SIO: Invest 94S

[TorSkk]

94S INVEST 190218 1800 23.8S 39.1E SHEM 20 1007

(INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 34.6E, IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 23.8S 39.1E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA
ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF VERY
BROAD, ELONGATED TURNING EMBEDDED WITH SEVERAL SMALL VORTICES. A
181455Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THERE IS WEAK, SCATTERED
CONVECTION LINEARLY ORIENTED IN THE AREA. 94S IS LOCATED ON THE CUSP
OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS HAVE EASED OFF
ON SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS INTERACTION WITH
MADAGASCAR WILL INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[TorSkk]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 23.8S 35.1E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

From MFR:

Suspect area over the southern part of the Mozambical channel:

A wide and fully exposed low level clockwise circulation (LLCC) is located in the vicinity of
Europa Island. Minimal pressure is estimated at 1000 hPa according with the Europa ground level
observations. Winds reach 30 kt far of the center within the low level inflows. The northwestward
vertical windshear is strong ahead a dynamic upper level trough . It favors a strong convection with
multicellular cells over southwestern Madagascar coastlines.

Animated water vapor imagery shows that that the upper level trough forcing within the baroclinic
area has shifted over Madagascar and not over the LLCC. In these conditions, the risk of a tropical
transition decreases. The LLCC is forecasted to evacuate toward the south-east as it experiences a
strong vertical windshear.

Within the next 5 days, the risk of development of a moderate tropical storm is moderate
over the southern Mozambique Channel and becomes weak from Thursday.