn
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Re: SIO: Gelena - Tropical Cyclone

#9 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:34 am

JTWC is even worse - 45 kts. Eye is clearing out.
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Re: SIO: Gelena - Tropical Cyclone

#10 Postby vortextracker » Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:00 am

Image
JT thinks a high end 4 135kt 9/00z
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Re: SIO: Gelena - Tropical Cyclone

#11 Postby vortextracker » Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:22 am

[WTXS32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 54.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 54.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.5S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.2S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.7S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.1S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.4S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.7S 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.0S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 55.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 329 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A WELL-DEFINED, 20 NM WIDE, EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS
BASED ON A 080600Z METEOSAT 8 VISIBLE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 13S HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT TC 13S HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS
WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TC 13S IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 28 AND
29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 13S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE
STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE THROUGH TAU 96.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
ALLOW TC 13S TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 140
KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 13S WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS OUTFLOW BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
BEGINS TO DECREASE. BY TAU 96, THE STR WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW TC 13S
TO TRACK MORE EASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
INDICATING A SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD TRACK. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z,
090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: Gelena - Tropical Cyclone

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:01 am

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Re: SIO: Gelena - Tropical Cyclone

#13 Postby Hurricanehink » Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:31 pm

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